Get ready to hear a bunch of middle aged Americans pretend that this man's nonthreatening banter made the Oscars fun to watch again come Monday.
In less than forty eight hours from now, the top stars and executives in the film industry will all gather at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood for this year's edition of the Academy Awards, arguably the most prestigious of all prestigious awards show, where we find out whose work this year in movies a bunch of white men liked the most. Billy Crystal will host the Brian Grazer produced telecast (one which will probably end up as the lowest rated ever thanks to the fact that only one of the films up for Best Picture grossed over $100 million in the box office) in what will be the man's ninth time hosting after original hosting choice Eddie Murphy decided that he would rather stay loyal to his "Tower Heist" director instead. It's Hollywood's biggest night, and for those of us who were not lucky to be invited and have fun with all of the beautiful people, it means that all that's left is to sit back, watch along at home, and maybe speculate on what's going to happen before hand.
This is where this post comes in, as for the third year in the row I will be selecting my picks for eleven of the night's biggest awards. Before I get started, I just want to remind everyone that this is not a predictions post coming from somebody who is an avid moviegoer and who basis his picks based on his own critique of every film. And while this year I broke my record for most Best Picture nominated films watched beforehand with five (in chronological order: "The Tree of Life," "Midnight in Paris," "Moneyball," "The Help," and "The Artist"), it's still not enough for me to base my entire post on that basis alone. So, instead, the following predictions that you're about to see are mostly based on a combination of a few factors: critical reception, momentum, and past accolades. It may not be the most honest method, but it usually works.
Now, let's get right down to business!
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Prediction: "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory"
This one was a pretty tough choice for me to decide simply because there just wasn't any clear frontrunners this year. All five films have been critically acclaimed (although not as much so as "The Interrupters" and "Senna" were, two films that got surprisingly shortlisted), and based on reading what other have had to say on this category I have no reason to believe that any one of these five won't be taking home the gold. Part of me wanted to choose "Undefeated" simply because it's a Harvey Weinstein film, and as we've have seen in the past few years ("The English Patient," "The King's Speech" and now "The Artist") the man has the talent of swaying voters his way through guerrilla marketing and hype. "Pina" was also a pretty tempting choice simply because I assume that the Academy might have been breathtaken enough by the 3D to give this dance documentary their love. But for my money, this category is probably going to be awarded to "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory," the final film of the documentary trilogy by Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky. This is one of those rare films that have actually made a real impact on people's lives, and I think it'll be helped a lot by the ending, with each member of the "West Memphis 3" finally being released from prison and nearly two decades locked up behind bars.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Prediction: "A Separation"
An Iranian film about the divorce of a middle-class couple that many have claimed to be not only the best foreign film of the year, but also the best film period. None of the other films nominated in this category have a chance in upsetting them.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Prediction: "Rango"
Animation studio powerhouse Pixar does not have a film nominated this year, which means that for the first time since 2006 there will be another studio that will take be taking center stage once the winner is announced. Unfortunately, just because Pixar isn't in the race does not mean that it's the most wide open that it has ever been. Over the past few weeks, it has been made pretty clear that "Rango," the Gore Verbanski computer animated film with Johnny Depp's starring voice the Paramount stamp of approval will be entering the awards ceremony with all of the talking points, all of the buzz, and in the end all of the accolades. The rest of the films are either Dreamworks films that were pleasant to watch but not well-made enough for an award ("Kung Fu Panda," "Puss in Boots") or too small scale in recognition ("A Cat in Paris," "Chico and Rita").
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Winner of the Golden Globe a mere month and a half prior, Allen's script has been heralded as one of his best, and with good reason, as it really was the highlight of arguably his best 21st Century film. But then again, any dedicated writer would do a great job given the opportunity of writing dialogue for the likes of Ernest Hemmingway, the Fitzgeralds, and Salvador Dali, let alone a man like Woody Allen who has been nominated in this category 14 times before and won it twice. "The Artist" and "A Separation" could upset, but I highly doubt that this will be the case. Once again, this is yet another Oscars no-brainer.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, "The Descendants"
When "The Descendants" premiered in theaters this past November, it was essentially predicted to compete toe to toe with "The Artist" come Oscar night. However, despite picking up all of the major Golden Globe Awards in the drama categories this past January, "The Descendant's" prospect of hitting big come Oscar night (particularly in categories like Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Director) once "The Artist" started winning big in pretty much every other awards show in sight. One category that "The Descendants" hasn't been bested by "The Artist" at this point has been in the screenplay category, where it's chances of winning have all but decreased. It picked up the WGA Award in the very same category a mere week ago, and it's expected to pick up the Independent Spirit Award as well. The closest competitor for the trio who wrote it is Aaron Sorkin (winner of this same category last year) with his script for "Moneyball" that he co-wrote with Steven Zaillian. The duo beat them for the Golden Globes last month, but their momentum has been waning in the last few weeks, and I have a feeling that Sorkin's win last year will prevent the Academy from giving the man his second in a row.
