Only one day left!In just over 24 hours, both the NFC Champion New York Giants and the AFC Champion New England Patriots will gather together at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to clash for at least sixty minutes for the right to be officially declared champions of Super Bowl XLVI. As you might have heard hundreds of times in the past few weeks, this is a matchup of when these two teams clashed four years ago in one of the most monumental games in NFL history, Super Bowl XLII, in which the Giants upseted the Patriots in the final minutes to stop New England from achieving the first 19-0 perfect record in NFL history. For the Giants, this is their chance to reclaim that glory they had four years ago and to win their second championship in five seasons. For the Patriots, it's their chance to claim their fourth title in just over a decade, officially making them one of the five most successful franchises in the Super Bowl era.
In essence, Sunday's game is going to be a big one, and a big game of its caliber deserved a special treatment from this column, of which it is the season finale. So, before I deliver my pick, here is a breakdown of 13 areas of the game directly related to each team, and why one team has the edge over the other in each category. Spoiler alert: no team is better in every single category.
SUPER BOWL XLVI:
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (-2.5):
Sunday- 5:29 p.m./CT (at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN)
The breakdown:
Quarterback (Overall): The funny thing about this long period between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl is that there's so little new stories to write about and so much time between the two that it gives writers and pundits a chance to spark debates that really shouldn't happen. Case in point, the debate of Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady. First the question was "Should Eli belong in the same class of quarterbacks as Brady?" Then just as the Super Bowl coverage began, the same question morphed into "Is Eli just as good as Brady?" And now that question has suddenly morphed into "Is Eli better than Brady?," a question which some have actually said "yes" to.
Now, don't get me wrong. I think that Eli Manning has made quite the case to everybody this season (his best one yet) as to why he should be considered in the top tier of NFL quarterback, along with Brees, Brady, Rodgers, his older brother, Rivers, and probably Roethlisberger. Plus, he actually does own a Super Bowl ring already, something that only six other QBs in the league can say (five of whom I already mentioned), and he has been quite the leader of his offense and of his team. But when it comes to which quarterback has the better overall resume and which quarterback I would like to have for Sunday's game, it would have to be Brady. Three time Super Bowl champ in four appearances, two time MVP, holds the record for most TD passes in a single season, and he just finished a regular season in which he threw for an incredible 5,235 yards. And, no, I don't care if Eli is facing the weaker secondary tomorrow night. Not one bit.
EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Quarterback (Crunch Time Situation): Both have proven multiple times in their career that they can lead their team to a necessary score in the final moments of the game, and both arguably belong in the list of the league's three best clutch quarterbacks. Statistically speaking, though, Eli Manning has had more comeback wins this year with six, and just two weeks ago he led the Giants to a close win in overtime over the 49ers. Also, he has been a monster in the 4th quarter this season, averaging a passer ratings of 111.8 and throwing for 1,936 yards and 18 touchdowns, statistics slightly better than Brady (103 passer rating, 1,285 yards and 11 TDs). So, just for that, I have Eli slightly over Brady heading into this game.
SLIGHT EDGE: NEW YORK
Running Back: This was a tough one to decide, since both teams have more passer-friendly offenses and have had running games that aren't really that impressive. If you look at the stats this season, you would pretty surprised to see to find the New York Giants, a franchise known historically for running the football, ranked dead last in the league, and the New England Patriots, a franchise not known for a history of great running backs, at a much better ranking at #20 (in the postseason, both teams have been fairly even when it came to running the football, which the Patriots only averaging four yards more in one less game). Also, when it comes to the running back that has impressed the most this season, then the Patriots have that with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, probably one of most underrated aspect of New England's success. This season, the man they call Law Firm has scored more touchdowns and more yards than any other runner on the roster for both teams. I have a lot of respect for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw (who has been great in his short amount of time), but they just aren't as good of a running back tandem as they were four years ago, when they teamed up with Derrick Ward to create the memorable "Earth, Wind and Fire" trio.
SLIGHT EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Wide Receivers: No question, the Giants have the better set of receivers heading into this game. Victor Cruz leads the way for the Giants, who in just his first full season with the Giants has set the franchise mark for receiving yards in a season (not bad for an undrafted free agent from UMass). They also have Hakeem Nicks, who has an equally impressive 1,192 receiving yards, and Mario Manningham, a terrific young player who could make a big impact in this game if the Patriots put their attention too much on stopping Cruz and Nicks. Outside of Wes Welker, who had over 1,500 receiving yards this season, the best receiver that the Patriots have is Deion Branch with 702 yards, followed by Chad Ochocinco with a measly 276 yards, who might not play in this game because he's been pretty terrible throughout the season.
