Well, it has finally come down to this. After hundreds of offseason transactions, 252 picks in the draft, 122 preseason games, 256 regular season games, hundreds of player injuries and in-season transactions, ten postseason games, countless hours and typed words regarding media analysis, news reports and speculation, and, (shivers) the Pro Bowl, the 2010 NFL season is now officially ending as it approaches its last game this Sunday afternoon. On one side, there's the Green Bay Packers, who, after starting the season off with an injury plagued lineup and an underachieving start have done what many pundits (including myself) suggested that they would do as early as late summer and make to the Big Game in Cowboys Stadiums (thanks in large part to the explosive passing game led by Aaron Rodgers, Dom Caper's 3-4 defense and by winning their last six games). On the other side, there's the Pittsburgh Steelers, who through the leadership of AP Defensive Player of the Year Troy Polamalu, its impeccable defense and a balanced offense have actually managed to get to the game despite starting the first quarter of the regular season without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger. Much like the Colts and the Saints match-up last year, its a game pitting against two high profile and talented teams that, though they do have some differences such as their style of play offensively, are very similar in many aspects of the game of football and should be the making of another Super Bowl classic for the record 110 million or so viewers expected to watch this game nationwide.
So, with that in mind, simply giving my prediction of this game followed by a quick paragraph or two analysis/breakdown/explanation like I have done for most of the matches played this season in this, my final predictions post of the 2010 NFL season, just simply does not cover it for a game with this magnitude and with this much high stakes involved. Besides, its the only game on this week and the only game on until (hopefully) late in the summertime, so I might as well give more of a crap then I usually have done this year. So instead, I'm going to spend much of this column by simply breaking down every aspect of the game Dr. Jack Ramsey style from the coaching to the running game to even the fans, followed by the big reveal of my pick (F.Y.I. I am 7-3 in Super Bowl picks for the past ten seasons) and a quick summary as to why I ended up making my choice based on everything that I have mentioned earlier.
So, for the final time this season, let us begin:
Super Bowl XLV:
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5) (at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas): Sunday- 5:29 p.m. (CST)
The breakdown:
Quarterbacks (Overall): Has to be Aaron Rodgers, right? I mean, don't get me wrong, I think that Ben Roethlisberger is one of the ten best quarterbacks in the league and one of the best playoff quarterbacks ever who has just improved his game with each passing season. But since taking over the Packers starting QB role after Brett Favre's 1st retirement in 2008, Rodgers has been one of the five best statistical quarterbacks in all of professional football every season since. In '08, his first full season in the league, he finished the year with 4,038 yards passing (4th), a 63.6 completion percentage (10th), 28 TD passes (4th) and a 93.8 QB rating (6th). In '09, he managed to somehow perform even better in every one of those statistical category throwing for 4,438 yards (still 4th), a 64.7 completion percentage (9th), 30 TD passes (4th) and a 103.8 QB rating (you guessed it, 4th), and ended his season with a brilliant performance against Arizona in his team's 51-45 wild card round loss by going 28 of 43 for 423 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. And now, in the 2010 season, despite suffering through two concussions, Rodgers still managed to put up magnificent stats with 3,922 yards passing (7th), a 65.1 completion percentage (T-5th), 28 TD passes (T-6th) and a 101.2 passer rating (3rd).
If you were counting at home, that's three consecutive seasons in which he has finished in the top ten in all of the four major QB categories mentioned (yards, TDs, completion %, passer rating). Add in the fact that he's just as mobile as Big Ben, that he is the leader of a team that made it to the Super Bowl despite ending the regular season with a 6th seed and 19 players on IR and that he has led the 2010 playoffs statistically in every big category imaginable and you have yourselves a gentlemen that has earned himself a spot in the ever-changing debate for "Best QB in the NFL Right Now," right up there now with Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Phillip Rivers. Overall, its amazing how much this man has evolved from the unsettling/questionable Aaron Rodgers of the 2008 preseason when he had all the pressure of playing well following the move of the Green Bay front office choosing him over Favre when the ol'gunslinger decided to come back after retirement #1 to the one that we see right now.
(By the way, how foolish must the 49ers front office feel right now choosing Alex Smith as their #1 overall pick in 2005 instead of Aaron Rodgers, who not only was the better prospect that Rodgers but was also a local boy who played football in nearby Cal? With Rodgers doing wonders in Green Bay and Smith continuing to underperform in San Fran, I think its safe to say that this pick ranks among one of the worst front office decisions in NFL draft history.)
Edge: Green Bay
Quarterback (Crunch Time Situation): Now, when you're discussing the topic of quarterback that you would most like to have in the final moments of the game, then the advantage shifts slightly. Now, I'm sure that I have already mentioned this many times, but I believe that it bears repeating: if my football team was down by 4 points with two minutes to go, and I only had to score a touchdown to score, there is no quarterback that I would like to have than Ben Roethlisberger (with Tom Brady being second and, yes I am serious, Eli Manning as my third choice). After all, we have seen time and time again, especially in the last three seasons or so, that Roethlisberger just seems to step up when the game counts the most better and more efficiently than any other QB in the league. This was shown in Super Bowl XLIII when, after the Cardinals scored the go-ahead touchdown to take the 23-20 lead with less than two minutes to go, #7 led Pittsburgh to the game winning drive in the final moments of regulation, capped off by his now famous touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes. This was also shown as latest as three weeks ago in the AFC divisional playoff game against Baltimore when, with the game tied at 24 apiece late in the 4th quarter, Big Ben threw a 58 yard completion to Antonio Brown on 3rd and 19 in a drive that later resulted in a game winning TD run by Rashad Mendenhall. Heck, we saw this during the last time that these two teams played in November of '09 when, on the final play of the game with his team down by 6 points, Roethlisberger threw a miraculous 19 yard TD pass to Mike Wallace to win the game for Pittsburgh. The guy is like his generation's John Elway at this point.
