2010 NFL Predictions: The NFL is Back! (cheers) And So Are the Picks! (silence)

The NFL is back! I repeat: the NFL is back! Oh, if I could only scream this into the entire world right now! The best twenty two weeks of the sports calendar is back and better than ever!
First of all, I would like to thank the following moments in sports and entertainment for making the days between Super Bowl XLIV and now not as much of a drag most of the time, in no particular order:

1. The Winter Olympics
2. The MLB season, specifically the part when the White Sox started going on that crazy winning streak in June where they pretty much won every game to get into first place and hold it for a few weeks.
3. "The Pacfic" and "Treme", two great HBO shows that ran back to back in the spring.
4. "Rubicon" and "Louie," two of my favorite new shows from the summer
5. The World Cup
6. The three week stay during the summer in my family's motherland (southern Poland), especially the two weddings I went to over there. 'Cause there ain't no wedding like a Polish wedding 'cause the Polish wedding don't stop!
7. "Mad Men"- season four
8. "Breaking Bad"- season three
9. "Toy Story 3" and "Inception," both of which were outstanding
10. The Blackhawks road to the Stanley Cup, which was awesome.
11. The 2010 NBA free agency period, particularly the "Will Lebron James Sign With the Bulls?" storyline. He picked Miami instead but did so in such a terrible way that I wrote my thoughts about it a few days later.
12. The Bulls push to the playoffs at the end of the season. Sure, they were gonna lose to Cleveland in the 1st round(and they did in five games), but at least it made me watch the final games of the NBA regular season, something I hardly do.
13. All of the shows from my TV top ten that I didn't mention already
14. The Emmys and the Oscars
15. The golf majors and Tiger's return after you-know-what
16. The NCAA Tournament with their high amount of upsets and instant classics this year
17. The NBA and NHL Playoffs

Sure, there were times when I really wanted the NFL back on my TV screen like those Sunday afternoons when there was nothing on except for C-rated PGA tour and some movies that I don't like or when I was getting tired about hearing of Lebron James talked about on ESPN, but these did help in providing good distractions. But for me, there's just nothing quite like spending Sunday afternoons on the TV screen watching NFL Redzone on one channel and Jay Cutler throwing another interception inside the 20 yard line on the other one. Now, let's get to the reason we're all here: the picks.
For those of you who are new to the site, this is the first of my weekly NFL picks columns which you will see from now until Super Bowl XLV. Each Wednesday or Friday (this depends on whether the first game of the week is either on a Thursday or a Sunday) I will be posting a column in which I predict who will win every NFL game that will be played that week and giving you my reasons why. I will also give you the spread of the games, even though I will not pick against it like people such as Hank Goldberg do. Last year, I decided on using the picks made by my dad, whom I call mj50 on this site, in some kind of experiment to see whether someone like him with less knowledge of football then me can do a better job in picking games than me, kind of like how Bill Simmons's wife did better than him that one year.
Well, it didn't turn out that way. I went 169-95 while mj50 went 162-105. Close, but no cigar. So the experiment didn't work, but you know what? I decided to have his picks back for this year as well. I figure that this will be some kind of tradition from now on. So let's get to it. The following are the predictions of the week 1 NFL games from my father and I. Since this is week 1, expect to see a lot of thought on how I think some teams will play throughout the season, and not just this game. I even have my Super Bowl picks as you scroll down. Also, just like last year, all game times are based on the central time zone.

Let's begin:

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints (-5): Thursday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans

What a match to begin the year, with the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints playing the first game of their title defense at home against the team they beat in an overtime classic at home, the Minnesota Vikings who for the second year in a row have have future Hall of Famer Brett Favre under center after another frustrating "will he play or won't he play?" summer. I've decided to pick New Orleans for one big reason, and that is this: when the whole traditional of having the Super Bowl champ of the previous year kicking off the season by playing a Thursday night game at home began in 2004 when the Patriots played against the Colts the season after winning Super Bowl XXXVIII, the home team/defending champion have won every time. Some did it in a close game (like the Patriots in 2004 beating the Colts 27-24 or the Steelers winning in overtime over the Titans last year), some did it in a blowout (like the Colts in 2007 beating the Saints 41-10) and the rest did it by beating them in a 9-11 point margin. But the point is they all won, and with the Saints playing in that great crowd in the Superdome right after they finish celebrating the hanging of the Super Bowl XLIV champions banner, I don't have any doubts that this "streak" will end this year.

