A lot of interesting storylines in week 4. The Lions, Bills, and Packers are all trying to remain as the league's only undefeated teams, while Michael Vick returns onto the field after suffering an injury (hand) for his second straight game last week against the Giants, the Texans and Raiders try to prove that they're true contenders, the Vikings and Chiefs try to see which 0-3 team is slightly less worse, and more. So, if you don't mind, I'm going to just skip the usual monologue and head straight to the picks (F.Y.I., both mj50 and I finished last week at 9-7, putting our combined records at a dead-even 31-17). As always, the game starts are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
In two of their first three games, Detroit had to win by coming back in the 4th quarter, so at some point you'd figure that their luck would run out. Fortunately for Lions fan, I don't think that it will this week. The Dallas offensive line should give a good matchup for the motivated Ndamukong Suh, and I don't think that Megatron Calvin Johnson will have a problem against any of Dallas' corners. A 4-0 start for the Lions: whodathunkit?
mj50's pick: Dallas
New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
Drew Brees and the Saints offense have basically man-handles every defense they've faced so far this season, from the Packers in week 1 (34 points) to the Texans last week (40 points). With weather conditions in Jacksonville expected to be a perfect 76 degrees and sunny, expect to see this trend this week as they take on a Jaguars team with eighth injured defensive players and an offense that averages less than ten points a game.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-9): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
I would say its because of the Mike Greenberg Theory, but San Francisco showed last week that they are capable of defeating that theory with a win in Cincinnati last week. Also, it's not like the Eagles are the clear heavy favorites in this one. Currently, San Francisco has won more times in the first three weeks than Philly, and have the least amount of serious injuries on their team, with Michael Vick, Jeremy Maclin and Steve Smith being listed in the injury report this week. So why with the Philly pick? Because the Eagles aren't the Seahawks or the Bengals (the teams that the 49ers defeat at this point in the season.
They're more packed with good players. They're more talented on both sides of the ball. Their rushing attack has been outstanding so far, averaging over 180 yards per game. They don't have Alex Smith. Basically, they have the team and the homefield advantage to defeat this West Coast team. However, they've been the paper team on paper throughout the season and have only won once, so...
mj50's pick: Philadelphia
Washington Redskins (-2) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: St.Louis
Because it would be very Redskin-y for the team to lose to a Rams team that's trying to prove to everyone that they're not as terrible as they've shown themselves to be at this point in the season. Also, the real Sam Bradford has to come out of his sophomore slump shell at some point, and I have a feeling it will come against this Washington defense, who has given up, on average, 240 yards per game.
mj50's pick: St. Louis
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns (EVEN): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
It's a strange sight, indeed, when the Tennessee Titans are 2-1 despite the team averaging a dead last in rushing. Instead, they've been doing it with Matt Hasselbeck looking rejuvenated, averaging 300 yards a game and its defense leading the league with the least yards allowed per game (and since they did it while playing Baltimore this season, this stat can't be considered a fluke). Anyways, I've learned this season that Cleveland really can't be trusted to win whenever they're supposed to. They've been favored in all three games they've played, lost one of them and almost lost the other. Since Tennessee is a better team than any of the previous three that the Browns faced, I see the Titans coming out of it with a rather surprising 3-1 record.
mj50's pick: Cleveland
Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
Look, I like the Buffalo Bills. I really do. I was extremely impressed with the way that they were able to come back down 21-0 against the Patriots, a team they haven't beaten since 2003, to win the game on a last second field goal (with the defense intercepting Tom Brady four times, the most the quarterback has been picked in a game since 2006). I'm also very happy for the city and its fanbase, who have the best chance they've ever had on getting to the postseason since their last appearance in the Music City Miracle twelve seasons ago thanks to a high-flying offense, a sneaky good defense, and an efficient running back in Fred Jackson. That said, I'm just not ready to buy into this team contending all season long just yet because of this short amount of games that we've seen them play. Personally, I'd much rather see how they do this October against the Eagles, Redskins, Jets and Cowboys before making a decision.
Anyways, onto this game specifically...I feel like this is going to be a major trap game for Buffalo. They're coming off this emotional win at home against this team that they badly wanted to defeat in dramatic fashion. Then, there's the rather interesting schedule that they have in the weeks ahead (mentioned earlier). With that said, I see it being much like the Ravens/Titans game two weeks ago in which the Bills fill the role of Baltimore and the Bengals filling the role of Tennessee.
mj50's pick: Cincinnati
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears (-6): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Carolina
Before I explain my pick, there were rwo fantastic moments that occurred in the NFL last week involving both of these teams. The first came in Carolina when the Panthers faced the Jaguars and the great monsoon of rain that swept through the field. The best thing about it was when the field was being turned to mud instantly while the seats had so much water pouring, it created this great water fall that flowed to the team sidelines, row by row. The rain was so strong, at one point, that you could barely see anything. Football is forever associated with sub-degree temperatures at game time and snow that fall from beginning to end, but massive rain during a game ranks right up to those two for me. Besides, it just make long runs like the one Maurice Jones-Drew had look much, much cooler.