Rodgers, on the other hand, is the complete opposite. I can't recall a game in which he has ever led Green Bay to a game winning score late in the 4th quarter. In fact, it seems that Green Bay has mostly been on the opposite end of the last minute victories for much of this season. In 2008, the Packers had leads late in the 4th quarter 11 times but lost those leads (and eventually the game) eight times (including four consecutive weeks from their week 13 game versus Carolina to their week 16 game in Chicago). There were also several instances of it happening in 2009 and 2010 as well. Granted, much of that is not Rodgers' fault, but you can't help but wonder how Green Bay's fortunes would have been different if Roethlisberger was their quarterback.
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Running Backs: Both teams do not own the best running backs corps in the world. However, Green Bay finished the season 24th in rushing offense and are obviously missing Ryan Grant since he was unfortunately placed on injured reserved after only one regular season game. John Kune may be a fan favorite, but the only thing he does well is rush for one yard gains when the team needs it most. Brandon Jackson? Hasn't had a decent game since week 9 against Dallas when he ran for 42 yards on 13 attempts and a touchdown (and he supposedly the #1 running back). Their best running back at the moment is James Starks, who has 263 yards this postseason and should finish it with the best rushing total overall and has been efficient since coming back to the roster in week 13.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has Rashad Mendenhall, the third year well-built power runner from Illinois who has finished in the top ten of the league this season in total yards, rushing TDs and attempts per game. He was also one of the main factors for Pittsburgh starting the season 3-1 despite playing with Roethlisberger at QB and, together with Roethlisberger's passing, has created a terrific balance in Pittsburgh's offense that had not been seen when the team won the Super Bowl two seasons ago. So its without question that I'm giving Pittsburgh the edge in running the football.
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Offensive Line: Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey is now officially ruled out for the game after two weeks of speculation and the "will he, won't he" drama that reminded many of Dwight Freeney's injury situation last year. This means that second year undrafted free agent Doug Legursky will start the game in a Pittsburgh lineup that has already had plenty of issues in terms of the line position. Out of their projected starting five in the beginning of the season, only guard Chris Kemoeatu is the remaining man left playing. The other four (Pouncey, Willie Colon, Max Starks and Trai Essex) have either been placed on injured reserve or are too hurt to play. The silver lining to all this is that the team has managed to survive pretty well despite all of these injuries. The bad news is that, in a game where one little factor can make a huge difference in this game, you can't help but feel that Green Bay's chances of winning might have improved because of this.
EDGE: Green Bay
Receiving Corps: Both teams come into this game with a great slate of wideouts. The Steelers have Hines Ward, one of the best and most reliable receivers in the game that you will find, the speedy Mike Wallace who always seems to be involved in one 40 yard TD after another, the experienced Heath Miller and more. However, I still find the Green Bay wide receiving corp. to be slightly better. Greg Jennings is an explosive receiver that can make the big plays if you ask him. Donald Driver brings the experience and the soft hands that are some of the best in the game. Jordy Nelson is always reliable when your team needs a short TD pass, and James Jones makes for a nice wild card for Green Bay. Had JerMichael Finley, one of the best tight ends in the game, remained healthy and ruled eligible to play in Sunday's matchup, Green Bay's edge in this category would have been much greater. Just another reason why I think that Aaron Rodgers will head into this game with a slight edge over Ben Roethlisberger.
EDGE: Green Bay
3-4 Defense: This one is too close to call as both teams have really outstanding defenses. For starters, both teams have great defensive coordinators, some of the best in the game, with Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh and Dom Capers in Green Bay. Second, both teams were ranked in the top five in total defenses at the end of the season. Heck, the top two contenders for this year's AP Defensive Player of the Year Award? Troy Polamalu (who was the eventual winner) and Clay Matthews (the runner-up).
The difference lies in the area of which they are best in. For Green Bay, its defending the pass with the team giving up on average only 194 yards per game passing (5th in the league) and led by a decent secondary of '09 Defensive MVP Charles Woodson, still one of the top corners in the league, and Tramond Williams, who has been terrific this postseason with 4 INTs in three playoff games. Outside of Polamalu, Pittsburgh simply can not match up to Green Bay in that area of defense. Where Pittsburgh can match up and exceed Green Bay in, however, is stopping the run. Led by Pro Bowler/'08 Defensive MVP James Harrison at linebacker and Casey Hampton at the line, Pittsburgh led the lead in rushing defense both in the regular season (giving up an average of only 62 yards per game) and in the postseason (52.5). In other words, these are two teams with wonderful defenses, so I have no choice but to give neither team the advantage.
