2010 NFL Predictions- Week 15: The Week Sh*T Starts to Get Real

With the NFL regular season winding down and the playoff in the near future, a lot of storylines are pooping up that are of note for not just this week, but for the next three weeks. Here are seven that I think should be of particular interest:

The Race for NFL MVP:
It has been quite a packed and differentiating field of candidates as the season progressed. But now, after three and a half quarters of the field finally wrapped up, there seems to be only five or so remaining that will likely end up receiving the award once it is given out in January.
Maurice Jones-Drew- Jaguars RB
It's no coincidence that, during the same time that the Jaguars have gone from a last place team to one win away from the AFC South championship, Jones-Drew has put up the best string of rushing performances in the NFL this season. Since week 8, Jones-Drew has rushed for six straight 100 yard games and 4 TDs. Now, he's second in the league with 1278 rushing yards (only behind Arian Foster's 1330 in this category) and might have just entered the national discussion for MVP
Peyton Manning- Colts QB
Even with the Colts struggles' this season that has put them one loss away from getting eliminated from playoff contention this season, you can never count out someone as good as Manning has been not just this season, but also in his career. For starters, he's won the award for the past two seasons. Second, he has essentially been the only reason why the Colts are even in playoff contention at this point and not looking forward to a top five selection in the 2011 draft, with another 4,000 yard season in the books and is on pace for a career most 600 passing attempts. Unless the Colts lose their remaining three games, I wouldn't count out Manning at all in this point.
Michael Vick- Eagles QB
He's already locked for this year's Comeback Player of the Year, but can this man who was in jail nearly eighteen months ago possibly end up winning the league's MVP after his first full season back? Well, yeah, it's very possible. For starters, he's only lost once this season as Eagles QB when he's played the entire game. He's also brought a very dangerous presence to the Eagles offense that hasn't been seen since the early McNabb years, and has done an outstanding job slowly healing the public perception of him over the years.
Phillip Rivers- Chargers QB
I think his candidacy for MVP isn't that complicated. Currently, he's one of the league leaders in almost every major statistical passing category. He leads this San Diego offense which has been ranked as the league's top passing offense and total offense. He's also helped Antonio Gates with a career season (with one leg hurt most of the season), and has led this year's annual Chargers late second half comeback to get back into the race for the AFC West title. The only downside is because of that dissapointing record for the Chargers (7-6). However, if the Chargers do manage to finish the season with the playoff berth, expect the push for Rivers as MVP to escalate.
Tom Brady- Patriots QB
He's the best player on the best team in football right now; top ten this season in total yards and yards per game; top five this season in completion percentage; is tied for the league lead in touchdowns and has solo possession of the best QB rating in the league. He's also single handily re-energized the career of Deion Branch, ruined Randy Moss's season and made once nobodys like Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead household names. Basically, he IS the frontrunner for this award at this point. The other four are just catching up to him.

The Race for the NFC's #2 seed
It's a foregone conclusion at this point that its Atlanta's to lose for the #1 seed and the homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. This now leaves four teams that are fighting for the #2 seed and the other wild card week bye: Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia and the Giants. Since Chicago is the leader of the NFC North at 9-4 and has the advantage over NFC East leader Philadelphia, they are the clubhouse leader at this point. However, they only have a one game lead over Green Bay at this point. Also, since the Giants beat them earlier this season, New York will have the edge over them if both end up as division champs and with the same identical record.

The Race for the #1 pick in the draft (a.k.a The Andrew Luck/ Prince Amukamara tournament)
Currently, its Carolina in the lead with their pitiful 1-12 record. The team closest to chasing (if you call it chasing, that is) is the 2-11 Cincinnati Bengals, followed by three teams at 3-10 (Denver, Buffalo and Detroit). Carolina has the Cardinals at home in a noon game, so if the Mike Greenberg theory is correct (and it usually is), Carolina will will and improve their wins total to two games, making things more interesting. All in all, I think its just going to go down to which organization wants that #1 pick more. But who?

