So, just like last year when I wrote my first official blog post on the topic, here are my early thoughts and predictions on a few of this year's top categories (meaning nothing second-tier like best sound editing or best theme song). And by early, I mean EARLY (award ceremonies don't start until really late August). Due to the lengthy amount of categories, I've decided on splitting it up into three parts: one today and two with dates TBD (but rest assure, they will both be posted before the next of next week). The following is part one
Other Thoughts:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: "Mad Men"
What is there left to say about one of the best TV dramas of the 21st Century? It started out with some slow plot developing episodes but went out strong with three great episodes in a row, including the terrific season finale "Shut the Door, Have a Seat" with plot developments that made every fan of the show immediately excited for the next season to start on July 25th. It had the best acting of any show on TV not named "Breaking Bad," with six acting nominations to prove it. The writing was once again fantastic and, as usual, brought their set of great one-liners. Basically it has, and remains to be, an example of excellence on television. Also, I have yet to see any evidence from this season that the show has declined to a point that it shouldn't get another Emmy or Golden Globe.
Should Win: "Breaking Bad"
With all the talk about how great "Mad Men" was this season, the folks behind "Breaking Bad" wrapped up a season that was as great, or even better than the show set in 1960's New York. As I just mentioned, it has the best acting out of any show on TV. The episodes itself are amazing filled with drama, thrills, suspense, fear and at least one jaw-dropping moment per episode. It consistently keeps you entertained. Also, no offense to "Mad Men," but once you start winning every Emmy or Golden Globe for best drama since the pilot like they have had the pleasure of doing, it starts getting boring after a while.
Other Thoughts: So, basically, it's going to be a two-horse race between the two shows from AMC, with "Dexter" as the dark-horse, the newcomers "True Blood" and "The Good Wife" as longshots and "Lost" finally down gracefully from the TV universe. Also, I've never watched a single episode of the show, but I thought that "Sons of Anarchy" with critics gushing all-season of how great it is would get a nomination. Goes to show you how the Emmy committee likes to think differently.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Will Win and Should Win: "Modern Family"
From the time ABC showed its pilot to critics way back in May of 2009, everything has been nothing short of perfect for "Modern Family." Critics adored it, calling it things like "hilarious" and "the best new show of the season" (though I would often disagree with that). It had the pleasure of being heavily promoted on almost every Disney owned TV station (ex: ABC, ESPN) during the summer. The pilot was placed right after an episode of "Dancing with the Stars" so millions could see how good it was and fall in love with it. Along with "The Big Bang Theory" and "Two and a Half Men," it has consistently ranked as the most watched comedy on TV every week. And now, after 24 episodes over a nine-month span, it has been nominated for 14 Emmys and will be on top of the TV comedy world for years. Basically it has achieved a standard of excellence that any comedy on the planet will try to follow.
Look, I'm not a really big fan of the show like most people are. Personally, I think "Community" and "Parks and Recreations" were much funnier with moments that were more genuine, clever, heartfelt. But they did have some great episodes ("Coal Digger" and the pilot comes to mind for me), and they've revived the family sitcom genre which has been dead for years. They're acting alone should give them the win. Besides, it's not like they have any competition. "The Office" and "30 Rock"? One of their worst seasons yet. "Glee"? Not as good. "Nurse Jackie" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm"? Two good shows, but not quite Emmy-winning stuff. So, on a process of elimination basis, it is the best show on the ballot and should win because of that.
Other Thoughts:
a. Besides "Modern Family," I see "Glee" as the show most likely to win the award. "30 Rock" is the darkhorse with three straight wins in this category. However, the committee usually loves new shows with great first seasons, so there's that.
b. As you might have guessed, I think "Parks and Recreations" and "Community" were snubbed. Especially "Community." I thought the "Modern Warfare" episode would get them an Emmy nod for sure. Meanwhile, "The Office" and "30 Rock" get nominated again in a type of "once a nominee, always a nominee" situation . Oh, well, at least "Entourage" wasn't nominated, right?