EDGE: TIE
Kickers: It's very possible that the final moments of the Super Bowl could go down to a last second field goal attempt, so having the right kicker to do the job key. So the question remains: which of the two starting kickers for this game (Mason Crosby for Green Bay, Shaun Siusham for Pittsburgh) is the better of the two? Well, Crosby was 22 of 28 this season in field goals and a perfect 46 of 46 in extra points. Siusham, meanwhile is 14 of 15 from field goals (remember, he came to Pittsburgh only after the team finally let go of Jeff Reed) and 19 of 19 in extra point attempts. So not only has Siusham been more accurate than Crosby, but he also earns additional bonus points for doing it most of the time in the worst football field of the entire NFL: Heinz Field. I don't think there needs to be any further explanation.
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Head Coach: This one isn't even close. I mean, sure, Mike McCarthy is okay, but he reminds me too much of Andy Reid at this point (in a bad, poor clock management kind of way). Tomlin, meanwhile, in only four seasons as Steelers head coach, has led the team to three playoff appearances and two Super Bowl appearances (the first to do so under the age of forty). Besides, the guy plays "In the Air Tonight" before every game to motivate his team. How can you possibly top that?
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Exceeding Expectations: During the start of the preseason and the final weeks before the Vikings and the Saints met on Opening Night, it seemed that every major website and newspaper/magazine publication covering the NFL had the Packers either winning the Super Bowl, making it to the Super Bowl or at least be one of the main contenders for the NFC Championship. In other words, the fact that they're here at this point, despite their slow start early in the season, is not that big of a surprise. The Steelers, meanwhile, had a good team but headed into a preseason knowing that their starting QB will not play either their first four or six games. The fact that they went 3-1 without him is a surprise to everyone but, say, Peter King of Sports Illustrated whom many mocked for picking this team to make it to the Super Bowl in the magazine's NFL preview edition.
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Homefield Advantage: There is no question that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have more fans in Cowboys Stadium on Sunday night despite the fact that they're considered "the road team" in this matchup. The Steelers have one of the largest fanbase, if not the largest, in the NFL with millions from western Pennsylvania to the Upper Midwest to the lower Southwest to the bandwagoners whose simple minds only feel like rooting for the team that has been more successful in the last few years than any other (see: Patriots fans and Colts fans in particular). Don't get we wrong, the folks from Wisconsin and Packers fans alike will come out and represent (that is, if most of them survived this week's blizzard and have finally left the Brett Favre bandwagon that made them Vikings fans for the past two seasons), just not as much as the fanbase that has outnumbered the other team's fanbases in Super Bowl XL and XLIII respectively.
EDGE: Pittsburgh
Better Memorabilia: For Steelers fans, its the Terrible Towel, the proud symbol of the franchise since the team's dynasty of the 1970s and one item that thousands of them have brought to every Pittsburgh game, home or away, ever since. For Packers fans, its the Cheesehead, the popular headgear invented in 1987 that today is a symbol of the team's small town Wisconsin roots and one of the few things that seems to be engraved in the minds of everyone who thinks of the Green Bay Packers along with Vince Lombardi, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and fat people. But which one is better? Personally, I would go with the Terrible Towel. Its much more menacing for opposing players to see on the field than headgear that looks like a large chunk of American cheddar. Plus, its much more accessible to carry around with you, and for a lazy person like me, that's a pretty big deal.
SLIGHT EDGE: Pittsburgh
Better case for "America's Team": Look around the Internet this week and you will see plenty of articles discussing whether the Steelers, the Packers or the Cowboys deserve to be called the irrelevant/made up title of "America's Team," the single most important title to claim in all of the NFL, or so its been made out to be. Supporters of the Steelers will argue that its the team's history (six Super Bowl titles, most all-time, 7 AFC Championship titles, Joe Greene, Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, most Hall of Fame inductees since 1970, etc.), its humongous fanbase (supposedly the biggest in the league, Troy Polamalu's jersey as the largest selling in 2010, etc.) and its representation of hard-working, industry building, blue collar America (like the one that you see in movies like "The Deer Hunter"). Supporters of the Packers would argue its small town roots, ownership by its residents, rabid fanbase, history that is more rich and older than Pittsburgh (Lombardi, "Titletown" era of the '60s, Don Hudson, Curly Lambeau, Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Jim Taylor, Ray Nitschke, Forest Gregg, Brett Favre, 2nd most Hall of Famers in the NFL, etc.) and that 53 of its city's residents are Packers fans (No, really. Just ask Rick "Complete Drivel" Reilly). Both cases are okay in their own right, but the the case for Pittsburgh is more compelling. After all, the team with the much bigger fanbase logically has to be given this completely nonsensical title, right?
SLIGHT EDGE: Pittsburgh (now can this debate end?)
Rooting Interest: Even though I was born in a city that has required me to hate against anything Green Bay, I've actually liked the Packers (at least, more than some of the team's other rivals). Maybe its because they're just some small town in Wisconsin, maybe its because they're Chicago's closest neighbors in the NFL map, maybe its because I'm friends with a few Packers fans that aren't really insufferable. Either way, I really can't explain. In fact, it's mostly been the Vikings whom I've hated most in my years as a football fan. Besides, it's hard not to root for a guy like Aaron Rodgers. The guy's talented in what he does, has yet to reach Tim Tebow level of"compliment him on everything he does" gushing, and is proving his critics who wanted the Packers to keep Favre in '08 and '09 wrong. Besides, him winning the Super Bowl could prove to a nice balance in a year that has featured some infamous moments like "The Decision," Brett Favre's third Summer of Indecision, and Lawrence Taylor's no-no (among other things). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has one of the most hated players in football (Roethliberger) and a fanbase that is one of the most annoying and cockiest in all of professional sports. That's all you need to know about who I think deserves this edge.
