Friday, January 7, 2011

2010 NFL (Postseason) Predictions: Wild Card Round- Yes, We Are Talking About Playoffs


(Couldn't help myself.)


THE PLAYOFFS ARE BACK! OH, THANK HEAVENS, THE PLAYOFFS ARE BACK! Twelve teams, eleven games, four weeks (five if you include Pro Bowl week), one champion, countless possibilities and memories. How could it possibly get any better?

So, let's start this first playoff post of the season right with nothing but picks, shall we? As with every wild card round, we have four game separated over a two day span, each with its share of interesting storylines. Will the Seahawks be able to keep it close with New Orleans? Will the Jets revenge the Colts in a rematch of last year's AFC championship game? Will KC continue to surprise us vs. playoff veteran Baltimore? How much will Vick be a factor vs. Green Bay?

One thing that isn't a mystery at this point is who, among mj50 and myself, is going to end this season with the better record. With seven weeks in the books and only eleven games left in total, I currently lead mj50 169 wins to 150 wins, meaning that I have officially clinched the season title for the second year in a row (and, in a more dominating fashion this time). However, since I am in a good sport and because it has been a weekly tradition, I have decided to bring him back for the postseason. So, without further ado, here are our NFL game picks for this, wild card week of the 2010 NFL playoffs.

Let's begin (Note: all games are based on the Central time zone):

New Orleans Saints (-10.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Saturday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
First of all, let me being this playoff related post by saying that the NFL's current playoff system is just fine as it is. Sure, a 7-9 team got into the playoffs while two ten win teams didn't, so what. Plenty of teams over the years have won ten games and haven't made it to the playoffs (the '08 Patriots, the '03 Dolphins, etc.). Besides, what would you rather replace it with? A BCS-like system (under .500 teams will never play in the championship game!)? A system like the MLS where the eight best teams go in regardless of region (resulting in a situation where a team like the San Jose Earthquake compete in the Eastern Conference Championship)? So, sorry if a 7-9 team like the Seahawks went into the postseason. At least you get to watch them get crushed in the playoffs as a reward.

Anyways, like I said earlier, this game is the Saints to lose, and everyone, even the Seattle Seahawks, know this. Sure, the Seahawks have Qwest Field, a stdium where the fans can shout at people really, really loud. And, sure, there is a possibility that this team can surprise us like the 2008 Cardinals did and go deep into the postseason. Of course, that would require them to have a future Hall of Fame QB and a really good wide receiver that can put up historic statistics in the postseason, which they have neither. But, hey, all twelve teams enter the postseason undefeated and with a chance, even if they just got in their because every division needs one representative (under .500 or not).

Still, I do not see them beating the defending champs/experienced New Orleans Saints in this one. Not only did the Saints crush the Seahawks earlier this season 34-19 (with Drew Brees throwing for over 380 yards in that one), but they also crushed the same Rams team that the Seahawks needed to beat last week to get into the postseason (31-13). The Saints also have hte better QB (obviously), the better receiving corps, better coach, better intangibles...better everything else, really (except for maybe special teams and the running game with the Saints starting Chris Ivory and Julius Jones). In other words, the Saints are Goliath, the Seahawks are David. However, unlike the Bible, I don't see a happy ending for this David.
mj50's pick: Seattle
(UPDATE 01/08: Well, they have done it! The Seahawks have shocked the world, defeating the defending Super Bowl champions 41-36, making the regular season pointless when it comes to the playoffs. This is going to be a very strange postseason.)