The Pathetic NFC West
Let's break it all down shall we (12/18 note: this breakdown has now added San Fran's loss to the Chargers):

St. Louis (6-7): vs. Kansas City, vs. San Fransisco, at Seattle
Seattle (6-7): vs. Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, vs. St. Louis
San Fransisco (5-9): at St. Louis, vs. Arizona
Arizona (4-9): at Carolina, vs. Dallas, at San Fransisco

I will give my explanation later, but I think that the Cardinals will lose to Carolina this week, eliminating them from playoff contention. This leaves three teams: the Rams, the Seahawks, and the 49ers. San Fransisco lost on Thursday to San Diego, but since I believe that the other two teams will lose this week as well, that will still keep them in contention in week 16. So what's going to happen next? Well, the Seahawks will lose to Tampa Bay, and because the Rams will be the home team in next week's matchup vs, San Fran', they will win that matchup. This will eliminate the 49ers from the division title, leaving only the 7-8 Rams vs. the 6-9 Seahawks in a final matchup to decide the division title once and for all.

Seattle will have the edge playing at home, which is great because they are a much better home team than on the road and the Rams have only won one road game this season. However, the Rams did defeat the Seahawks earlier this season, so the team knows how to defeat them and should use that to their advantage. Furthermore, St. Louis has the advantage in this matchup in quarterbacks (future Offensive Rookie of the Year Sam Bradford > aging Matt Hasselback), running game, and at defense. St. Louis will win, improve their record to 8-8 (two better than the Seahawks 6-10 record) and end up as the NFC West champions. I repeat: this is how I think its going to end up. For all we know, Seattle could win out and they could end up champions or San Fransisco could win at 7-9. Either way, the fact that a team like the 4-9 Cardinals still has a chance at a potential playoff spot just goes to show you how awful this division has been.

The Possible End of the Colts Seven Year Playoff Streak
All it takes is one loss to Jacksonville this week. That's it. Will it happen? I think it will (reason why below), but then again the pedigree of that team is just too respectful and Manning is just too dam good to count them out.

Brett Favre Sitting on the Minnesota Bench in the Final Three Games of his Career
Thanks to Buffalo God-send Arthur Moats, Brett Favre's 297 regular season starts streak finally came to an end Monday night. According to multiple sources (including the Boston Herald), Favre will also get benched in Monday night's Ice Bowl sequel versus Chicago with rookie Joe Webb from UAB making his first career start, so it appears ever more likely that the man with the world's most famous athlete dong will play the rest of the season sitting on the bench, pondering how pointless this season has been for him. In a way, I suppose that this is the most fitting ending for Favre. With the big risk that the Vikings took this August signing a 40 year old man like Favre for another season, it was either going to end with a repeat performance of 2009 or a horrible disaster highlighted by an injury to Favre. Turns out, it was the latter

Mike Shanahan vs. Donovan McNabb in the Who's Going to Leave Washington First Sweepstakes?
It seems clear that in a season for Washington that has featured Shanahan benching McNabb in the two minute warning vs. Detroit (followed by McNabb signing a big contract extension weeks later), the poor record for the 'Skins, and the recent news that McNabb is benched for the remainder of the season that one of these two men have to go at the end of the season. At this point, its going to come down to the play of Washington, and specifically Rex Grossman, for the remainder of this season. If Washington finishes their final three games with a 1-2 or 0-3 record and it turns out that Bad Rex will be the Rex to show up, then expect upper management to use that, the team's struggles this season, Shanahan's big ego and his continuing opinions of how the team should be run to fire the former two-time Super Bowl champion and keep #5. However, if the Redskins manage to perform well and Grossman actually looks reliable on the field, then I wouldn't be surprised if McNabb is thrown out of town instead.