EDGE: Green Bay
And now, the moment that you have all been waiting for...
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh (33), Green Bay (27)
MVP: Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers will play a really good game and the Packers have always kept games close, at least in their losses. However, there are three separate factors that made me side with Pittsburgh. For starters, the Steelers have the more balanced team out of the two heading into this game. Second, its all about experience. Top players in Pittsburgh like James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Hines Ward and James Harrison have been in this big of a stage before and thus know what it takes for them to win this football game. Green Bay, meanwhile, is completely inexperienced, and I'm a bit worried about that. Finally, because this is a dome game pitting two teams that are so even and have pretty much the same philosophy heading into this game, I feel that it should be a close high scoring game throughout that will be decided in the final moments of the fourth quarter (Green Bay has also never trailed by more than seven points this season, which should count for something). This is where the discussion of better QB in crunch time situations especially comes into play, and (as mentioned earlier) I think that Ben Roethlisberger will have the edge in this one to grind out a last minute victory for Pittsburgh. In other words, expect to see title number seven given to the Rooney family when all is said and done Sunday night.
mj50's pick: Green Bay (17), Pittsburgh (14)
MVP: Greg Jennings
Playoff Records:
mj15: 5-5 (not including my correct Pro Bowl prediction from last week)
mj50: 3-7
Overall Records:
mj15: 174-108
mj50: 153-129
- Come on, Pro Football Hall of Fame voters! Do the right thing and finally induct Richard Dent into this year's class! Four Pro Bowl selections, two first-team All Pros, Super Bowl XX MVP, 137.5 sacks...what more could you ask for? Now that I have my home team bias out of the way, here is the list of individuals that I feel will actually receive memberships into the 2011 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class:
1. Marshall Faulk
2. Deion Sanders
3. Cris Carter
4. Richard Dent
5. Ed Sabol
6. Chris Hanburger
7. Les Richter
(UPDATE 02/05: Way to go, Pro Football Hall of Fame voters!)
- NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith makes a hell of a case for supporting his side during the CBA negotiations. Not only is he arguing that his side is okay with this current deal and that it's the owners who want change, but he is also making the case that it will be the owners, not the NFLPA, that will be the main cause of the lockout. I just wonder which side the majority of the American public, if there will be one, will go with when (not if) the current CBA deal expires March 6th and the worst possible scenario for NFL fans everywhere (no football in the fall of 2011) slowly turns into reality.
-I don't understand the need for sportswriters (*cough cough PETER KING cough BILL SIMMONS cough LES CARPENTER cough cough*) to bitch about the location and weather of the Super Bowl. Oh, why oh why did my employers take me to this piece of dump that doesn't have 70 degree temperature and bright sunshine! THE SUPER BOWL WAS MEANT TO BE PLAYED IN CITIES WHERE I CAN GO OUTSIDE AND SHOOT A ROUND OF GOLF, GOD DAMMIT! Oh, won't someone please think of the CEO of McDonalds, who won't enjoy his $20,000 seats in perfect weather! You're job is to cover the biggest event in all of American sports for free with all expenses paid! Stop spending precious paragraphs on how the weather isn't for your liking! And if you still have problems with the city or weather, I would be glad if you gave your reporting duties to me instead. At least I would treat it with the honor and responsibility that is required of it.
-Dear Joe Buck,
You have heard for the last three years from millions of people about how your announcing was the worst part of watching Super Bowl XLII. Please take this into account and use it in order to improve your broadcasting for this Sunday's game. I'm begging you. If I have to hear another amazing David Tyree catch-esque play ruined by your monotonous tone, I'm going to go ballistic.
-The worst part about seeing the Steelers winning the Super Bowl? Hearing from all of the Brett Favre supporters about how this would have never happened had Brett Favre played on their team. You know that it's going to happen. It's just going to be a matter of time.1. Marshall Faulk
2. Deion Sanders
3. Cris Carter
4. Richard Dent
5. Ed Sabol
6. Chris Hanburger
7. Les Richter
(UPDATE 02/05: Way to go, Pro Football Hall of Fame voters!)
- NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith makes a hell of a case for supporting his side during the CBA negotiations. Not only is he arguing that his side is okay with this current deal and that it's the owners who want change, but he is also making the case that it will be the owners, not the NFLPA, that will be the main cause of the lockout. I just wonder which side the majority of the American public, if there will be one, will go with when (not if) the current CBA deal expires March 6th and the worst possible scenario for NFL fans everywhere (no football in the fall of 2011) slowly turns into reality.