EDGE: NEW YORK
Tight End: So if only Wes Welker was the only Patriots wide receiver that caught more than 51 passes this season, then how was it possible that Tom Brady was able to throw for the second most passing yards in a single season in NFL history this year? Simple: the Patriots have two really good tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Together, the tight end duo have combined this season for 169 catches, 2,237 yards and 24 TD passes (that's more than what more teams get out of all of their receivers combined). Gronkowski alone set the NFL record in most TD catches and yards by a tight end in a single season, and this is only his second season in the league. A lot of this can be attributed of each of these men's skills. Gronkowski is a tough man to stop when he's charging down in the middle of the field , with a 6'6'' height, a weight of 265 and the speed of Kellen Winslow in his prime. Not to be outdone, Hernandez is 6'2'', 245 yards and can often be used well as a very effective running option (in this postseason alone, he has averaged nearly 9 yards per carry). No offense to Jake Ballard, but he doesn't come nearly as close as any of these two men in both talent and reliability.
EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Offensive Line: Well, the Patriots offensive line has done a better job this season in stopping defenses from sacking Brady than the Giants O-line in stopping Eli, and as mentioned they've allowed their running backs to rush the football more than New York. Overall, it's an offensive line filled with reliable veterans, from Matt Light (still one of the few remaining members of that early 2000s Patriots dynasty) to Logan Mankins. It's an offensive line that has an impressive 13 Pro Bowl appearances, and one of the few you can absolutely trust to give their quarterback plenty of time to throw the football. Finally, last time I check, there is no question mark on the team's O-line similar to the one that the Giants have in guard David Diehl, who gave up more QB pressures per snap than any other player in his position. So, yes, I have New England over the Giants in this matchup.
EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Defense (Front Seven): A pretty easy category to decide, if you ask me. All throughout this two week period before the Super Bowl, people have talked about the Giants, specifically their defensive line, as a key factor heading into this game, and with good reason. Led by a fantastic trio of Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Osi Umenyiora, New York has led the league this season in sacks and have constantly been one of the top performing members of the Giants defense. Also, the Giants defensive line that you will see tomorrow is not that far removed from the one that sacked Tom Brady five times back in Super Bowl XLII, so expect them to have as big of a nuisance for the Patriots O-line, if not greater.
EDGE: NEW YORK
Defense (Secondary): All throughout these past two weeks, another storyline has been the Patriots' second to last defense, and whether or not they will struggle stopping Eli Manning, and with good reason. This is a secondary that has been the weakest link of their team, and they certainly didn't look impressive against Baltimore two weeks ago, allowing Joe Flacco to throw for more yards than Brady and almost costing their team the game. Thankfully, the Ravens had Lee Evans, who dropped what could've been the game winning touchdown in the game's final seconds, but that still doesn't excuse them for yet another sub-par performance. And yet what's interesting is that nobody seems to talk about the Giants secondary and how bad they've played this season. Not only were they just two spots above the Patriots this season with their #29 ranking, but they've actually given up more yards in the postseason and they've had fewer interception. New England, however, was second in the league this season with a whopping 23 interceptions.
So go ahead and knock the Patriots defense. I wouldn't blame you for doing so. But based on the stats, I honestly cannot say that I would rather have the Giants secondary instead of them. In fact, I would not want to have any of these secondaries on my favorite team, so I'm not going to give the edge to any of them.
EDGE: TIE
Kicker: Since this game might very well go down to a last second field goal, it's important to look at which of these teams have the kicker that you would most like to have in the final seconds of a game. Statistically speaking, Gostkowski has the edge over Tynes both in this season (84.8% field goal pct. to 79.2%) and throughout both of their careers (a 4% better field goal pct.). Then again, Tynes has scored more points in his career than Gostkowski (782) and he's kicked two of the biggest field goals that any of them ever attempted up until this point: the field goals to win both the 2007 and 2011 NFC Championship games (both in overtime, no less). So, I've decided that the most reasonable thing to do would be to give this category a tie, say that both are kickers equally reliable in key stretches of the football game, and move on.
EDGE: TIE
Head Coach: No offense to Tom Coughlin, who is also a Super Bowl winning head coach and has defeated his New England counterpart twice since 2008, but how can you possibly not select Bill Belichick over him? The man is simply one of the greatest coaches who has ever step foot in the NFL, winning three Super Bowls and crafting a dynasty from players that you never would have expected to help their team win the Lombardi Trophy. And even when Tom Brady missed the entire season due to a knee injury in 2008, he still managed to lead his team that season to an 11-5 record. In a position that is constantly put under the limelight, scrutinized in bad times and often gets plenty of people fired each year, the fact that Belichick has coached on New England for 12 seasons and continues to make one postseason appearance and one Super Bowl appearance after another is pretty damn remarkable.
EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Better in Previous Matchups: Obviously, the Giants have the edge in this category. Not only did they defeat the Patriots in their last Super Bowl matchup, but they also defeated the Patriots this past November (both of them by a score of 17-14 and both thanks to comeback drives by Eli Manning). The only question remains whether the same old, same old will continue again this Sunday, or will the 3rd time be the charm for New England in their quest of defeating the Giants?
EDGE: NEW YORK
Biggest Question Mark: For the Giants, that would have to be David Diehl, who as I mentioned has not been that great in stopping QB pressure since moving to left tackle. For the Patriots, it's probably the injury that Rob Gronkowski suffered in the AFC Championship, and how that will affect his usually high level of play. Considering how Gronkowski has been one of Tom Brady's top throwing targets this year, I'd say that this concern is the one most interesting to watch and see unfold.