The rest of the things to look out for are what I like to call "the usuals" (division titles, playoff spots, final games for coaches, etc.). Now, let's get our focus on this season's long term and focus more on the short term, specifically on this week's game in the NFL season and the predictions of these games by myself and my old man, mj50. Last week was a pretty dissapointing week for me after a few weeks in a row of winning 12 or 13 games, going 10-6. Fortunately, mj50 did slightly worse than myself, going 9-7 (Ed. note: the week was decided by Monday's Giants/Vikings matchup). So, what will our fortunes be this week? That will be decided as the weekend progresses. Until then, here are the list of games for this, week 15 of the 2010 season season, along with the picks. As always, the games are based on the Central standard time zone.

Let's begin:

San Fransisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers (-9): Thursday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Both teams, despite their disappointing seasons with the Chargers at 7-6 and the 49ers at 5-8, are still a game back off the division lead and they're only chance of getting a playoff spot. Therefore, the pressure is on for both teams to get a victory here in order to keep their season alive. Because of this, I'm having to go to the team that has handled great adversity and the most win or go home games over the past few years, since experience usually trumps inexperience. The last time I can recall Gore, Smith and the rest of the 49ers fighting for a potential playoff spot this late in the season was back in 2006 when they were one back of the division lead with two games to go in the season. Phillip Rivers, Norv Turner and the rest of the Chargers have constantly faced win-or-die situations, from battling struggles in the first half of the season since the live action Principal Skinner took over as head coach, played in five playoff games (winning two of them), and there was that whole down two games to the Broncos with three games to play situation in 2008. So for that reason, I'm taking San Diego to win this one.
mj50's pick: San Diego

Kansas City Chiefs vs. St. Louis Rams (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Kansas City
This game is similar to the San Fran/San Diego game, except that both teams are trying to maintain their lead in the division and both haven't been this close to the playoffs since the mid-'00s. Both teams have relatively middle of the pack defenses, so it's going to be the team with the best offense who wins this one, which in this case in the Chiefs. St. Louis has an okay offenses, but they haven't scored a lot of points that possible playoff teams should (with a 25th ranked 18.8 points per game). Kansas City, meanwhile, has one of the league's best rushing attack led by Jamaal Charles who has an unprecedented 6.13 yards per carry (one of the greatest single single YPCs in NFL history), plus they've had a great connection developing between Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel. Therefore, Kansas City has gotten my total confidence in this one (that is, if Cassel is starting. If it's going to be Brodie Croyle again, then I just might have to change my pick). Count me in on Kansas City in this one!
(Update 12/19: Matt Cassel is starting this week for the Chiefs. I now officially stand by this pick.)
mj50's pick: St. Louis

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
The 2010 Houston Texans: You Won't Believe How Many Heartbreaking Losses We Can Create! The reverse-cardiac Texans did it again this Monday night. Down 15 points with 6 minutes to go, Houston miraculously comes back with two TD throws by Matt Schaub (including one on a 4th and 5), an extra point and a 2 point conversion. Then, just when it seems that the Texans look like they're destined to win this game and Baltimore is showing all signs of choking it away, Matt Schaub throws a pick-six to Josh Wilson and the Ravens avoid the defeat (highlights available here). So, if you're counting at home, that's a last second Hail Mary, an opposing team marching downfield 50 yards with :20 to go and the rare pick six for the loss, all in a span of five weeks. Amazing.

Anyways, despite their recent tough losses, I do see them finishing the year with a sweep of the Titans. The rushing defense was able to stop Chris Johnson the first time around, and I expect that to happen again without a versatile presence like Vince Young in the game. Also, as bad as the Texas passing game has been, Tennessee has also struggled to stop quarterbacks, giving up over 240 yards passing per game. Finally, Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson beats every passing combination that the Titans have to offer. So...yeah.
mj50's pick: Tennessee

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Carolina
Because I almost always go with the Mike Greenberg Theory, even if the West Coast team has a better record than the home team.
mj50's pick: Carolina