-I don't understand the need for sportswriters (*cough cough PETER KING cough BILL SIMMONS cough LES CARPENTER cough cough*) to bitch about the location and weather of the Super Bowl. Oh, why oh why did my employers take me to this piece of dump that doesn't have 70 degree temperature and bright sunshine! THE SUPER BOWL WAS MEANT TO BE PLAYED IN CITIES WHERE I CAN GO OUTSIDE AND SHOOT A ROUND OF GOLF, GOD DAMMIT! Oh, won't someone please think of the CEO of McDonalds, who won't enjoy his $20,000 seats in perfect weather! You're job is to cover the biggest event in all of American sports for free with all expenses paid! Stop spending precious paragraphs on how the weather isn't for your liking! And if you still have problems with the city or weather, I would be glad if you gave your reporting duties to me instead. At least I would treat it with the honor and responsibility that is required of it.
-Dear Joe Buck,
You have heard for the last three years from millions of people about how your announcing was the worst part of watching Super Bowl XLII. Please take this into account and use it in order to improve your broadcasting for this Sunday's game. I'm begging you. If I have to hear another amazing David Tyree catch-esque play ruined by your monotonous tone, I'm going to go ballistic.
- Remember last year when I said that the Super Bowl XLIV commercials were one of the worst collections ever? Yeah, let's hope Sunday's commercials don't bother to top it.
-Just when you thought that the Packers team photo story was the worst part about Super Bowl week, the story of Ben Roethlisberger spending a night drinking at a Dallas piano bar and singing along to Billy Joel's "Piano Man" happens. Look, I know all about Roethlisberger's rape accusations this past spring and I know that going out in southern bars has not resulted in his best moments. But it was a Tuesday night and he was just out harmlessly having fun in a harmless (and I assume safe) piano bar. No need to treat it like a big story, or go out on TV saying that it isn't a big story, thus making it a big story in the process, people. This is why the length between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl should go back to being a week in length!
-My vote for the ten best Super Bowls of all-time:
10. Super Bowl III: New York Jets vs. Baltimore Colts (16-7)
This is a game that I put on my list only because of its importance and its historical impact on the NFL, the soon to be defunct AFL and proffesional football itself (since the game itself was pretty boring and uninteresting). Coming into the game, the NFL champion Baltimore Colts coached by a young Don Shula and led by back-up quarterback Earl Morall entered the game as 18 point underdogs over the AFL Champion New York Jets since this was still the time when the NFL was considered much more inferior than the pesky AFL and because the NFL's Green Bay Packers crushed their AFL opponents in the first two Super Bowls. Three days before the game, however, while sitting by the pool of the Miami Touchdown Club, Jets QB and AFL first team player Joe Namath refudiated the claim that the Colts were going to win big, famously saying "We're gonna win the game. I guarantee it." Not many people outside of the players in the Jets locker room as well a few New York fans actually believed in Namath's guarantee.
The situation, however, changed dramatically during gametime. Thanks to a number of factors that include the play of Namath (17 of 28 for 206 yards, the magnificent job of Jets RB/the man who should've won MVP that game Matt Snell (121 yards rushing and the only TD in that game) and a poor game by Morall (6 for 17 for 0 TDs and 3 INTS), the Jets would go on to...well, not dominate as so much as they just made fewer mistakes the first three quarters 16-0. Things got so bad for Baltimore during this game that they had to use Johnny Unitas, then a 35 year old aging quarterback playing with a sore arm that he injured in the '68 preseason, to finish the rest of the game (Unitas, by the way, would finish with 110 yards and an INT). The Colts would finally score on a garbage time TD run by Jerry Hill in the 4th, but that was the only scoring play that Baltimore had. The Jets would go on to finish the game with a shocking 16-7 and Namath, who would be named game MVP, jogging to the Jets locker room with his index finger making the now famous "No. 1" as it was pointing in the air. Forty two years later, the game is still considered to be one of the biggest upsets in sports history and one that gave the AFL a little more respect as the two leagues were heading to a merger nearly a full year after the game.
9. XXXVI: New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams (20-17)
Much like the Jets in Super Bowl III, the upstarting Patriots came into this game also as heavy underdogs, only they were expected to lose by 14 points and not 18 points like the Jets. After all, they were facing a team in the St. Louis Rams that had won the Super Bowl two years earlier (more on that game later) led the lead in almost every major offensive category possible, including passing yards, scoring and total offense, had the league's MVP that season, QB Kurt Warner (who threw for over 4,300 yards that season) and dominated the majority of their opponents that season. What would result, however, would be another game added into the list of the greatest upsets in NFL history as well as a game that began a dynasty in New England. The first three quarters, to the surprise of many not in a New England uniform, ended with the Patriots taking a 17-3 thanks in large part to a great job by the Patriots defense stopping the Greatest Show on Turf, a Ty Law 45 yard interception return for a score and efficient play by Tom Brady that even had him throwing an 8 yard TD pass to David Patten. In the 4th quarter, however, momentum shifted dramatically as the St. Louis offense finally found its stride, scoring 14 unanswered points, including a Warner 26 yard TD pass to Ricky Proehl with 1:30 to play in the 4th quarter to tie the game 17-17. It looked like the first overtime in Super Bowl history was imminent.
