Expect Academy Award winning director Martin Scorsese to win his first Emmy for last year's "Boardwalk Empire" pilot.
So, it has come to this: the final installment of my really early predictions for the upcoming 2011 Emmy awards (or as I like to call it: the Creative Emmys edition of the picks). There's around 15 or so categories left to be tackled, and with the weather conditions where I'm currently living in (and almost everywhere except the Pacific Northwest, where temperatures have reached 80 or higher once) a mix of hot, humid and moist, there's no better time to be near a labtop and wrapping up one of my favorite yearly columns. In case you missed any of the two previous predictions columns, feel free to view them by clicking here, and here. Otherwise, let's cut the chit-chat, wrap this thing up and continue to treat the Emmys as something of uber-importance. Here we go!
OUTSTANDING COMMERCIAL
Will and Should Win: Chrysler 200, "Born of Fire"
Out of all the commercials which made their television debut during the airing of Super Bowl XLV, not many did match the level of quality that this commercial aired. Almost everything about it I liked: the captivating narration, the gritty and intense images of Detroit from its major building to the outdoor art, the guitar riff with Eminem's "Lose Yourself" playing in the background, etc. The one thing I ddn't like? Eminem's appearance, mostly because I don't believe that he would ever drive such a car like the Chrysler 200. Nonetheless, it's a nice love letter of an ad to the city where Chrysler is centered in, and the ad does (kind of) make you want to buy a Chrysler and (even more improbably) like the city, and that is what's the most important in this case.
Other Thoughts: Overall, out of the six nominees, the Chrysler ad, the McDonald's ad and the American Express ad with Conan O'Brien were the ones that I enjoyed watching the most. Speaking of the Conan O'Brien ad for American Express, I think that this will be the likelier one to challenge the Chrysler ad for the award simply because it was both enjoyable and funny. I could also see the Old Spice ad winning it, since it does have Isaiah Mustafa (who helped Old Spice win this award last year), but I don't think that the Emmy voters vote for ads that can technically be classified as a sequel. Also, since mentioning snubs is one of the favorite pastimes of people discussing major awards, I'm surprised that the Volkswagen ad with the little kid dressed up as Darth Vader didn't get nominated. After it was a hit during the Super Bowl and adored by almost everyone this past winter, I'm surprised that the Emmy voters didn't share the love as well. Was it even in the nominations ballot?
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Matt Hubbar, "30 Rock": "Reaganing"
In retrospect, the fifth season of "30 Rock" was a nice resurrection year in quality compared to the previous two seasons (which were average at best), and this episode was one of the best examples why. It was sharp, funny and consistent, with not a single bad plot in the episode, from Liz discussing her sexual intimacy problems with Jack to Tracy Jordan's troubles shooting a Boys & Girls Club ad and the Kenneth and Jenna cake C-story, bringing the whole episode down. Also, it's kind of hard to imagine this show go without a single award two years in a row, and I feel that this episode was just good enough to finally break the show's losing streak of sorts.
Should Win: Greg Daniels, "The Office": "Good-Bye Michael"
What a terrific episode this was for the show! While you could say that this season was one of its weaker ones (and you would be right for the most part), this episode was simply not one of the reasons why. It made you laugh, it made you cry, and it made you feel nostalgic, and it made you feel a handful of other emotions. It was also a great sendoff to the show's Steve Carell era and easily one of the show's finer episodes since the Jim and Pam wedding episode from a year and a half ago. Because of this, Daniels (who has won an Emmy for his work on "The Office" before in the 2006 episode "Gay Witch Hunt") will certainly be the writer that I am rooting for to win.
Other Thoughts: Since a show hasn't gone the past three years winning an Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy without also winning this writing category, I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve Levitan and Jeffrey Richman win this award for their co-written episode "Caught in the Act," even though it wasn't one of the second season's best overall.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men": "The Suitcase"
I've said it before dozens of times on this blog and I shall say it again: "The Suitcase" was one of the best, most riveting episodes in the show's four season run and in all of television during the 2010-2011 season for two reasons: the incredible "holy crap, they can act!" performances from Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss (both of whom I already praised in part one of the Emmy predictions list) and the wonderful script from Matt Weiner. With that in mind, why shouldn't this man (who has already won three straight Emmys in this category) get an award for that achievement in television drama.