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
It's the battle for the week 15 lead in the AFC South! If the Jaguars win, they will clinch the division since they will have a two game lead with two games to play, plus the extra one game advantage having swept the Colts. If the Colts win, it will be a tie at the top of the division with both teams posting an 8-6 record with two games to go. How exciting! Anywho...while it does feel weird to me picking against Peyton Manning and the Colts in such a big regular season game, it's not like they're facing a team that they have dominated historically. Jacksonville is one of the few teams in the NFL that have played the Colts very close, if not winning a few times, in the past four or five seasons. Furthermore, there has been no hotter RB of late than Maurice Jones-Drew. Expect him to have a humongous week much like the game that Chris Johnson had against Indy had last week. In other words, yes, I do expect Indy to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002. How cool does that sound? Actually, forget I mentioned it. It just sounds to good to be true.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
For starters, Cleveland has been a poor road team this season, winning only one game in seven opportunities. Second, while Cleveland has been famous for beating or playing close against good teams this season, winning against New Orleans and New England and nearly defeating New York and Jacksonville, they have also struggled against bad teams, losing to Buffalo last week and nearly losing to Carolina a few weeks back. Finally, despite having Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator, this Browns team has struggled on many occasions to stop the passing game and the rushing game. Finally, that ten game losing streak for the Bengals has to come to an end at some point, and with the reasons that I just listed, I think that it could finally happen this time around.
mj50's pick: Cincinnati

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-5.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Miami
I'd hate to pick against the team that gave us the player who finally ended Brett Favre's 297 game consecutive starts streak (Arthur Moats), but this is unfortunately the case. The Dolphins have had a rock solid defense throughout the year, ranking in the top ten in points allowed, total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. It's kind of a shame that their entire offense is responding to this with the league's second worst point per game average (17.3), or else we could have talked about Miami as a potential Super Bowl contender. By the way, what the hell happened to that Dolphins running game? They were one of the best in 2009, and now neither Ronnie Brown nor '09 1,000 yard rusher Ricky Williams can rush for more than fifty yards per game! Has Tony Sparano just completly abandoned the Wildcat? Do they remember that they actually have a good RB duo in the backfield? I just don't get it.
mj50's pick: Miami

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. New York Giants: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
Mich. Ael. Vick. This guy's so good, players of the opposing team want his autograph! It's still a shame that the Eagles are still on track for that inevitable heart-crushing playoff loss in about a month from now. With a season like this from Vick, anything short of a Hollywood-approved Super Bowl victory would be disappointing.
mj50's pick: New York

HALFTIME! Here's some Mitch Hedberg goodness to kick off your Thursday evening. May this man R.I.P.



Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
Remember when the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to the Redskins, a team in their own division, and a bunch of people thought that that was a dumb move? It's amazing how much change can happen in a span of eight months! Now, the Eagles are looking at a possible Super Bowl berth with The Greatest Quarterback in the History of the Universe and Kevin Kolb in waiting just in case Philly do not resign him next season, while the Redskins are once again in a state of disarray. Anyways, the Redskins are playing like the Cowboys were in the final weeks of the Wade Phillips era in that it appears that they have just given up on the season. The Cowboys meanwhile are playing completely the opposite under Jason Garrett, playing every game as hard as they to try to get the win and have Garrett's title change from interim head coach to the team's just plain ol' head coach. Expect these two teams recent plays to continue in this matchup.
mj50's pick: Washington

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
I want to give a big thanks to Hunter Smith and Graham Cano, members of the Redskins special team who last week missed two chip shot field goals and an extra point to win against Tampa. Because of them, I can continue my recent trend of picking Tampa games simply based on whether they're taking on an under or over .500 team, still one of my favorite things to do in every weekly column. Because heaven forbid I use my brain to pick every one of the week's sixteen or so games!
mj50's pick: Tampa Bay