Of course, what followed next would be one of the greatest final drives in Super Bowl history and one that began the legend of Tom Brady. Instead of following the advice of then FOX color commentator John Madden and running out the clock (the Rams had zero timeouts left), the Patriots attempted to score the game winning points in regulation time. It was a terrific final drive anchored by Brady, who went 5 for 6 during the process, that included three completed throws to J.R. Redmond, a 23 yarder to Troy Brown and a 6 yarder to tight end Jermaine Wiggins. While Brady did not lead New England to a touchdown, he did lead the Patriots offense to the Rams 30 yard line, which set up a potentially game winning field goal to kicker Adam Vinateri, whose greatest field goal before was the game winner against Oakland in the snow during the infamous Tuck Rule game. Vinateri knocked in the 48 yard field goal perfectly, and the Patriots shockingly defeated the Rams 20-17, beginning their string of three Super Bowls in four years.
8. XIII: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys (35-31)
In the game's fist truly great Super Bowl, you had a matchup of two of the most successful teams of the 70s (the Steelers, winners of Super Bowls IX and X and led by coach Chuck Noll as well as legendary Hall of Famers that included Terry Bradshaw, Joe Greene, Jack Lambert and Franco Harris, and the Cowboys, winners of Super Bowls VI and XII and led by Tom Landry as well as legendary Hall of Famers Roger Staubach and Tony Dorsett) battling out to become the first franchise ever with three Lombardi Trophies. The game was a pretty high scoring affair, one that saw two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time (Bradshaw and Staubach) in their peaks and showing why by throwing for seven combined TD passes (4 by Bradshaw, 3 by Staubach) and was pretty competitive throughout despite the fact that Pittsburgh at one point led 35-17 in the 4h quarter. Of course, no play in this game was more famous than the one that happened late in the 3rd quarter when, with Pittsburgh leading 21-14, Roger Staubach threw a pass to wide receiver and fellow Hall of Famer Jackie Smith into the endzone that was at first caught, but then bobbled and ultimately dropped out of his hands, eliminating the touchdown that would have been counted. Had Smith not been "the most sickest man in Dallas" and held onto that play, the Cowboys would have won the game. Instead, Pittsburgh would go onto win it, their third in five seasons, and Bradshaw would be named MVP for his four TD performance.
7. XXV: New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills (20-19)
This is a game that proved what would happen if an unstoppable force met and immovable object. The Buffalo Bills entered the game as the league's top rated no-huddle offense led by powerful arm of Jim Kelly, the power of RB Thurman Thomas and the speed of WR Andre Reed. The New York Giants, meanwhile, entered the game as the league's top rated defense, led by the coaching of defensive mastermind Bill Parcells and legendary players including the greatest LB of all-time, Lawrence Taylor. Turns out it would be defense and conservative football that would prevail with both defenses not allowing their opposing offenses to score more than 9 points in a quarter. In the first play of the 4th quarter, Thurman Thomas scored a go-ahead touchdown to put the Bills up 19-17. The Giants offense would repond, however, with a 14 play, 74 yard drive that resulted in a 21 yard field goal by kicker Matt Bahr to put New York up 20-19 (it would have been a touchdown, but the Bills defense stopped the Giants offense three yards short from the endzone).
Later in the 4th, the Bills offense would receive possession 2:16 left on the clock and the team needed either a touchdown or a field goal to win the game. After Kelly led the Bills down the field for seventy nine yards, setting up a 47 yard field goal attempt on grass for kicker Scott Norwood with eight seconds to go. Then, in a moment that still haunts the minds of Bills fans today, Norwood's kick ends up missing wide right as time expires, sealing the victory for New York and giving them their second Super Bowl in franchise history. The Bills would go onto three straight Super Bowls after that, but still never found a way to win those as well.
6. XXIII: San Fransisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (20-16)
Late in the 4th quarter, with both teams were tied at 13 apiece thanks in large part to a first half that saw only 3 points scored by both teams and a touchdown each by both teams early second half (a 93 yard kickoff return for a TD by Stanford Jennings and a Joe Montana 14 yard pass to Jerry Rice), Bengals quarterback Boomer Esiason led his offense on a 10 play, 46 yard drive that ended in kicker Jim Breech's 40 yard go-ahead field goal with 3:20 left in the football game. Things didn't get better for the 49ers on the next play, when on the ensuing kick-off an illegal block penalty was called in favor of Cincinnati that started the ensuing 49ers possession at their own 8 yard line. Usually under circumstances like this, it would seem that a victory for the Bengals would be imminent. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, who had previously lost to the 49ers before in the Super Bowl (XVI, to be exact), their defense was up against Joe Montana, one of the greatest QB all-time in pressure packed situations. In one of the best individuals moments of his pro career, Montana led the 49ers on a 11 play, 92 yard drive that culminated when he threw the game winning 10 yard touchdown pass to John Taylor with 36 seconds left in the game to put San Fran up 20-16 (side note: Taylor was so wide open only because Bengals coach Sam Wyche wanted his defense to double cover Rice, who had a game for the ages that night). It would be the third 49ers title in eight years as Montana finished the game 23 of 36 passing for a then Super Bowl record 357 yards, but did not win MVP as that honor went to Jerry Rice, who caught eleven balls for a Super Bowl record 215 yards and a touchdown.
