Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5) (in Miami, Florida): Sunday- 5:25 p.m.
All right, the Super Bowl! The best Sunday to be a fan of the NFL. And quite a matchup it is. On one side, you have the AFC champion Indianapolis Colts. On the other, the NFC champion New Orleans Saints. It also marks the end of one great twelve month soap opera leading up to this moment. It began with all of the free agent signing and trades in the late winter and early spring and conitunued with the draft in April, the training camps, the regular season and, finally the championship games two weeks ago that sent both of these teams to this point.
And now, here we are: less than 48 hours away before the big game. So now, all that's left is four quarters to decide the champion of this game. Who's it going to be? Well...
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
I don't like to self promote, but I'd like to think that I'm a pretty good picker of these games. In fact, I have made only two incorrect Super Bowl picks my entire life, and that came in Super Bowls XXXVII and XLII. So in order to continue this good fortune, I decided to make a lengthy breakdown of the teams and find reasons why I like one team over the other. For that, I decided to do so by looking at some key factors, and at the end picking the one that I thought had the most factors ready to win this game.
Quarterbacks: Honestly, was else is there to say about both Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Both are two of the decade's ten best quarterbacks. Both a great leaders who arguably was the big reason why the teams made it to the game in the first place (again, rewatch the week 16 Colts game against the Jets with Curtis Painter and the Saints week 17 game against the Panthers and you will se why). Both were so great that they were inthe top of the MVP discussion from the beginning of the season. Also, thanks to their great stats, both will go down as two of the five best fantasy football QBs of the decade.
So, for me, it all boils down to this question: if your team was trailing with less than three minutes to play in the 4th quarter, who would you want to start? You have to go with Manning there. Brees has only been a star for like, six season now. Manning, on th other hand, has been one his his sophmore season in 1999, so the experience is better. Besides, 2009 Peyton Manning has been known to having some second half comebacks. In fact, this season alone he has engineered NINE of them. Nine! This version of Manning even has more confidence and a bigger sense of the feeling that you won't stop him, something that you probably wouldn't say before the 2006 AFC Championship Game. THat is to not say that Brees (as well as his terrific passing accuracy) wouldn't be a good second option.
Slight Edge: Colts
Running Backs: The Saints running back corp is so in-depth that each of them could be starters. You have Pierre Thomas as the main, do most of the work back. You have Reggie Bush, who can make all the deep and quick play. You even have Mike Bell, who is a pretty good short yardage back. They also weren't the worst rank rushing team in the league, which the Colts were this year:
Edge: Saints
Receivers: Both are both good ones that are pretty deep. The Saints have one of the league's best featuring Maques Colston as the big threat, Jeremy Shockey, the running backs that are always big threats in the open field and a whole 'nother cavalcade of stars. But the Colts still have the edge in my book. They have one of the best wide receivers in the game right now (Reggie Wayne) as the #1 receiver, one of the best tight ends in the league (Dallas Clark) as one of the best midfield threats in the league and the one that usually makes all of the catches in the pressure packed moments. Plus, if you have them covered, you all of the sudden have the newest threats, Haiti's own Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie (who both had impressive AFC Championship Game performances) open and ready to make the catch. If you're a defensive coordinator, I don't see how you can come to the game calm and prepared.
Edge: Colts
City: I've been to Indianapolis twice in my life. And, believe me, it was as dulll as it sounds. The area lookes dreary with no sign of life at all. There was nothing attractive from the city. Just for that, I'm giving it to New Orleans.
Edge: Saints
Coach: Since introducing himself as the head coach of the Saints in 2006, Sean Payton has done some of the league's best coaching jobs. He made a few good free agents spots here and there, has developed a passing game that is both fun to watch and played to Drew Brees's best abilties, and has led (as well as Brees) one of the best thing to see in New Orleans. But this is fourth year coaching. For Jim Caldwell, this is his first year, so he has already done a better job than Payton had. Not to mention that he could have also led his team to an 18-0 record at this point if he chose to keep playing his starters in the final two games of the regular season. And, that my friends, is the defintion of a great rookie season.
Edge: Colts
Defense: Look, both of these defenses weren't as good or can be heavily matched up with their offenses. However, since defense is always a key part in these games, I'm gonna give the edge to the Colts in this category.. They have had the better pass defense than the Saints, even with New Orleans featuring Darren Sharper. And if you look at how both teams performed in the playoffs, it even solidifies this. The Colts limited the Ravens to only a field goal and just crushed the overachieving Jets offense in the second half. Meanwhile, the Saints really didn't do a good job of stopping Brett Favre until the INT. Though, I do give the Saints the edge in the team most likely to force a turnover.