Sure, the game these two played against each other in the NFC championship game last season was close and it took the Saints getting a Brett Favre interception in the final minutes of the 4th quarter, a coin flip in their favor and an offensive drive that result in Garrett Hartley scoring a 40 yard field goal to win it. But the Vikings this year are without #1 receiver Sidney Rice for the next eight weeks, the defense should have trouble stopping Brees (as most teams have since he joined New Orleans) and the injuries of Brett Favre has should be a factor much like it was during that NFC championship game. In other words, I expect the city of New Orleans to feel pretty good after the game.
mj50's pick: New Orleans

Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Miami
Yes, I know this may sound crazy on paper, as the Dolphins are supposed to challenge the Patriots and the Jets for the AFC East and made some good acquisitions in the offseason by getting both Karlos Dansby as their middle linebacker and Brandon Marshall as their #1 receiver, something Miami hasn't really had in years. Plus, Miami has one of the top running back tandems with Ricky Williams coming off a 1,000 yard season despite not doing so since '03 and Ronnie Brown coming back and Buffalo was ranked 26th in rushing defense last year. But, as we all know, week 1 of the NFL season tends to be one of the most unpredictable weeks of the year, with more upsets than any other time of the year, and I have a strong feeling that Buffalo could be one of those teams that could make an upset. They have also done well in opening games since 2003, either winning them in big margins or keeping it close (they have yet to lose an opening day game by more than 3 points in this timeframe). I'm not saying that Buffalo will finish with the better record or that Buffalo will be really good this year, but for now I think that they will start of the season right at home.
mj50's pick: Buffalo

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Oh, Ben Roethlisberger! You just had to get yourself involved in another rape accusations over the offseason, causing Commisioner Goodell to suspend you for four games this year for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Will you ever learn to stop being this dumb? Anyways, I do think that because of the Roethlisberger suspension, Atlanta will win this football game. Matt Ryan should be off of his sophmore slump, and you should start seeing that in this game. Plus, I have them as one of the team to challenge the Saints for the NFC south this year, so there's that. Now, let's talk about Peter King.
Ever since King picked the Steelers as his Super Bowl pick, people have been piling on him for doing so. And even though he might deserve it and that this pick was as silly as when he picked the Bears to win the NFC last year, at least he's doing something that not many people are, and that's not going with the flock of sheep and choosing the same four or five teams that the rest of the country (that includes me as you will see later on) have predicted. Just look at the picks by the so called NFL "experts" over at ESPN.com. Almost all of them have the exact same four or five teams to win it (the Colts, the Ravens, the Packers, the Cowboys) with a bit of homerisms in their too. The fact that King didn't go along with them is something that should at least be credit as brazen and shouldn't be that much destroyed as one might assume. I still hate his columns, though.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
As I mentioned last week, this is the least excitement and hope that I've had for this Bears team since the 2004 season when Lovie Smith was in his first year and their best QB that season was Chad Hutchinson. Sure, they now have the quarterback (Cutler) and the additions of Julius Peppers and Chester Taylor were good, but they still didn't do anything to fix their need at their two weakest positions: offensive line and receiving. Also, they looked terrible in the preseason, they have a tough schedule this year and their secondary appears to have their third terrible year in a row set. After all, if you can make the Derek Anderson to Stephen Williams in week 3 of the preseason look like Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison, then how are they going to stop the great QBs they will be playing against in the regular season like Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Eli Manning?