Besides, why would anyone deny "Community's" Dean Pelton the Oscar? I mean, just look how fabulous he looks in this painsuit!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Christopher Plummer as Hal Fields in "The Beginners"
It's kind of hard not to pick Plummer in this category, simply because the man has won pretty much every other major award out there, including the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the SAG, and most likely tomorrow's Independent Spirit Award (not to mention about a dozen other major accolades from critics organizations). In an acting career that has spanned nearly 55 years, expect to see the 82 year old finally hoisting the Oscar that he has so long deserved.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Octavia Spencer as Minny Jackson in "The Help"
"The Help" has received polarizing reviews ever since it premiered in theaters, but there's always been one thing that pretty much everybody watching it has agreed on: the acting is pretty damn good. One of the highlights, of course, was Spencer's performance as Minny Jackson, the frustrated Southern maid who helped Emma Stone write a tell-all book about all the random escapades with her feces (or something like that). Like her male counterpart Christopher Plummer, Spencer has also led the way in previous victories for a category where no one (not even the female co-star of "The Artist") has given her any serious competition. Hopefully this will be the start of a nice career to come, although considering the limited number of roles for black women in Hollywood, I have a feeling that it will end up being more "one-and-done" at best.
BEST ACTOR
Prediction: Jean Dujardin as George Valentin in "The Artist"
At this point, this category is just basically a two-man race between Dujardin and George Clooney, both of whom picked up a Golden Globes for themselves last month. At first, I thought that perhaps Clooney would pick up the award, since the man already has an Oscar under his belt and had what was one of his best performances in years from the minds of many critics that have seen it. That said, Clooney is someone who in undoubtedly be nominated for many more Oscars to come. At this point, it doesn't look as Dujardin has the same kind of future, and I feel that the Academy will use this kind of logic to give him the win. Plus, he picked up the SAG Award last month, and that awards show has been dead on since 2005 when it comes to foreshadowing who would win this category.
BEST ACTRESS
Prediction: Viola Davis as Aibileen Clark in "The Help"
Another category that's in a two-horse race, another category that will probably be won by the lesser known name. From all that I've heard, Meryl Streep was superb playing Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady" and most definitely deserves was is a record 17th career nomination for her role in that film. However, I think that her many victories and acting triumphs in the past will be the factor that prevents her from winning on Sunday, along with the fact that no actress has won the award without her film being nominated for Best Picture since Marion Cotillard did it in 2007. Davis, on the other hand, was the backbone of "The Help," playing her role with great dignity and depth.She also seems to have the edge in support of the Academy by what I've been reading in recent weeks. Expect to see her upset the veteran actress to become only the second black woman in history to pick up a victory in this category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Prediction: Michael Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
When deciding this category, I just usually do it like my man Roger Ebert and pick the guy that won the Directors Guild of America award for the same year. The winner of the DGA has won the Oscar for Best Director ten times out of the last 11 years, and this year it went to the Frenchman with the tough-to-pronounce name who decided to make an homage to the silent film. Martin Scorsese and Alexander Payne are the two that have the best chance to pull the upset in this one.
BEST PICTURE
Prediction: "The Artist"
Was it the really the best film of the year? No, not really. But then again, that hardly ever happens at the Oscars these days. Was it a proper homage to the long abandoned silent film genre? Not to those who are fans of silent films they are. But it's still a delightful, feel good film that appeals to people with its nostalgia and grand novelty, and for that reason it's going to complete it's tour-de-force winter of award wins after award wins with the most prestigious award of all.
In the previous two years that I've been giving out Oscar picks, my success rate in predicting this awards show has been fairly decent, with myself finishing each year with 8 out of 10 correct and 7 out of 9 categories correct respectively. Selfishly, I hope that I can do just as well (if not better) this time around. Anyways, that's going to do it with this post. Enjoy Oscar Night, everyone!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
No comments:
Post a Comment