5. XXXII: Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers (31-24)
In three previous chances, John Elway played in the Super Bowl but lost all three of those matchups. In the '97 season, thanks to his team's explosive offense (top rated in the league that year), the terrific play by RB Terrell Davis (who rushed for a league leading 1,750 yards) and two playoff victories over the Jaguars, Chiefs and Steelers, Elway made it back for his fourth try at winning the Super Bowl. This time, he was going up against Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers who had won the Big Game the year before. The first half started with both teams playing terrifically on the offensive side of the football with both the Packers and the Broncos scoring two touchdowns each, but it was a Jason Elam 51 yard field goal in the middle of the second quarter that gave Denver a 17-14 lead heading into halftime. In the third quarter, following a Packers 27 yard field goal conversion by kicker Ryan Longwell, John Elway converted a pivotal first down to the Packers one yard line in what his now known as his famous helicopter flip, still one of the most memorable moments in Super Bowl history. On the next play, Terrel Davis, who had a touchdown scored already, had himself a second one yard touchdown run that would give thee Broncos a 24-17 lead that would stand heading into the 4th quarter.
In the fourth, after an interception by Packers safety Eugene Robinson, Favre, who had previous won the MVP award for that season and the two seasons prior, led Green Bay on an impressive 85 yard drive that ended on a 13 yard TD pass to Antonio Freeman to tie the game at 24 apiece. Later on, after both teams exchange two punts, Denver received the football at the Green Bay 49 yard with 3:27 remaining in the game. Three plays (including a Elway 23 yard pass to FB Howard Griffith and a 17 yard run by Davis) and a 15 yard holding penalty by Green Bay later, Davis did it again, rushing for another 1 yard TD run to put the Broncos up 31-24 with 1:45 remaining in the game. The Packers offense would not respond with the touchdown of their own later in the game, and Denver would go on to win the game. Terrel Davis went home with the game's MVP trophy after rushing for 157 yards and a Super Bowl record 3 TDs, and Elway (along with the Broncos franchise) hoisted the Lombardi trophy for the first time ever.
4. XXXVIII: New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers (32-29)
Today, this fantastic Super Bowl is best remembered not for what happened when both teams played, but what happened when both teams were in their locker room. It was during halftime of that game when pop singer Janet Jackson had her now infamous "wardrobe malfunction" while performing on stage with Justin Timberlake, costing CBS $550,000 in fines by the FCC. This is a shame, because this was a game that was not only great but also featured the most exciting finish of all-time. After the Patriots ended the third quarter leading 14-10, both teams put up a 4th quarter to remember, with 37 combined points. 34 of these points included a 2 yard TD run by Antowain Smith, an 85 yard pass from QB Jake Delholmme to Muhsin Muhammad, a 1 yard TD pass from Tom Brady to Mike Vrabel of all people.
It really was all going to go down to which team would have the ball last, and as it turned out it would be given to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. After Jake Delholmme threw a game tying TD pass to Ricky Proehl (the same man who caught the Rams game tying touchdown at the end of Super Bowl XVI, by the way), the Patriots ended up winning the game in a deja vu of how they won Super Bowl XXXVI, with Brady leading the Patriots in field goal position (thanks in large part to Panthers kicker John Kasay kicking the ensuing kick-off out of bounds which gave Patriots hte football at their own 40 yard line) and Adam Vinateri kicking a field goal, this time from 48 yards, as time expired to win the game (the first person to ever win two separate Super Bowls by kicking a game winner). Brady would end up as the Super Bowl MVP for the second time (another way that the ending to this game was much like the one two years ago) and the Patriots would go on to win one more Super Bowl (SB XXXIX) before wrapping up their dynasty.
3. XXXIV: St. Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans (23-16)
The 1999 St. Louis Rams featured one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history. Nicknamed the Greatest Show on Turf and led by offensive coordinator Mike Martz, St. Louis led the lead in almost every major statistical category with RB Marshall Faulk (the league's Offensive Player of the Year that season after going for 2,429 yards from scrimmage, the most ever in NFL history until Chris Johnson broke that record in 2009) and QB Kurt Warner (the league's MVP that season after throwing for 4,353 passing yards, 41 TDs and a passer rating of 109.5) leading the way. In Super Bowl XXXIV, they would face another surprising conference champion in the Tennessee Titans led by QB Steve McNair and RB Eddie George, who had a wonderful 1,350 yards rushing that season. Together, these two teams would play in a Super Bowl that was one of the most exciting to ever be played.
St. Louis would finish each of the first three quarters holding the lead, at one point leading as much as 16-0 thanks to three Jeff Wilkins field goals and a Warner TD pass to Torry Holt. The Titans would find a way to come back, however, scoring 16 unanswered points in the 3rd and 4th quarter (the majority of them on short TD runs by Eddie George) to tie the game at 16 apiece with 2:12 remaining in regulation time. The tie wouldn't last long, however, as on the first play of St. Louis's final drive of the season, Warner completed a 73 yard TD pass to Isaac Bruce to give back the lead for the Rams. So with 1:48 to go, McNair and the Titans offense received the ball back one final time, needing a touchdown to tie the game at 23 and force the first overtime in Super Bowl history. Tennessee was very close to doing so, as they set up possession at St. Louis's 10 yard line with 0:06 on the clock. However, on the final play of the game, Rams LB Mike Jones famously stopped Titans WR Kenny Dyson one yard short from the endzone, costing Tennesse the potential tie and securing victory for St. Louis. Kurt Warner would end his Cinderella season from grocery store bagger to backup QB to football hero as the game's MVP with a Super Bowl record 414 yards that still stands today (he's also 2nd and 3rd on the list, too!).
