The 2011 NFL season finally kicks off Thursday with a fascinating matchup between the previous two Super Bowl champions, Green Bay and New Orleans.
God bless Roger Goodell, DeMaurice Smith, the owners and the rest of those magnificent labor disputing bastards! Sure their self-centerdness, incompetence and greed sent the league into a lockout that lasted for over four months with a strong chance early on that there might actually be actual NFL regular season games missed for the first time since the September 11th, 2001 terrorists sake. And yet, despite all of that everything remains forgiven as in late July they were finally able to come to their senses (most likely when the owners realized that they would be missing $1.8 billion of revenue per week and the players realized that they wouldn't get paid) and reach a new ten year CBA agreement, hugging it out in the process. And so, football will go on as planned along with the season that also wasn't and everything that comes with it, including the return of The mj15 Blog's NFL picks column!
Yes, for the third year in a row, I will be posting a weekly column (usually the day before the first game of each week is played) dedicated to predicting every single regular season and postseason NFL game from Opening Day onward to the Super Bowl, including some (usually half-assed) explanation as to why I chose the way that I did. Along with it, I will also be giving the spread of each game, which is weird because the column has nothing to do with picking against it, but whatever. In addition, I will also be providing the predictions of my father, who you probably already know in this blog as the guy that's been referred to since its very beginning as mj50, out of pure tradition these days and in order to offer the opinion of someone who doesn't know as much about the sport as I do. In other words, it's the same damn column from the past two years with little to no changes.
In year one, I finished the season with 169 games picked correctly (60% win pct.). In year two, I slightly improved myself by picking 174 games correctly (61.7% win pct.). How will I do in year three? Let's start finding out. Here are the list of things that I think is going to happen in week one of the NFL season, and since this is week one I will also provide a few general thoughts that I might have of some of their teams as well. As has been the case in the previous three year and will continue to for the time being, all starting game times are based on the Central Daylight Time Zone.
Let's begin:
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-4): Thursday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
While the NFL has had a recent tradition of starting out the season on a Thursday with a matchup that at the time was a pretty stellar, the outcomes have for the most part been pretty predictable in that the home team (a.k.a. the Super Bowl champion from the previous season) has come out on top every year since 2004. The Patriots did it in '04 and '05, the Steelers did it in '06 and '09, the Colts did it in '07, the Giants did it in '08, the Saints did it last year, and, even though this New Orleans is arguably better than the one from last season, I have a good feeling that the Packers will win to continue the trend. Better offense, better defense, a slight advantage at the QB position, and they're going to ride off from the momentum of the ring ceremony. In other words, expect the defending champs to start off the year just as they finished it.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
The rivalry that's currently the best in the NFL gets renewed in an Opening Sunday showdown. The Ravens have tried to improve their efforts of a first division title since 2006 by replacing Derrick Mason, Willis McGahee and T.J. Houshmanzadeh with Lee Evans and Roy Williams while the only major storylines this season have come from their off-the-field issues (James Harrison's "Men's Journal" interview, Hines Ward's DUI, Rashad Mendenhall's Bin Laden sympathy tweets) than their actual moves (CLASS OF THE NFL!). Unfortunately, while I have no doubt that this match-up will once again feature the showdown's usual trademarks (hard hits, stellar plays by both defenses, a wild and close finish), I'm still going to do what I have done for the past two years and pick the Steelers to win the game, and for one reason: Roethlisberger. For starters, he's 9-2 lifetime against Baltimore. Second, he one of the few QBs in the league with the unique ability of making big plays during the game's final or most pivotal moments (see his 3rd & 19 throw to Antonio Brown in last season's divisional playoff game), while Joe Flacco has yet to do in his first three seasons in the league.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
It's a matchup of two of the most promising teams heading into the season. The Bucs are coming off a rather surprising season, winning 10 games, though it's not so surprising considering the fact that nine of those wins came against under .500 teams (as I constantly brought up during last season) while Lions fans are heading to the season with the most hope they have had since Barry Sanders retired, thanks to a talented core of young players led by franchise QB Matthew Stafford, speedy RB Jahvid Best, all around great WR Calvin Johnson and the defensive line duo of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley that could pose some serious problems for opposing offenses each week. In week 15 of last season, Detroit ended up beating the Bucs in overtime 23-20, and that was with Stafford injured and Fairley helping Auburn in their quest to win a national championship. Considering that Tampa Bay made no move during the offseason to convince me that they have gotten better, expect to see the Lions come out of this game with their first Opening Day win since 2007 (though I do think it will be close throughout).
mj50's pick: Tampa Bay
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Chicago Bears: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
The Bears start off with an absolutely brutal schedule to begin the year, this one being the first against an Atlanta team that finished on top of the NFC last season and are expected by many (including myself) to be better this year. Maybe if this was in December, I would have given my favorite team a better shot. But with the weather expected to be a beautiful 80 degrees and sunny, and with Atlanta being superior in most areas of the games outside of linebacker and special teams, I just don't see them getting the job done.