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3): Saturday- 7:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
Because, at the cliched end of the day, I just do not trust Mark Sanchez to step up in such a crucial playoff game as this one, especially when he has one of the greatest QBs in league history as their opponent. Speaking of Manning, the man is also 5-1 lifetime against a Rex Ryan defense, with the only loss coming in week 16 last year when the Colts purposely lost by resting their starters mid-game. Also, yes, the Jets may have a good defense, and, yes, they may have the better running game. But the Jets defense have been vulnerable at times this season against great passing offenses like in week 11 vs. Houston, week 15 vs. Pittsburgh, and (more famously) week 13 vs. New England. As for the running game, the Colts have been known to stepping up in the rushing category before (see their 2006 championship season when the team was also the #3 seed and had one of the league's worst regular season defenses) and LaDainian Tomlinson has only given me one opportunity to play the Electric Glide in the last nine weeks. Now, how much I have confidence in this pick? That's a whole 'nother story.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis

HALFTIME!
The eight season of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" premieres sometime this year (most likely in the fall). Here are some stand-up clips of Larry David from the original "Curb Your Enthusiasm" episode, which was a one-hour documentary-like special back in '99. Ten years later, and the man still hasn't lost his comedic charms. Enjoy.



Baltimore Ravens
(-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Because this is the Kansas City Chiefs we're talking about! The same Kansas City Chiefs that for years have been that one team every season that ends up playing well in the regular season (going beyond everyone's expectations) and then finally play like the team that they should of been come playoff time. See 2003 and 2006 for two such examples with this Sunday as another example (even if they do have the RB that was .02 inches from tying Jim Brown's record for best YPG in a season). Meanwhile, Baltimore has won a wild card playoff game in the previous two seasons (both of them also on the road) with virtually the same teammates that you see play right now, expect with a big improvement in the wide receiver position and no Bart Scott or Derrick Mason.

Speaking of experience, Joe Flacco will be playing his sixth postseason game Sunday in whatis only his third season in the league, and in all of them he has been awful. Yet, it is that very experience that is the reason why I would take him as my QB in this game than Matt Cassel, who has played in none (unless you cuont the time he was Tom Brady's backup, which makes no sense). Finally, you can't help but worry about the Chiefs' chances now that Charlie Weis has left to be the Florida offensive coordinator, and what distractions it would bring. So, there you go.

mj50's pick: Kansas City

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
(-2.5): Sunday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
In week 1 when the Packers defeated the Eagles 27-20, Kevin Kolb received a concussion from a Packers defensemen that would get him knocked out the game, putting Michael Vick in as the man in center. Vick showed some impressive play, and he followed that up with two even more impressive performances against Detroit and Jacksonville respectively in weeks 2 and 3, making him Philly's new starting QB and the team along with its fans not looking back since then. Expect Vick to show his "gratitude" towards the team for giving him his second chance with another stellar performance.

But that's not the only reason why I like the Eagles to win this game (if you can call that a reason). Green Bay, while allowing only 15 points per game this season and having one of the league's best passing defenses, are experiencing some troubles stopping the run. This season, they are allowing 4.7 yards per carry rushing, one of the most generous in the league. I see them having troubles once again with the combo of Vick and LeSean McCoy running the football the entire game. Green Bay has also struggled against other playoff teams this season (losing to New England, Chicago, and Atlanta). So, in conclusion, even though I picked Green Bay as my NFC representative in the Super Bowl back in my week 1 column, I still see the team with the league's most exciting player at the moment finishing it as the victors.
mj50's pick: Green Bay

So, there you have it, all of my picks for this week. Now, since I have plenty of room left in this weekly column with only four games this week (and not the usual sixteen), here are some NFL related random thoughts, just because:

- The really loud sound that you heard coming from the east coast? That was just the harmonized groan of Panthers fans when they heard that Andrew Luck was staying in college this year, despite the fact that he will be playing without coach Jim Harbaugh. Speaking of the Panthers, what are they going to do in the QB position now that Luck is staying? Are they going to go after someone like a Vince Young, a Michael Vick or a Donovan McNabb? Are they going to stay with the guys that they have? Are they still going to choose a QB with their #1 pick (like a Jake Locker)? Either way, it seems that Jake Delholmme comes out of all this the big winner.

- I wonder how much FOX had to beg NBC to take the Jets/Colts game for their primetime slot instead of Packers/Eagles...