However, despite all of that just written I still think they are going to win this game against the Lions. Chicago averaged 42.5 points last year against Detroit and Cutler threw for 6 TDs against them last year including a 4 TD performance in week 17. Besides, it's the Lions that we're talking about! Sure, Detroit has a promising future with that young and talented core of young guys lead by Matthew Stafford at QB, Calvin Johnson at WR, Jahvid Best at RB and Ndamukong Suh at DL and with the addition of Kyle Vanden Bosch in the offseason, but I don't think they're ready to make an impact. At least in this season.
mj50's pick: Chicago

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
This game should be pretty close only because I think that the Patriots defense could very well be killed by Cedric Benson and the rest of the Bengals offense. But, if there's one thing that the Patriots can do, it's win their opening game of the season, not having lost in week 1 since 2004 and only losing once since 2002. Another thing that New England have done well during the Belichick/Brady era? Beating the Bengals, which they done everytime Brady was the starting QB during these two meetings. So, for those two reasons and the fact that they're playing in Foxborough, I'm going to go with the Pats.
mj50's pick: New England

Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
Look, both teams look terrible heading into the season. The Bucs have one of the worst coaches and QB situations in the NFL and finished 3-13 last year. The Browns are just too short on talent, have to rely on the new king of Cleveland sports Jake Delholmme who was atrocious in his final season last year with the Panthers and finished 5-11 last year. With that being said, I'm just going to go with the Bucs because of the homefield advantage. Otherwise, I really have no idea. Picking between these two teams is like decided whether "The Happening" or "All About Steve" were the better of the two movies.
mj50's pick: Cleveland

Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs. Houston Texans: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Another year, another NFL season in which people have Houston to be a playoff darkhorse. Just like last year and the last two or three years prior to the season, the Texans come into the season with the best WR in the game (Andre Johnson), a QB who is right on the edge of being part of the league's elite (Matt Schaub), running backs that people are talking about (last year it was Steve Slaton, this year it's Arian Foster) and a young and talent defense (led this year by Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryan and, in a few games, '09 Defensive ROY Brian Cushing). Yet, for the past couple of years the Texans have found to not live up to the hype. Basically, they have been like the Cincinnati Reds of the NFL for the past two years. So, will this be the year they finally breakout and actually play in the franchise's first playoff game. They certainly have the tools to do it, but for all we know they could just finish 9-7 this year and without a playoff berth.

Now, ass for this game between these Texans and the defending AFC champion Colts. Look, as long as Indy has Peyton Manning they will always be the better team than Houston. But the Texans have to beat the Colts eventually. The Texans have played a lot of close games with Indy in the last few years, and there's no way that Peyton Manning will go his entire career beating the Texans twice every year. Besides, the Indy game for Houston has now become their regular season Super Bowl. I expect this team to come to the game at Reliant Stadium extra prepared, extra focused and extra serious than normally and then FINALLY finding a way to finish a game against the Colts with more points.
mj50's pick: Houston

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
You know, with all the talk this offseason about the Cowboys and the Super Bowl type roster they have and the Redskins with the Donovan McNabb acquistition, new coach Mike Shanahan and whatever the heck Haynesworth did, not many people are talking a lot about the Giants. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but either way I expect them to challenge for that NFC East crown this year. They have a fully healthy Eli Manning back, who had to play through the second half of the season with what must have been a painfully distracting foot injury, a Giants defense and wide receiving corps that have the potential to have a sneaky good season, and the additions of Keith Bullock and Antrel Rolle in the offseason were really good in terms of filling some holes in the defense.
The Panthers, on the other hand, don't look that good to me heading into the season. Sure they have some things going for them (Steve Smith, the Williams-Stewart running back tandem, etc.) but I don't think they match up well in the NFC South against the Saints and the Falcons and I believe that the loss of Julius Peppers in the offseason will hurt them defensively. I say all these things because I think that when these two teams will face each other Sunday afternoon, these things will matter.
mj50's pick: New York

Speaking of the divisions in the NFL, here are my predictions on what will happen this upcoming season, including the playoffs. I'm not going to give my reasons why, though. I just think that since this is a predictions column, I might as well give my predictions on the entire season:

AFC South
1. Indianapolis 12-4
2. Tennessee 9-7
3. Houston 9-7
4. Jacksonville 7-9

AFC North
1. Baltimore 11-5
2. Cincinnati 10-6
3. Pittsburgh 8-8
4. Cleveland 5-11

AFC East
1. Miami 11-5
2. New England 10-6
3. New York Jets 8-8
4. Buffalo 5-11

AFC West
1. San Diego 12-4
2. Denver 9-7
3. Oakland 7-9
4. Kansas City 3-13

NFC South
1. Atlanta 11-5
2. New Orleans 10-6
3. Carolina 7-9
4. Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC North
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Minnesota 9-7
3. Chicago 6-10
4. Detroit 5-11

NFC East
1. New York Giants 11-5
2. Dallas 10-6
3. Philadelphia 9-7
4. Washington 6-10

NFC West
1. San Fransisco 9-7
2. Seattle 8-8
3. Arizona 5-11
4. St. Louis 4-12

Wild Card
Miami over Cincinnati
Baltimore over New England
Dallas over San Fransisco
New Orleans over New York Giants

Divisional Playoffs
Indianapolis over Baltimore
San Diego over Miami
Green Bay over New Orleans
Dallas over Atlanta

Conference Championships
Indianapolis over San Diego
Green Bay over Dallas

Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis over Green Bay 33-21

HALFTIME! This is the new part of the column that I have added this season. Once I am halfway through predicting each week's games this year, I'm going to post a great video of a stand-up comedy performance. This week, I'm kicking things off with my favorite ten minutes of "Eddie Murphy: Delirious.," one of the best stand up specials I have ever watched. Enjoy.







Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
In the first game of the Tim Tebow back-up era in Denver, the team that blew a chance in the playoffs last season, the Broncos, take on the team with the least interested (unless they're winning) fanbase, the Jaguars. It's was a tough choice simply because I don't know a lot about the two teams to make a conclusions as to how they will play out this year (though I'm pretty sure they will both do good). I'm going with the Jags, however, simply because the Broncos outside of Champ Bailey have a worse defense then them, especially now that Elvis Dumervill is gone for the season (Jax finished 24th while the Broncos finished 27th) and they have been terrible since the second half of last season. Otherwise, it's a toss up for me.
mj50's pick: Denver

Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans (-6): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
Tennessee is coming off a season in which they went 8-2 in their last 10 games. They also have a running back who promised to follow up his 2,000 yard season with a 2,500 yard one (which would be fantastic for me as one of his thousands of fantasy owners this year), a QB who almost always finds himself leading a team to victory in Vince Young and Jeff Fisher, who is one of the league's top five coaches. Oakland, meanwhile is still Oakland. Sure they made some improvements over the offseason like the Campbell addition at QB which finally puts some stability in at the position, but at this point I won't believe that they are a good team until I see them continually win football games in a season. Plus, Tennessee is much better than the Raiders in a lot of ways, and for that and the reasons I just mentioned I'm going with Tennessee in this one.
mj50's pick: Tennessee

Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
Two different stories of two different teams heading into this season. On one hand, you have Green Bay, the trendy pick by many people to either win the NFC or the Super Bowl (including me) thanks to a packed offense led by possible MVP this year Aaron Rodgers and a defense that could be really good if they just improve their passing defense. On the other hand, you have the Eagles who still have Andy Reid as coach but are starting the Kevin Kolb era at QB now that they traded Donovan McNabb. In short, both teams have the possibility to have good and/or great seasons. As for this game, however, I like the Packers simply because they have the much better offense. It should be a good game, though.
mj50's pick: Green Bay