mj50's pick: Chicago
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Kansas City
It's a matchup of two teams that had two different fates in 2010. One team finished the season surprisingly winning the AFC West when many thought they would be battling the Broncos for third place while the other finished last in their division for the third year in a row and probably will once again since the biggest thing that happened to them in the offseason was Louis C.K. talking trash about it in his season two Afghanistan episode of "Louie." I think that there is no doubt in my mind that whatever their luck was during the regular season last year will continue in week one. The Chiefs finished the season 7-1 at home in Arrowhead Stadium last season while the Bills finished 2-6 on the road. The Bills probably have the slight edge in passing offense as there is no better combination among these two teams than Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson, but that's immediately offset by the fact that Jamaal Charles and last year's #1 rushing offense takes on last year's #1 rushing defense.
mj50's pick: Kansas City
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (-8.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Even before it was reported today that Peyton Manning would not play on Sunday because of a broken neck, snapping his 208 game regular season starts streak, I had the Texans winning this game because the last time these two teams played at Houston, Arian Foster completely destroyed the Colts rushing defense and the Texans as a resulted won. Now the probability of Kerry Collins starting at quarterback for Indianapolis for not just this week but in the weeks ahead just enforces my conviction. Expect to see a second straight opening day win for the Team That Should Have Had a Breakout Season By Now But Haven't Yet.
mj50's pick: Houston
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
While this Philadelphia Eagles team isn't exactly the so-called "Dream Team" that was coined by Vince Young and has since become their team nickname, I think we can all agree that they are at least look real good. Nnamdi Asomusha, Dominique-Rogers Cromartie, Ronnie Brown and Jason Babin were solid additions to the roster, while Michael Vick aims to continue his performance from last year that helped him win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Meanwhile, the Rams look poise to finish what they couldn't during their final game of last season and win the NFC West due to the fact that Sam Bradford and Stephen Jackson are the best QB-RB combo in their division by default and because they've made a solid improvement at offensive coordinator with Josh McDaniels (a coaching gig that he is actually good at). For all we know, this could be a very early playoff preview (Is it weird to call a week one matchup that? I feel like I'm advising someone to wear white after Labor Day). Anyways, where was I...ah, yes, my pick! I'm choosing the Eagles to win because they have the more solid team heading into the game, and because St. Louis has yet to prove that they can win against good teams of Philadelphia's caliber (last year, they finished the year with only one win against an over .500 team, and that was a San Diego Chargers team that finished 7-9). Is there any other reason that I should be mentioning?
mj50's pick: Philadelphia
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cleveland
So, who's ready for the Andy Dalton era in Cincinnati to begin? Anyone? Well too bad, because with Carson Palmer still in retirement limbo at the moment, you're going to have to see the league's most noticeable redhead in action as he leads the Bengals in a road against the Cleveland Browns that they're almost certainly going to lose. Why? Well outside of the fact that they're one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the NFL with the league's worst lifetime coach, pretty much the entire team outside of its pretty decent linebacking corp looks pretty much God awful (like, preseason favorite to finish with the league's worst record bad). Meanwhile, Cleveland is at home and, while I think that the preseason is meaningless for the most part, Colt McCoy is coming off a stellar and very well reviewed preseason, completing on average 65% of his throws in the short amount of time that he was on the field, giving Browns fans some hope in their offense. In short, I'm liking my chances with the Northern Ohio team.
mj50's pick: Cleveland
HALFTIME! After arguing with myself for over a week, I've decided on continuing to embed clips of stand-up comedy bits that I think are pretty funny in the middle of the column. We begin this season appropriately with legendary comedian George Carlin talking about the differences between baseball and football, two sports that are coincidentally going to be headlining in the next two months. Take it away, George!
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
Can you believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars actually came a game away from making the playoffs last season? Apparently, not even the Jaguars believe it as they have just announced that they would release the quarterback that helped them finish 2nd in the division last year, deciding to go with Luke McCown as their starter instead. While I do not necessarily agree with that move, it doesn't in any way make me want to change my pick for this game. Both teams are pretty equal, but the Jaguars are at home where they had a winning record last season with a better defense, and a better head coach to lead the way. Also, I don't really believe that Chris Johnson is going to come off the gate following his contract holdout and zero games played in the postseason without any rust whatsoever and just obliterate the Jaguars defense, carrying the team over what should be a mediocre performance from Matt Hasselback. If there's anyone who should do great in the game, it's Maurice Jones-Drew or nothing.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
New York Giants (-3) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Whether it's John Beck or Rex Grossman, none of them are still good enough quarterbacks to convince me that they will lead a rather mediocre Redskins team against the Giants.