EDGE: NEW ENGLAND
Rooting Interest: As someone who's a fan of the NFC, largely because his favorite team (the Bears) plays in it, and as someone whose has expressed his dislike of the brash arrogance of many New England sports fans multiple times, my overall loyalty lies within the Giants.
EDGE: NEW YORK
And now, at last, here is the pick that you came here to see...
mj15's pick: New York Giants (17), New England (14)
MVP: Eli Manning
There's just too much of a 2007 vibe going into this game. After all, the Giants will be playing this game tomorrow night with the same white jerseys, the same quarterback, the same coach and with roughly the same path that brought them here (hot and cold for most of regular season, got hot late, beat an NFC South team in the Wild Card, beat the #1 seed in the Divisional Playoffs, won the NFC Championship game on the road in overtime, etc.). How can I possibly go against that? Also, I think that in the matchup between the Giants D-line and the Patriots O-line, that the Giants should have the edge and pressure Brady in a similar fashion from their last two matchups. Finally, I see Eli Manning in one of his finest hours in the stadium that his brother built, throwing the football with precision and accuracy and continuing to make a case for himself as the better of the Manning brothers when all is said and done. Yes, I know all of the reasons as to why the Patriots could very well prove me wrong and make me go 0-3 in my Super Bowl picks since I started this column back in 2009. But when it doubt, I say go with the team that's having a deja vu kind of season.
mj50's pick: New York (24), New England (20)
MVP: Eli Manning
mj15 in the postseason: 8-2
mj50 in the postseason: 5-5
mj15 this season: 186-80 (a lifetime best)
mj50 this season: 177-86 (ditto)
I'm not done yet! Here are a few final random thoughts that I felt like writing:
- Without a doubt, this game will be a close one. Not only have three out of the last five Super Bowls ended in one-possession final scores, but these two teams match up pretty evenly that it's hard to believe that it won't end in any way other than a team trying to drive the football down the field for the game winning score.
-Hope that I finally get this Super Bowl right, as the previous two have not gone well. Hopefully, the fact that I feel more confident in this pick than any of the last two is a good sign.
- ESPN, it's Super Bowl Week. Why do you still feel obligated to interview Tim Tebow after all these weeks? Is there really anything new that you feel like asking him?
- A few interviews that I didn't mind this past week were the ones given to Colts QB Peyton Manning. For starters, the Super Bowl is in Indianapolis in a stadium that wouldn't have been possible without his many successes over the years as the member of the Colts, of which he was the ambassador this week. Furthermore, outside of the big game itself, the question of Manning's future in Indianapolis was the biggest story of the week, with plenty speculating not only whether Colts owner Jim Irsay would pay Manning the $28 million salary in 2012 or possibly trade him to another team before the March deadline amidst the many potential foreshadowings in the past few weeks (the firing of Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell, Manning's Indy Star interview with Bob Kravitz, etc.), but also whether Manning might play at all this season (there were a few sources reported who claimed that maybe #18 would not play another game again, even though other sources have said that doctors cleared him to play in 2012). It's also a story that will continue to be one of the top NFL news once the offseason officially kicks off, so it might as well start now in between the game that's been previewed enough times already.
- As I finish writing this, the Pro Football Hall of Fame has officially announced their selections for the 2012 Hall of Fame Class. They are: Chris Doleman, Cortez Kennedy, Willie Roalf, Deremonti Dawson, Curtis Martin, and senior committee selection Jack Butler. Congratulations to all of them for this prestigious honor, even though I'm saddened that there are quite a bit of players that I think should've also belonged in the Hall that didn't get in ( like Jerome Bettis, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, to name a few).
- Later on tonight, the NFL will be having their first ever Honors show, which is basically the league's goal into stuffing all of the major awards announcements into one two hour period so it can be like their version of the Oscars. Without further ado, here are some of the winners that I think we will see announced:
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees
Defensive Player of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul
NFL.com Fantasy Player of the Year: Drew Brees
Comeback Player of the Year: Plaxico Burress
-Surprised that there's been very few complaints from writers about Indianapolis as a Super Bowl town, especially how many of them complained about Dallas as a site last year. I'm guessing that's what happens when you're a cold weather city that had an unexpectedly pleasant week weather wise; you just become a pleasant surprise by comparison.
And with that, it's time to wrap up what is officially my 21st and final NFL predictions column of the 2011 NFL season. We hope that you enjoyed this post, and every weekly post that I've written since week 1. Thanks to mj50 for sticking it out for a third year and being part of what has been our most competitive year yet, even though I still ended up beating him with a better overall record again, and thanks to every website that I unknowingly used in some way to help me write these columns, including FootballLocks.com with the odds to every football game. If you're interested, please be sure to stop by Monday as I will have my 3rd annual Super Bowl Recap post, in which I offer my thoughts on everything Super Bowl related, from the NBC telecast to the Madonna halftime show to, yes, the very game itself. Otherwise, enjoy Super Bowl Sunday!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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