c. You gotta give it up to "Curb Your Enthusiasm." This nomination means they join an exclusive club of shows that has been nominated for best comedy seven seasons in a row. And for Larry David, that's the 14th time a show he's created ("Curb," "Seinfeld" has been nominated for best comedy. Makes you wonder who really was the better showrunner in the "Seinfeld" days.
d. Overall, out of all of the nominations in the top categories this year, this was the one with the best example as to why the whole nomination process of having a show submit only one episode and then having the committee judging whether it should be nominated based on only that episode alone seems really outdated and bad. As I just mentioned ninety times in four paragraphs, this season of "The Office" was probably its worst since season one. But the guys in charge of the show probably submitted "Niagara," their best of the season and one of their best episodes ever, and definetly got nominated. "Parks and Recreations" didn't have an episode as good as "Niagara," so they didn't get nominated (although it was more consistently better. Why not just have people who are payed to watch TV all the time make up the nominees? Is that so hard?
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy in "30 Rock"
Winner of the award the last two seasons, Baldwin did a great job once again portraying the GE executive for a fourth year in a row while, just like last year, stealing the spotlight in most of the scenes he is in. Add some not so strong competition, and it looks more likely that we will see a Baldwin three peat.
Should Win: Steve Carell as Michael Scott in "The Office"
Five nominations in a row, no wins yet. Basically, the guy is terribly overdue. And with one more year left on the show, who knows if he will ever win an Emmy.
Other Thoughts: Unlike most of the top acting categories, this one featured the most regular faces, with only Matthew Morrison as the only newcomer. So, just like last year, I'm going to say that it is Baldwin, Jim Parsons from "The Big Bang Theory" and Carell as the favorites. Speaking of Morrisson, was he really a better actor this year than Joel McHale? I don't think so. Finally, what is with the Emmy committee's love for Tony Shaloub? I just don't get it, just like why David Simon's shows barely get nominations.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Bryan Cranston as Walter White in "Breaking Bad"
Like Baldwin, I really don't see how there is anything that could stop Cranston from winning his third Emmy in a row. Once again, he performed the role of White perfectly (after all, he did make you root for a drug lord). By the way, have you noticed how people's perception on Cranston has taken a big 180 degree turn in less than three years? First, he was just a comedy actor that is okay, but will never be considered great. Now, he's one of the best actors on TV, and all because of his two Emmys. Not bad for someone who was once famous for being the dad on "Malcolm in the Middle."
Should Win: Hugh Laurie as Gregory House in "House"
The Steve Carell of the drama category. He, too, is WAY overdue for an Emmy.
Other Thoughts: So, is there anyone out of all the nominees with a great chance on beating Cranston? Only two come to mind, and that's the winner of this year Golden Globe, Michael C. Hall with his performance as Dexter in "Dexter" and Jon Hamm, who played the coolest character on TV, the advertising executive Don Draper in "Mad Men." Finally, on a completely random note, congrats to only newcomer Kyle Chandler on his nomination for his role on "Friday Night Lights" and Matthew Fox, at last, for his role on "Lost." It's nice to see some new blood in a category that hasn't had much of it recently.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win and Should Win: Toni Collete as Tara Gregson in "The United States of Tara"
So, for the third straight Emmy/Golden Globe in a row it will go down to either Collete or Tina Fey for her role as Liz Lemon in "30 Rock." And though Fey did a great job delivering her dialogue and one-liners, I don't think she can be able to pull off playing someone with DID and multiple personalities as Collete did (though I do think it can happen the other way around). That, and the fact that she's won an Emmy and Golden Globe in a twelve month span, is why I'm picking Collete.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win and Should Win: Glenn Close as Patty Hewes in "Damages"
I don't have much to say on this except for how weak and familiar it is. Once again, the usual suspects like Close, Mariska Hartigay and Kyra Sedgwick get in easily with only Connie Britton serving as the only big challenger in the field. And in such a weak field like this one, you gotta go with the two time defending champion in this situation, right?