Other Thoughts: Not a bad list of nominees, in my opinion. The penultimate episode of this season on "Mad Men" was also one of the show's finer achievements, so congrats to Andre and Maria Jacquemetton for that nomination, while David Benioff and D.B. Weiss did an exceptional job with the "Game of Thrones" episode "Baelor," the best one of its freshman season. Hell, even Veena Suds kind of deserved it for her job writing the pilot episode of "The Killing," since that was the series' highpoint thus far. I am a bit surprised that not a single writer from "Boardwalk Empire" was nominated this year. With all the love that the show has been getting in this awards show (18 nominations), I'm surprised that none of them at least went into that terrific pilot episode.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will and Should Win: Justin Timberlake as a host of "Saturday Night Live"
Well, he did do a great job hosting in what was by far the best episode of "Saturday Night Live" this season (though to be fair, with such a bad season of SNL as this one has been, that's like naming somebody the tallest midget in the room), and we did see him win an Emmy for his last SNL hosting gig in 2009, so...
Other Thoughts: I find it kind of funny that after being one of the best actors on "The Wire" for a good period of three seasons and not receiving one single Emmy nomination for them, that Idris Elba would be nominated twice for his acting this year (one for his work on "Luther" and one for his work on "The Big C").
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Michael J. Fox as Louis Canning on "The Good Wife"
Winner of five Emmy awards already including a 1986-88 three-peat for his work on "Family Ties" (something that no one else has done since in the category of Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series) and one guest acting award a mere two years ago for his role in "Rescue Me," Fox has never been a man who the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences ever shied away their love and appreciation of. And in what is a relatively weak category this year, expect one of the most beloved actors in American TV history to win another golden winged statuette for his acting this coming September.
Other Thoughts: None.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will and Should Win: Gwyneth Paltrow as Holly Holliday on "Glee"
Movie star who previously won multiple prestigious awards? Check. Guest appearances on a show that has already given multiple actors awards? Check. Acting that was well-recepted by critics and many fans of the show? Check. In other words, it appears that a Paltrow victory at the Emmys looks like a shoe-in at this point.
Other Thoughts: At this point, it looks like a three woman race between Paltrow, Cloris Leachman and Tina Fey, with the other three nominees just lucky to be invited to the ceremonies.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Julia Stiles as Lumen Pierce on "Dexter"
One of the things that I enjoyed the most in this overall mediocre season of "Dexter" was Stiles, who I enjoyed very much as the rape victim turned Dexter Morgan's murderous partner-in-crime on. Her portrayal of the vendetta and the internal pain inside the mind of this woman was outstanding, and a continuation of the list of guest acting performance that this show has had before (most notably last year with John Lithgow, who by the way did pick up a guest acting Emmy of his own by the way).
Should Win: Randee Heller as Ms. Blankenship on "Mad Men"
Come on, ATAS! How can you possibly not vote for this woman? After all, she did play a character who was born in a barn in 1898 and died on the 37th floor of a skyscraper. She was an astronaut for crying out loud!
/Just had to get that out of the way
//One of my favorite quotes in the show's history
Other Thoughts: All right, I'll admit it: out of the six nominated in this category, only Buono, Heller and Stiles have I seen in action, so pardon me if I failed to mention an actress that was absolutely great in this category. However, considering how good Stiles was this year I fail to see an actress on the list that could defeat her.
OUTSTANDING VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Will Win: Christopher Plummer as the narrator of "Moguls and Movie Stars: Legends of Hollywood"
Because no one dares defy the soothing and charismatic voice of one of the film industry's most respected actors!
Should Win: Dan Castallaneta as Homer Simpson, Krusty the Clown, Barney Gumbel and Louie on "The Simpsons"
I don't care how many times he has won this category in the past! This man still doesn't get enough credit for providing one of the best range of voices in all of television!