- I'm not really surprised that Titans owner Bud Adams decided to let go of Vince Young. Everyone knew as the season was winding down that he would have to choose between Young and Fisher after having some more arguments this season. However, I was surprised that Adams chose Fisher and not Young. I thought that Bud Adams really had a thing for his 2005 first round pick. By the way, now that Young is released it means that neither him nor 2006 Rose Bowl opponent Matt Leinart have a starting job at the moment. I will admit, this is something that I did not expect five years ago,

- What does Gary Kubiak have on the Texans organization? Another year in which the Texans go under .500, another year in which he stays as the team's head coach. And now the Texans hired Wade Phillips as the team's defensive coordinator, as if their passing defense couldn't have possibly gone any worse! Matt Schaub better be prepared to lead his offense to 35 point every game next year if the Texans want to at least get a wild card spot.

- I hate the first Saturday football game because its the game every year where the network showing the game brings in the worst possible announcers to do it. In the ABC days earlier this decade, it was tragic trio of Mike Patrick, Joe Theismann and Paul Macguire. Last year, NBC managed to outdo that trio by adding Theismann and Joe Gibbs with Tom Hammond. This year, NBC has decided to put Mike Mayock with Hammond. A slight improvement, but it would have been much better if NBC would have simply hired Bob Papa for this one time.

- In case you have forgotten, this Saturday's game mark the first time that the new NFL overtime rules will be implemented. This new overtime rule was passed in the off-season after the media was angry that their precious Brett Favre wasn't able to have a possession in overtime of the NFC championship game. And its a new overtime rule that actually sounds even worse than the old overtime rules. The breakdown goes like this:
a. If the team that wins the coin toss scores a touchdown wins the game.
b. HOWEVAH, if the team that wins the coin toss scores a field goal, then the other team will get a possession, and could score a TD to win.
c. If both teams kick a field goal in their first OT possession, then the game will go back to its typical sudden-death format.
d. If a defense scores a TD, the game is over.

This new overtime format ticks me off for many reasons, and its not just because its basically the same overtime, only more complicated. For starters, a team that loses the coin toss can take an onside kick and recover, giving them the ball and a game to score and win because the coin toss winning team will have technically lost. Second, the games could still end with a game winning field goal, something that was the big deal with the previous overtime format. Third, it just weakens the life and death thrill and intensity of sudden death OT. So, if a team scores a field goal on the first possession, it wouldn't mean as much as it had before.

Fourth, it sets a whole new slate of challenges and strategies that coaches have to deal. For example, what does a coach do if its, say, 4th and 2 and inside the opponent's 20 yard line? Do they go for the field goal, and trust their defense, or do they go for it so they can win the game right then and there? Do you kick an onside kick on the opening kickoff? And why is it only in the playoffs, and not throughout the season, so players could get adjusted to it overtime? Personally, I would have been just fine if they had simply implemented the college OT format, an OT when both teams could only score TDs, or had just kept everything the same. Instead, it seems that the NFL created an imperfect fix to an imperfect system, and something that I think will create some more promises come playoff time.