Other Thought: The day after "Mad Men" wrapped up season three, I predicted a best actress nominee for January Jones. Now, eight months later, I'm wondering if she indeed did deserve the nomination. Yes, she played Betty Draper well. But was it really her acting, or more of the writing by Weiner? After all, her hosting stint on "SNL" was really bad. Still, it was a weak field and I guess she deserved it.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy on "Modern Family"
Out of all the great acting done on "Modern Family," I think that Burrell's performance was the best. Also, since the creators probably submitted the pilot, it's more likely that he will win it since he had more of an impression and star role on the show than any of the other actors in the ballot.
Should Win: Eric Stonestreet as Mitchell Pritchett on "Modern Family"
While Burrell was great, no one did better delivering the one-liners and exaggerated moments on the show then Stonestreet did playing the unapologetically gay Mitchell, or Fizbo the clown for that matter, on the show.
Other Thoughts: Out of all the major acting categories on the Emmys, no other category was as jam packed as this one was, as well as the one with the most snubs. Here are the following who could've had a nomination:
-Ed O'Niell as Jay Pritchett in "Modern Family"
-Nick Offerman as Ron Swanson in "Parks and Recreations"
-Danny Pudi as Abed Nadir in "Community"
- Chris Pratt as Andy Dwyer in "Parks and Recreations"
-Charlie Day as Charlie Kelly in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia"
-Rainn Wilson as Dwight Shrute in "The Office"
- Jack McBrayer as Kenneth the Page in "30 Rock"
See? Pretty packed, right? Well, out of all of those snubs, I'm gonna go with Nick Offerman as the one who was most snubbed. Not only did he have the coolest mustache out of anyone on television, he also delivered his lines with great enthusiasm and had a big presence in every scene. Sure it was the writers who wrote the lines that Ron "F*****" Swanson the greatest work hating, food loving, wood crafting master head of a parks and recreations department that he is, but it was Offerman that brought him to life. Truly the MVP of the show last season if I do say so myself. And I would've nominated him instead of Jon Cryer (still don't get why he won an Emmy last year).
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Aaron Paul as Jessee Pinkman in "Breaking Bad"
What does it take for Paul to finally earn his Emmy? He acted his heart out last season, only to lose to Michael Emerson. This season, not only was he great once again, but he also stepped into a league of his own portraying Jessee with a moving mix of fear, pity and charm. Last year's snub was an embarrassment, but if he does lose again this year, it will be a crime.
Other Thoughts:
a. If we were to just have an acting category on best delivery of one-liners, it would be John Slattery. That guy sure could say one-liners pretty well.
b. I still can't rule out Emerson. After all, he did win last year.
c. Another big snub from this year's nominees would be John Noble for his role as Dr. Walter Bishop on "Fringe," the best actor overall on the show. Just watch his performance on the "White Tullips" episode and tell me that's not great acting! Personally, it should have been him on the ballot, and not Andre Braughter.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will and Should Win: Jane Lynch as Sue Slyvester in "Glee"
I finally got a chance to see "Glee" back in April. Overall, it wasn't really that enjoyable to me or something of my taste, but one thing stuck out above all else: Jane Lynch. Without her performance of Sylvester, it would have been unwatchable for me. So there's that. She's also funny, very talented and won a Golden Globe for her work on the show (and that was for best supporting actress in a TV series, mini-series or movie, not just comedy). How is she NOT your favorite to win? Better yet, is there really anyone here that can actually COMPETE with Lynch for the award?
I finally got a chance to see "Glee" back in April. Overall, it wasn't really that enjoyable to me or something of my taste, but one thing stuck out above all else: Jane Lynch. Without her performance of Sylvester, it would have been unwatchable for me. So there's that. She's also funny, very talented and won a Golden Globe for her work on the show (and that was for best supporting actress in a TV series, mini-series or movie, not just comedy). How is she NOT your favorite to win? Better yet, is there really anyone here that can actually COMPETE with Lynch for the award?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart in "The Good Wife"
This category was tough to me because, well...I never watched "Damages"...or "The Good Wife"...or "Burn Notice" in my entire life, okay? But, looking at past Emmy nominations, Baranski has been nominated multiple times and even won one back in 1995. Basically, the Academy loves her. And for that, I like her chances.