Other Thoughts: This is one of the greatest categories ever! Only in this list of nominees can you have Christopher Plummer paired up with Seth Green and the guy who does the voice of Porky Pig on "The Looney Tunes Show."
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Michael Alan Spiller, "Modern Family": "Halloween"
With show getting 60% of nominees in this category, the question isn't whether if they will win this award but rather which of those nominees will receive it (which is weird because I don't think that the show is best known for their directing). The reason why I think that Spiller will come out on top over Steve Levitan ("See You Next Fall") and Gail Mancuso ("Slow Down Your Neighbors") is because this episode was more gimmicky and more entertaining, with costumes and decorations (of the Dunphy household) that was well done. Oh, and it was also one of show's better moments (one of the handful episodes this season that I mentioned in part one would give the Emmy voters justification for awarding them with an Outstanding Comedy Series repeat), although I'm not sure if Spiller should be given the most credit for that.
Should Win: Beth McCarthy-Miller, "30 Rock": "Live Show"
The episode was a gimmick plain and simple: watch an episode of this beloved show done live and in the same stage where they air episodes of "Saturday Night Live." And the result? A flawlessly executed half hour of episode without any major slip-ups. Sure, the audience did get a bit raunchy during the East Coast broadcast, but that only affected the episode slightly. With that in mind, I think McCarthy-Miller should be awarded for being the one in charge of the entire process.
Other Thoughts: None.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Martin Scorsese, "Boardwalk Empire": "Boardwalk Empire (Pilot)"
Last time I checked, none of the other nominees are world-famous, Academy Award winning directors like Mr. Scorsese. Unless hell freezes over, there is nothing stopping the acclaimed director for getting honored for his work directing this great pilot episode.
Other Thoughts: Speaking of great pilot episodes, I'm a bit surprised to see Frank Darabont not receiving a single nomination for his work as director of the pilot episode for "The Walking Dead." I thought that it was just as cinematic and filled with as many beautiful-to-watch imagery as the Scorsese episode of "Boardwalk Empire," and it was really the only time that you could point towards the first season of the show and it was just as brilliant as "Mad Men," "Justified," "Boardwalk Empire" or any of the other great dramas on TV before they followed up the pilot with some pretty dreadful episodes.
OUTSTANDING NONFICTION SERIES:
Will Win: "American Masters"
With not a single Ken Burns documentary, compelling History Channel specials or pretty-to-look-at animal programs from the makers of "Planet Earth" nominated, expect this veteran PBS program (who has already won this category five times since 2000) to come out on top once again.
Should Win: "30 for 30"
While this outstanding ESPN documentary series aired some of its weakest episodes during the 2010-2011 TV season, including the dull "Unmatched," the awful "Marion Jones: Press Pause" and the pointless "Four Days in October," it also aired some of its best. Brett Morgen's "June 17, 1994" was a true achievement in narration-less storytelling while "The Two Escobars" was one of the best sports documentaries that I ever saw, just to name a few. It was an entertaining series of stories that was told, and I hope that it finally gets the Emmy recognition that it deserves after being shunned from a single nomination last year.
Other Thoughts: None.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
Will and Should Win: "The Colbert Report"- Barry Julien, Stephen Colbert, Tom Purcell, Richard Dahm, Michael Brumm, Rob Dubbin, Opus Moreschi, Peter Gwinn, Jay Katsir, Frank Lesser, Glenn Eichler, Meredith Scardino, Max Werner, Eric Drysdale, Scott Sherman, Dan Guterman, Paul Dinello
I think this will be a repeat of years past, with "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" winning Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series and "The Colbert Report" taking the writing category for this genre.
Other Thoughts: None.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SPECIAL
Will and Should Win: Louis C.K., "Hilarious"
Umm, because it was sharp and just as the title says it was? Why else?