-Throughout the playoffs, I'm going to dedicate the end of each one of my columns to pick what I think were the ten greatest games to take place during a certain round of the postseason. To start, here is my vote for the ten best NFL wild card games of all time:
10. (tie) 2004: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers (20-17 OT)
10. (tie) 2006: Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (20-21)
With the game an extra point away from getting tied at 21 with 1:11 to play in the fourth, Tony Romo (in his last game ever as a holder) has his infamous botched snap, one that slips away from his hands. The Cowboys would lose by one, and wouldn't win another playoff game until 2010.
9. 2008: Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers (17-23 OT)
In arguably the most exciting game ever played in the thrilling Colts-Chargers rivalry of the past four seasons, Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding kicks a game tying field to take this matchup into overtime. Chargers RB Darren Sproles had over 300 all-purpose yards in that game, none more important then the game winning 22 yard TD that he had to give San Diego the 23-17 victory.
8. 2002: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (36-33)
Also known as the final game where you would actually consider Tommy Maddox to be a hero in Pittsburgh.
7. 2007: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (31-29)
The Steelers were on the verge of having a comeback similar to my #8 pick, down 28-10 in the third quarter and going on a 19-0 run in the second half to take a 29-28 lead. But then, with 1:58 to play in the third, Jags QB David Garrard converts a 32 yards run on 4th and 2, leading to a Josh Scobee game winning field goal, and a spot in the divisional playoffs for Jacksonville.
6. 2003: Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (27-33 OT)
Matt Hasselbeck once the Seahawks won the coin toss: "We're going to take the ball and we're going to score!" Bold words, ironic outcome as Hasselbeck would throw a game-losing INT to Al Harris in a few plays.
5. 2002: New York Giants vs. San Fransisco 49ers (38-39)
Down 38-14 in the third quarter, the 49ers end up going on an improbable 25 point run (largely thanks to QB Jeff Garcia's 3 TD passes) to lead the game 39-38 late. Despite all that, Kerry Collins (then Giants QB) was able to lead New York all the way to San Fransisco's 26, which allowed the kicking team to line-up for a game winning 41 yard field goal. The snap ended up being botched, leading to a miraculous 49ers win that is still part of San Fransisco sports folklore.
4. 1999: Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans (16-22)
Nearly six years after Tennessee (then the Houston Oilers) were eliminated from the '93 playoffs thanks to Buffalo creating the greatest comeback in NFL history, the Titans got revenge in a very sweet way. Tied 16 apiece and the game waiting to head to overtime, they score a kick return TD on the final play of regulation (thanks, in part, to the most controversial lateral in NFL history) to win against Buffalo in stunning fashion.
3. 1998: Green Bay Packers vs. San Fransisco 49ers (27-30)
This game was a fantastical back-and-forth contest with Brett Favre of the Packers dueling it with Steve Young of the 49ers. However, with the Packers leading 27-23 with less than two minutes to play, it appeared that it would be Favre who would come out of it as the victor. But then, with 8 seconds to go in the game and the 49ers with the ball at Green Bay's 25 yard line, Young connects to then rookie Terrell Owens for a TD in what would forever be known as "The Catch II, and San Fransisco goes onto win another wild card game in which they probably should have lost.
2. 2009: Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (46-52 OT)
Since this happened only twelve months ago, I don't need to tell you about what happened. But for those of you reading this in 2025, here's the summary anyway. In a game that could fill an entire edition of SportsCenter if they chose to, the offenses of the Packers (led by QB Aaron Rodgers) and the Cardinals (led by Hall of Famer QB Kurt Warner) put up a combined 92 points and over 900 yards in regulation to take this game into overtime, tied at 46. But then, in the second minute of overtime, Rodgers manages to lose the ball, which led to a game winning defensive TD by Karlos Dansby on the same play. It was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history and also the most ironic, with Packers CB Charles Woodson winning the year's defensive MVP award in the same season yet doing nothing to stop the high-scoring outcome, and the game ending on a defensive play.
1. 1993: Houston Oilers vs. Buffalo Bills (38-41 OT)
There have been plenty of comebacks in NFL history, but only one of those were so great and so miraculous that it was actually nicknamed "The Comeback." Down 35-3 at halftime, the Bills (led by backup QB Frank Reich, who was playing for the injured Jim Kelly) manage to go on a 35-3 rally of their own in the second half, and then eventually winning the game 41-38 in overtime off a game winning field goal by Steve Christie.


And there you have it! Be sure to come back same time next week for my divisional round picks, along with the results of my wild card picks. Until then, enjoy the first round of the playoffs, everybody!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15




If you have any opinion on today's post, or if you just have some tips or suggestions for my next blog entry, feel free to e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.

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