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olsen in "Mad Men"
She and Hendricks are the only actresses I've watched this past year, and Moss has done a much better job in the show's third season. She could have also been nominated for best leading actress if the show's producers wanted to. However, she was nominated for best supporting actress in order to get January Jones a nomination. For some reason, I find that to be an important fact.
OUTSTANDING GUESS ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
(note: this will probably be my only prediction on the best guess actors/actresses categories. Stay tuned to see if this prophecy does, indeed, come true.)
Will and Should Win: John Lithgow as the "Trinity Killer" in "Dexter"
Despite only having a one season appearance on the show, Lithgow still managed to captive fans of "Dexter" and critics with his great performance on the show. So good was Lithgow, in fact, that he beat all of TV's other top supporting actors this past January when he won the Golden Globe for his role. So, to me, even the possibility of him not winning this Emmy is crazy.
OUTSTANDING MINISERIES
Will and Should Win: "The Pacific" Look, there's only one other competitor in this category and, even though I didn't watch it, I'm pretty sure it doesn't even come close to how awesome "The Pacific" was. Also, why is there still a best miniseries category when only two have been nominated for the category the last two years? Can't you just eliminate it and mash it up with the best TV movie nominees? This, for some reason, is one of my many things I don't like about the Emmys, along with the whole nomination process I just talked about before.
Will and Should Win: "The Pacific" Look, there's only one other competitor in this category and, even though I didn't watch it, I'm pretty sure it doesn't even come close to how awesome "The Pacific" was. Also, why is there still a best miniseries category when only two have been nominated for the category the last two years? Can't you just eliminate it and mash it up with the best TV movie nominees? This, for some reason, is one of my many things I don't like about the Emmys, along with the whole nomination process I just talked about before.
And that does it for Part 1. Part 2 of my Emmy predictions to come tomorrow. In the meantime, here's my first "End of the Week" back from vacation:
END OF THE WEEK:
Stories of the Week:
-The Actual Story of the Week: BP Says Oil Has Stopped Spilling Completly Since Cap Was Put
I don't care if this is just a temporary cap. For the first time since 86 days, oil has stopped spilling from the Gulf of Mexico! It's almost over!
- The Tiger Woods Saga of '09 Memorial Story of the Week: Mel Gibson's Angry Phone Calls to Girlfriend Oksana Grigorieva Is Released
But he can't be a bad person and a racist! He's good friends with Whoopi Goldberg, isn't he?
Video of the Week: "Old Spice Guy Says Goodbye"
He will be leaving to join forces with Dos Equis's Most Interesting Man in the World and Chuck Norris to form the greatest Holy Trinity since, well, the Holy Trinity!
Person of the Week: The Spanish Soccer Team
for winning the World Cup...duuuh! They did by beating the Netherlands 1-0 (their sixth 1-0 game in the tournament, by the way!) thanks to some great defense, a couple of blown chances by Arjen Robben and (most importantly) Andres Iniesta goal in the 116th minute, the latest game winning goal in World Cup history. This marks the first time La Roja wins a World Cup title after years of under-achievement. They also became the first team to win the World Cup after losing their first game of the tournament and the first European team to win a WC title outside of Europe. And from what I can tell, they're still partying down there. VIVA LA ESPANA! Viva La...Espana.
-Runner-Up: Diego Forlan. Before the World Cup, only die-hard soccer fans knew him from his playing time at Club Atletico de Madrid. Now, after a terrific World Cup performance that earned him the Golden Ball, he's a worldwide star and easily Uruguay's most popular person. And all he needed was five goals to get that!
And...that's the way it is! As I mentioned, part two of my Emmy predictions to come tomorrow. Now, enjoy the little bit of weekend time you have left my friends. The workweek starts tomorrow, don't ya know!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
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If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you want to suggest anything to mj15 for his next blog entry (tips, perhaps?), e-mail him at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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