Other Thoughts:
a. What an outstanding year it is Emmys-wise for comedian Louis C.K. Not only is he nominated for his acting on "Louie" and in this category, but also for his writing in the "Louie" episode "Poker/Divorce" and his editing for this very stand-up special. Overall, I guess it must feel good to be the reigning king of comedy.
b. Expect either C.K. or the trio that wrote this year's Tony Awards to come out as the victors. The rest of the nominees are just happy to be nominated.
OUTSTANDING MAIN TITLE DESIGN
Will Win: "Game of Thrones"- Angus Wall, Robert Feng, Kirk H. Shintani, Hameed Shaukat
Just a simply fantastic title sequence that introduces the show each week like the opening map in the beginning of the "Lord of the Rings" books, with a quick look around all of the major kingdoms of Westeros that will have a major purpose in the upcoming episode's plot. Also, unlike fellow HBO show "Boardwalk Empire," this title sequence had a theme song that actually matched the era that this show was set in. Nothing to hate about it at all.
Should Win: "Rubicon"- Karin Fong, Michelle Dougherty, Lauren Hartstone, Cara McKenney
Because this show was really good in its short period of time, and I at least want people to forever call them "Emmy award winning," even if they were just nominated for this award.
Other Thoughts: Feels good to be Cara McKenney and Karin Fong, who were nominated in this category for two different title sequences (one for "Rubicon," one for "Boardwalk Empire.")
Well, there you have it: 35 predictions for 35 different categories in this year's Emmy awards (the most I've ever done in my three years here on this blog). I hope you enjoyed my analysis and insight into each and every one of them, even though I will admit I didn't have a single clue of who to pick for a few of them. Last year I finished 17-12 in my predictions, a major fall from the year before when I went 18-5, and I am looking forward to seeing how right, or how wrong, I was this coming September. Also, in case you were wondering: yes, there will be another live blog this year. Wouldn't be right if I didn't do one. And now, let's end this post the right way with another brand new edition of Random Thoughts, shall we?
The following were on my mind between Monday, July 18th and Monday, July 25th:
RANDOM THOUGHTS:
- If narrow-minded conservatives can brag about this past winter's massive blizzards as signs that global warming didn't exist, then Al Gore has the right to brag himself about last week's massive nationwide heat waves.
- I have no idea what Direct TV is trying to tell me with their most recent ad campaign. Buy Direct TV and you will be exactly like that small Asian with a large panda as his couch, or a successful boxer who has everyone around him proclaiming everything he says with the same word as his nickname? I don't get it.
- The 24/7 news channels (CNN, FOX News, MSNBC) should be ashamed of themselves for their coverage of this past Friday's shootings in Norway. At least 90 people were murdered, and yet you wouldn't have known it had you been watching those channels. They would have rather talked about the debt ceiling battle for the billionth time or give an interview to an author of some self-help book.
- Michael K. Williams signing up for a guest role on "Community" as the new biology professor is such a great casting move. Not only does it add an element of one of the past decade's best dramas ("The Wire") to one of the decade's best comedies, but it also gives the show some additional buzz that they normally wouldn't have otherwise received. Who knows, maybe this move would have solidified the show's strong chance for a fourth season. Plus, now it gives the show an excuse to either have a paintball episode with Williams using a paintball shotgun or a themed episode based on "The Wire," either one of which I (and I'm sure many of the show's fans) would be happy to see (if it's well-done, that is).
- For next year's Comic-Con, organizers should consider adding larger convention rooms to certain TV shows like "Game of Thrones," "Chuck," "Doctor Who" and any other TV show with a large cult following. From what I've read, the lines to see some of those show panels were insane, and much too large to justify the relatively small rooms they were placed in.
- Why do primetime game shows these days need to have contestants that are out there for some major reason like "my mother has breast cancer" or "I'm in crippling debt"? Can't game show contestants get on the show just because they like money and want to win it?
- 1903: Man flies for the first time ever.
1919: Man makes his first transcontinental flight ever.
1961: Man orbits space for the first time ever.
1969: Man lands on the moon.
1970-Now: .
(sighs)
Well, that's gonna do it for this post. See you when I see you!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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