New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
Whereas it seems that the Ravens play a good team every week-and-a-half, there have only been two occasions where the Saints have played really good ball clubs: versus the Falcons and versus the Steelers. In those games, Drew Brees has thrown for an average of 335 yards and 2.5 TDs, and those teams have arguably better defenses this season than the Ravens. Add that to the playoff games from earlier in the year, and this man can play well under pressure (then again, that Super Bowl ring and SI Sportsman of the Year speaks for itself). Meanwhile, the other team has Joe Flacco as the starting QB. Don't get me wrong, I think that this game will be very well played and close throughout. But when you have an option of a team led by one of the best QBs in the league and a team with a on-again, off-again playing career, you have to go with the team with the great QB, right?
mj50's pick: Baltimore

Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Trap game my ass! The Falcons are going to win this one...and win this one BIG.
mj50's pick: Atlanta

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
Mark Sanchez is playing like Mark Sanchezes are supposed to. This can not be good with the team set to take on arguably the best team in the NFL right now not named the Patriots.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders (-6.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
It won't be the same 59-14 blowout that the Raiders put up against Denver a few weeks back, but this game should still end with a Raiders victory. Darren McFadden, who has been on a roll as of late, is facing the league's worst rushing defense, the Raiders offense can put up at least 25 points per game on you, and the 2010 Denver Broncos are, well, still the 2010 Denver Broncos. I have total confidence on Oakland in this one.
mj50's pick: Oakland

Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots (-11): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
In a span of ten weeks, the Patriots have gone 8-1. Six of these wins have come against the 9 win Baltimore Ravens, the underachieving but still dangerous San Diego Chargers, the 10 win Pittsburgh Steelers, the Peyton Manning-led Colts, the 9 win New York Jets (by 42 points, no less) and the 9 win Chicago Bears (by 29 points). They have seemigly replaced Randy Moss in the team to perfection, with Deion Branch playing on the team as he has never left in the first place and the White-Out combo of Danny Woodhead, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker having no troubles whatsoever. The team has also scored more points per game than any other team in the league, Tom Brady is looking like the front-runner for the MVP and they can seemingly play well in any conditions from sunshine to snow (especially snow). Whether or not they are the best team in football, I have no choice but to sadly admit that they are on the most impressive winning streaks out of any team this season. Let's just say that I find it hard to believe that their winning ways will stop this week at home (where they haven't lost since '08, by the way) against the Packers, whether its with Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay QB or Matt Flynn if Rodger's concussion is serious.
mj50's pick: New England

Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
Because of Sunday's epic destruction of the Metrodome roof, this game will be played outdoors in the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Satdium. According to the Pioneer Press, tickets will be sold at a "first come, firsst served" basis with no alchohol. Also, because this is an outdoor field that was never intended for a late December football game, the field will be played without a heating coil for both teams,thus making the playing conditions an actual frozen tundra. Add in ESPN trying to do as much Favre praising as they can in what should be their last time calling a game with ol'#4 on the tea and you have your self an ultimate recipe of sucking. Expect the Vikings to play this "home game" the same way that the Saints played outside the Superdome in 2005 or the Bears in Champagne back in 2002 and just hand the Bears the game.
mj50's pick: Chicago

RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Oakland over Denver
The Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson Upset of the Week: Jacksonville over Indianapolis
The "Dexter" season one vs. "Dexter" season three "I'm Not Sure" Pick: New Orleans over Baltimore

A lot of great games on tap for this week, much more than usual to be more specific. It starts with both the 49ers and the Chargers battling for their postseason hopes, and continues onto Sunday with the early afternoon games featuring Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis in what could be the deciding battle for the AFC South, Philadelphia vs. the Giants in a match that could end the NFC East division race once and for all, KC vs. St. Louis in an unlikely matchup of 1st place teams and New Orleans vs. Baltimore. Then, you have the Jets vs. Pittsburgh late Sunday afternoon, and Green Bay vs. New England to wrap up the night. On behalf of everyone here on the mj15 Blog (which is just me, in case you haven't figured it out), I wish you the best of times watching the games this upcoming weekend. See you next week with my week 16 picks, everybody!

Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15




If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.