2. XLII: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (17-14)
18-1, Manning to Tyree, Manning to Plaxico Burress for the game winning score, a historic upset...these are all of the great things that football fans and the 97.5 million people watching in the United States remember from watching this game that took place only three years ago. It was a fantastic game, a fantastic moment in NFL history, but not the greatest Super Bowl to be played as many people will have you believe. The real BEST Super Bowl matchup of all-time, on the other hand, was...
1. XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (27-23)
That's right, I'm taking the one that took place the year after in Tampa. Now, since this is the most recent game on our list and because this is currently the third most watched television event in American history and because you can click on the link above to watch the top highlights of that matchup, there's really no need to give you a full detail on this game. So instead, let me just spend this time explaining to you why this game deserves to be voted the greatest Super Bowl of all-time over Super Bowl XLII and why this is just not a case of short term memory:
a) This game featured three of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history, whereas Super Bowl XLII only featured one (the Tyree Catch). The first came at the end of the first half when James Harrison ran for a SB record 102 yards on an interception return for a touchdown, a play that I proclaimed to be the greatest ever around the same time last year and have yet to change my mind about it. The next two came in the 4th quarter, with the first being Larry Fitzgerald's straight path toward the end zone to complete the Cardinals unbelievable comeback in the 4th quarter and the second being the Roethlisberger TD pass to Santonio Holmes. I don't think that I can recall a game with that many really memorable moments in one Super Bowl outside of maybe Super Bowl XXXVIII.
b) While the Giants-Patriots game had a very memorable 4th quarter (much like the Steelers-Cardinals game), the first three quarters were kind of a bore, with a combined one touchdown scored by both teams and the Patriots leading 7-3 through those first 45 minutes. This game, meanwhile, had more points scored than SB XLII but was also fascinating to watch throughout with the only dull moments being the 3rd quarter where there was only one score (the field goal by Jeff Reed).
c) The Kurt Warner factor. All three of the Super Bowls which he has been involved were selected in the top ten, including this game and SB XXXIV (#3). That guy just always seems to be part of a memorable Super Bowl.
d) As a football fan, I have never more more entertained and more on the edge of my feet than while watching this game. Maybe it's because I was at a Super Bowl party with people that were really into it (then again, when everyone betted $10 each on the result of the game, there's bound to be more emotion), maybe it's because of the wild finish. But whatever what the case, the game still left me speechless and feeling really like I just watched real giddy inside for seeing it, like after I watched "The Dark Knight" for the first time. SB XLII did definitely bring it, but not in the way that this game did.
e) I picked this game as my favorite NFL game of the 2000s back in December of '09, so I might as well stay constant with my picks. Besides, on the NFL Network's TV show "The NFL's Top Ten" where they actually counted down the greatest Super Bowls of all-time, they ended up naming this game number one as well. I think it should matter that a show on the network owned by the league that plays the Super Bowl voted it number one, don't you?
There's my list, and I'm sticking with it. Though, I do have a nice feeling that the debate of which Super Bowl was better: XLII or XLIII will be one that will last for a long time, unless there's a Super Bowl in the future that ends up being much better than the two (which at this point would have either if a) both teams score in the 40s or 50s b) if both teams play the first ever overtime in Super Bowl history, or c) one team wins it on a last second TD).
So there you have it. I'm picking Pittsburgh to win title number seven while mj50's got Aaron Rodgers and the Packers bringing the Vince Lombardi trophy home. The only remaining thing now left is to watch the damn game and see what memories it will bring us, good or bad. Now, since this post is also the last of my columns dedicated to predicting games throughout the 2010 NFL season ( a season in which I finished five wins better than in '09, by the way!), I would also like to take this remaining time that I have to thank the individuals and websites that have helped me in writing the best twenty two posts dedicated to the NFL that I could have written from early September until now. So thank you NFL.com and your glorious bundle of riches that included highlights, players stats, team stats, league leaders, ESPN.com and Deadspin.com for the additional stats and occasionally insightful writing, Wikipedia for your player bios, YouTube and Hulu for your wonderful library of videos, KissingSuzyKolber.com for the laughs, Football Locks for the lines that's it provided for every game this past season, and any other websites or publications that I may have linked or use to back up my picks and/or share some interesting info during this columns!
I would also like to thank mj50 for being a good sport and continuing to share his quick picks despite losing most of the time &, most importantly, you for reading these posts all season long. All of the NFL predictions post that I have done this season have been a) for free and b) as a labor of love. I just hope that, in the end, you enjoyed reading them as much as I enjoyed writing them. So, enjoy the Big Game on Sunday, enjoy all of the memories that it will bring you, and make sure to return this fall when I will be back to bring you my weekly picks once the 2011 season starts (if there will be a 2011 season at all) this September. If there is indeed a lockout that will cancel the season (which won't happen, hopefully)...then I guess I will have to think of some replacement column. How does a UFL predictions column sound to you?
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
(UPDATE 02/07: The Green Bay Packers are champions of Super Bowl XLV after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was named the game's MVP. If you want my take on the entire proceedings, click here. Otherwise, enjoy the offseason and make sure to pray that the CBA dispute ends as soon as possible.)
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or
tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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