Arizona Cardinals (-4) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Arizona
If there are any doubters are there left in this world who still don't think that the QB isn't the most important position in football, just look at the Arizona Cardinals. After two straight trips to the playoffs including one in which they were leading Super Bowl XLIII with less than three minutes to go, they aren't even predicted to finish on top of the division. That is for one reason and one reason only: the retirement of Kurt Warner. Thanks to his departure and Derek Anderson replacing him at QB, the Cardinals look like they're going back to their pre-2008 days of failure. Sure, the losses of Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle might have been big factors too, but Warner was one of the league's five best QBs for the past two seasons and now that he's gone, that explosive offense that we saw in '08 and '09 should be gone for a while.
With that being said, I still think they're going to win this game. The Cardinals haven't lost to the Rams since September of 2006 and I think the Rams defense won't be able to stop Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells. How Sam Bradford will play in his first NFL game should be much more interesting to watch than the game itself.
mj50's pick: Arizona

San Fransisco 49ers (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Fransisco
Ah, the NFC West! A division so terrible that you can probably get into the playoffs with a 9-7 record! Anyways, I think that these will be the two teams that will challenge for that division crowd. I like San Fransisco just because they've been close to the division crown in years past, have top 10 RB Frank Gore and a nice and talented defense, and I like Seattle just because they were one of the most consistent teams in that divisions up until '08 and for that reason only. Arizona could be in that mix as the season goes along, but to me these will be the teams that will finish the season on top of the division. Now, as for this game, I think SanFran will do much better than Seattle. Seattle ranked 31st in rushing defense last year and that terrible news considering that they start off the year facing Frank Gore and the SanFran defense will prove to be very good against Matt Hasselback and that Seattle offense.
mj50's pick: Seattle

Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
It's a pretty good Sunday Night game to start the season off on paper, with Tony Romo and the Super Bowl favorites Dallas Cowboys taking on new Washington QB Donovan McNabb and the rest of the Redskins in a matchup between two hated divisional rivals, and in the end I do think it will be pretty close. But, in the end, I think that the result will be just like you would expect, with the favorited Cowboys coming out on top. Tony Romo is 10-4 lifetime in September and the last time the Redskins beat the Cowboys at home was in 2007, when Dallas already clinched the #1 spot in the NFC and were giving their starters a week off. Otherwise, Washington has yet to beat the Cowboys at home since then.
mj50's pick: Washington

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets (-2.5): Monday- 6:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
I know I mentioned this before, but I have loved this past season of "Hard Knocks" with the Jets. The swearing, the funny and unintentionally funny moments, etc. But as I was watching all of moments happening in training camp with Rex Ryan and company, I realized through their preseason game highlights that the Jets are not as good as many people thought they would be. Not only do their second and third stringers look unimpressive, but Mark Sanchez appears from the highlights of the preseason games that he will have some type of a sophmore slump this year. Meanwhile, Baltimore looks the exact opposite. The defense looks nice heading into the season as usual, Ray Rice is expected to have another good year fantasy wise, and the additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh (God, I hoped I spelled that right!) has just made their passing offense better than ever! I like the Ravens in this intriguing first Monday night matchup of the year.
mj50's pick: New York

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Monday- 9:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Dear ESPN,
How is it that a network as powerful as you can't seem to schedule a good second Monday Night Football game in week 1? Every year since you got the MNF rights, you always have had some nice and intriguing first game followed by some dud of a second game in which you know who's going to win for weeks prior. Can't you find some way to schedule two good teams to play in the 9:15 p.m. slot every week 1, like Colts/Chargers or NY Giants/San Fransisco? I don't know about you, but I will most likely tune out from watching football on your network once the Baltimore/NY Jets game ends just because the San Diego/Kansas City game should be a blowout.
mj50's pick: Kansas City

RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week:
Arizona over St. Louis
The Jacksonville State defeating Ole Miss Upset of the Week:
Buffalo over Miami
The "Parks and Recreations" vs. "Community" "I'm Not Sure" Pick:
Tampa Bay over Cleveland

And, that's it for this week's column. It's just good to know that after six months, the new NFL regular season will finally get underway tomorrow. I will be back with the week 2 picks next Friday due to the NFL starting on a Sunday that particular week. Otherwise, enjoy the games, wherever and however you do so.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15




Ifyou have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.