Edge: Colts
Less Pressure: When the men in charge of the Colts decided to bench their key players in the final two weeks of the season, ultimately ending their chance to go for an undefeated record, they had to win the Super Bowl in order to prove that this decision was correct. So you can definitely say that the pressure is on them. As for the Saints, they have nothing to lose. They're the underdog in this game, so they don't have the "we have to win it because everyone thinks they should" mentality. Besides, they already made it to the big game, and even though they would like to win the game as much as the Colts, people won't look at them in a feeling of "they should have won it."
Edge: Saints
Kicker: Hey, you really never know if the game will come down to the final game. But if that will be the case, then who would you rather want as your kicker: Matt Stover or Garret Hartley? For me, I'd take Stover's experience anyday.
Edge: Colts
Homefield Advantage: While the game will be played at a neutral site, the crowd is never split 50/50. Take last year's Super Bowl for example. The game might have been played in Tampa, but you really couldn't tell from all those Terrible Towel waving Steelers fans in the crowd. And, according to tickets sold and location, it appears that there will be more Saints fans in the game, even though the Colts will be wearing the uniform of the home team.
Edge: Saints
And, there you go. The final tally:
Colts: 5
Saints: 4
Pretty close. That is, until you eliminate the aspects that don't involve the players and personnel on the team, then the tally is rounded out to:
Colts: 5
Saints: 1
As you can see, the colts are a big favorite in my book.
Other reasons that may or may not be relevant:
- The Colts have played all of their Super Bowls (four of them) in Miami, which is the site of this year's game. Their record as of now: 2-1 (2-0 since the 1970 merger!). And you know me! I always go with this kind of facts.
- Since CBS received broadcasting rights of the NFL (specifically the AFC) back after a hiatus of a few years, the AFC team has won every Super Bowl they have broadcasted (XXXV, XXXVIII, and sadly XLI). Add in the last two Super Bowls they broadcasted before the hiatus when the NFC (the league they broadcasted originally) won them. So that's five consecutive Super Bowls in which CBS broadcasted that the league in which they showed their championship game two weeks earlier has won. Again, I like those odds!
- Colts: 9 come from behind victories this year, including in the AFC championship game
Saints: 4 come from behind victories this year
Why is this important? Well, it means that I believe that, if a team were to repeat the comeback that the Cardinals had to do last season, I think the Colts would be the team most likely to accomplish it.
- The Colts have over a dozen players left from their Super Bowl XLI team. The Saints only have two. And as you know, it's better to have experience in this type of pressure packed situation.
- The only times the Colts have lost this year came when they benched their best players. So, if you think about it, the Colts have not lost a game this season in which they wanted to win.
- You just can't pick against the 2009 edition of Peyton Manning, with his countless hours of studying, his proffesionalism and the confidence you see in him that says "You REALLY think YOU can beat ME?" that wasn't seen in say, 2003 or 2005. You just can't. And trust me, I made that mistake two weeks ago, and it failed miserably.
mj50's pick: New Orleans
Playoff Records: mj50- 7-3
mj15- 6-4*
Overall Record: mj15- 169-94*
mj50- 161- 105
*(my pick of last week's Pro Bowl, which was right by the way, did not count)
So, there you have it: my lengthy pick as to why I like the blue and white hoisting the Lombardi Trophy between 8:30 p.m.- 9:30 p.m. on Sunday night. I want to thank my good friends Wikipedia, NFL.com, ESPN.com, TV, Drew Magary of Deadspin.com and Kissing Suzy Kolber.com, YouTube, Sports Illustrated and my experiences of watching the NFL the past ten years for helping me not only with this pick, but also for an entire season of information to help me decide and back up all of my 264 game picks this season (including the Pro Bowl) for this past year. Another big thanks to Footballlocks.com for the odds that I have provded every week. Another big thanks goes to mj50 for his picks and for the competition. He isn't as big of a football fan as me or listened to as much football information and analysis to make those picks (if not ever), and yet he still finished seven to nine (depending on what happens on Sunday) games behind me, which is pretty darn good.
Finally, I want to thank you for reading these weekly posts. The past twenty one columns were a labor of love to bring to you, so I hope you at least enjoyed reading it, and maybe even taking some of the things you read here and took it into account while you made your weekly picks. I'll be back as you might expect with the first picks of the 2010 season in September, though I might pop up with some NFL related posts during the course of the long seven month hiatus. Until then, enjoy the game and enjoy the time off!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you want to suggest anything to mj15 on his next blog entry, e-mail him at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mail might be addressed on a future post.
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