mj50's pick: New York
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-7): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Carolina
For some reason, I think that the Carolina Panthers are going to do pretty good this year and exceed their expectations. Maybe it's because Cam Newton is a significantly better QB than any of the ones they had in their 2-14 season last year, even though the preseason has proven that he still can't throw the football well in the league. Maybe it's because of their running game and their TE combination of Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen, or maybe it's because the NFC South has had a weird track record over the past decade of having teams that are really bad one year but then pretty good the next. Either way, I expect to see them do better than what most people predict, starting with this game.
mj50's pick: Arizona
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: SeattleBy the way, before I forget, here are my full predictions as to how I think the entire NFL season is going to play out, not just week-by-week:
REGULAR SEASON
NFC North
(1)Green Bay: 12-4
Chicago: 9-7
Detroit: 7-9
Minnesota: 5-11
NFC East
(2)Dallas: 11-5
(5)Philadelphia: 10-6
New York Giants: 8-8
Washington: 6-10
NFC South:
(3)Atlanta: 11-5
(6)New Orleans: 10-6
Tampa Bay: 8-8
Carolina: 6-10
NFC West:
(4)St. Louis: 9-7
Seattle: 7-9
Arizona: 6-10
San Francisco: 5-11
AFC North:
(1)Pittsburgh: 13-3
(5)Baltimore: 10-6
Cleveland: 8-8
Cincinnati: 3-13
AFC East:
(2)New England: 12-4
(6)New York Jets: 10-6
Miami: 6-10
Buffalo: 4-12
AFC South:
(4)Houston: 10-6 (I know, I know)
Indianapolis: 7-9
Jacksonville: 6-10
Tennessee: 6-10
AFC West:
(3)San Diego: 11-5
Oakland: 9-7
Kansas City: 7-9
Denver: 6-10
PLAYOFFS
Wild Card:
Atlanta over New Orleans
Philadelphia over St. Louis
New York Jets over San Diego
Houston over Baltimore
Divisional Playoffs:
Green Bay over Philadelphia
Atlanta over Dallas
Pittsburgh over New York Jets
New England over Houston
Conference Championships:
Green Bay over Atlanta
Pittsburgh over New England
Super Bowl XLVI:
Green Bay over Pittsburgh
So I've got the season playing out with Green Bay repeating and winning their fifth Vince Lombardi trophy in franchise history over the Steelers in a rematch of Super Bowl XLV. I'm also got the Texans for the third year in a row as my so-called "breakout team" (even if my gut tell me that they will finish the season with a disappointing over .500 record instead), the Colts missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001, Cincinnati finishing the year with the #1 pick in the 2012 draft (that they will probably use to take Andrew Luck) and the Cowboys beating the Eagles for the NFC East crown as some of my other highlights. But then again last year I picked the Chargers to make the AFC Championship, Chicago and Kansas City to finish at under .500 and San Francisco to win the NFC West last season, so what the hell do I know.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Diego Chargers (-8.5): Sunday- 3:!5 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
As much as it would be cool to see San Diego end the season like they did last year with the #1 offense, #1 defense and #2 in the division or in an even more ridiculous Norv Turner-ian manner, I think that you and I both know that it's ain't gonna happen.
mj50's pick: San Diego
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (-4.5): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
With a healthy Tony Romo, I think that this Cowboys team are going to do very well this season...just not in this game, though. It's Rex Ryan over Rob Ryan for me every day of the week.
mj50's pick: New York
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins: Monday- 6:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
Not only are the New England Patriots clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they are also 6-1 in their last seven Monday Night Football games. I don't know about you, but I don't think that a team like Miami that is not only inferior but lost both of their matchups in 2010 by a combined score of 79-21 is going to cause any difficulties for New England.
mj50's pick: Miami
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-3): Monday- 9:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
Did you know that the Oakland Raiders have never won a Monday Night Football game since ESPN started airing it? It's true! Well, get ready my friend, because that losing streak is finally coming to an end this week. Not only are Darren McFadden and Michael Bush going to tear up the Denver Broncos defense that finished dead last in rushing defense last year, but their defense should be good enough for the team to stop Kyle Orton and the rest of Denver's stellar passing game.
mj50's pick: Denver
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: New England over Miami
The Baylor over TCU Upset of the Week: Carolina over Arizona
The "Mad Men" vs. "Breaking Bad" "I'm Not Sure" Pick of the Week: Jacksonville over Tennessee
And so concludes the first of twenty two NFL game predictions columns that you will see over the course of the next six months. My sure to stop by again next week (most likely sometime on Friday the 16th) for not only my predictions on the game you will see week 2, but also for my week 1 analysis and to see how I ended up doing. Considering that last year I started out the season 11-5, I have a pretty good feeling that I will start out the season just as good, if not better. Otherwise, enjoy the games. Boy, is it great to have the NFL back!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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