The second came at the end of the Chicago-Green Bay game. It was late in the 4th quarter and the Packers were leading 27-17, ready to punt it to the Bears on 4th down. As the ball was in the air during the punt, Devin Hester looks up in the air as if he was about to catch the ball, and the majority of the special teams players from both sides were rushing to protect and/or tackle Hester as a result. However, what not many people knew was that the ball wasn't being directed to Hester, but rather to Johnny Knox, who was on the other side of the field. So Knox caught the punt and then, with no one in his way because everyone was at the side Hester was in, he went into the endzone rather easily in a moment that was so surprising, that even the FOX cameras didn't know what was going on until two or three seconds after Knox began his return.
The touchdown wasn't counted, as the refs called an unfortunate flag for holding on the Bears in some sort of delayed karma for the Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in week one of last season. Still, holding or not, that was still one of the most brilliant. It needed a bunch of factors to work, such as the presence of the NFL's greatest kick returner ever, Devin Hester, but also for the others Bears players to act as if the ball way going his way and for the Packers to simply not look at the ball...and it worked stupendously! And for that, there's nothing else to do but to credit Bears special teams coordinator Dave Toub, for getting the idea in his head, practicing it with his team, and then decided to use it in such desperate times as this one. My only problem was that it came at a time he did it too early in the season. Now, the rest of the year, the opposite side is going to remember this and try to make sure that this doesn't happen again for quite a while.
So, where was I? Oh, yeah, the Ron Rivera bowl! Well, I picked the Panthers for two simple reasons. The first is because of Cam Newton. He has played really well against passing defenses as erratic as the Bears have been this season when not bothered by crazy amount of falling liquid. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler and the Bears offensive line have struggled in the two games following their Atlanta victory, and I'm not sure that they can get their groove back, if you will, against a Panthers defense that is about as even as the defenses he faced during the two previous weeks. Expect Rivera, the former Bears defensive coordinator to get some sweet revenge over his former boss, Lovie Smith. Now, let's scroll back up to watch that sweet special teams play again!
mj50's pick: Chicago
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans (-3.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
I don't care if the Texans are at home and the Steelers have been struggling! They have yet to show me over the past few years under Gary Kubiak that they could win a big game that isn't against the Colts, and I won't pick them until I am proven otherwise.
mj50's pick: Houston
HALFTIME! This week's clip of sweet, stand-uping goodness comes from "Tosh.0" creator and star, Daniel Tosh. Love him or hate him, I think we can all agree that this bit is pretty funny.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Minnesota
Minnesota: the kings of second half meltdowns! Each of their first three games have featured a lead at halftime, and each game has seen the team blowing the lead away somehow (even outscored a combined 64-6 through these first three games), mostly because head coach Leslie Frazier realized that he has the best running back in NFL, Adrian Peterson, in the backfield and has thus used him sparingly. Also, Donovan McNabb continues to be terrible. So how will the Vikings do against fellow 0-3 team Kansas City? In one word: better. The Chiefs offense is still bad, averaging a league low 9 points per game while Jamaal Charles is still ruining people's fantasy teams with his injury. Plus, if you're betting a matchup against two bad teams, why wouldn't you pick the one that has the dangerous Jared Allen constantly attacking Matt Cassel?
mj50's pick: Minnesota
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Come on, Atlanta! Don't make me look even more like an idiot for picking you to go to the NFC Championship than I already am!
mj50's pick: Seattle
New York Giants (-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
The Cardinals have lost two weeks in a row to both the Redskins and the Seahawks, and now they're going up against a New York Giants team coming off a big win in Philadelphia and much better than the former two. It's as simple as that.
What's that? Why yes, I am rushing to finish this column up. Why do you ask?
mj50's pick: New York
Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers (-7): Sunday-3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Things have not been going well with the Miami Dolphins, to say the least. They're 0-3, a record that less than 10% of teams in the history of the NFL has seen overcome to make the postseason. In, addition, they're averaging a below-mediocre 17.7 points per game, their defense (the only good thing about them last season) is ranked in the bottom three, and Tony Sparano's hot seat is no longer a hot seat, but a boiling pot as fans have grown increasingly restless and at lost of hope with the direction that the team is being taken under his own watch. Will they overcome their struggles this week to beat the Chargers under desperate circumstances? I don't think so. Phillip Rivers has averaged just below 300 yards per game at home in his last seven games at Qualcomm Stadium, and from past experiences (Dallas and Minnesota last year, for instances) situations where teams have a coach with one foot out of the door does not end well.
mj50's pick: San Diego
Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers (-12): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
What can I say? The Packers are just the most consistently good team this season, better than any other franchise in the National Football League in 2011, and I see their good play continue this week against a mediocre Broncos team.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
New England Patriots (-5) vs. Oakland Raiders: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
This should be interesting. New England is coming off a self-destructive loss to Buffalo, trying to avoid back-to-back games for only the third time in six seasons, while Oakland is relevant once again, coming off a statement win against the Jets and hoping to prove to the country, once again, that they are for real. I'm reserved to not pick the Raiders in this one. New England's pass rush may be awful, but their offense has done more than making up for it, averaging 34 points and a league-leading 540 games per game, and I doubt that either the Raiders or their fans will be able to stop them. Meanwhile, Darren McFadden is suffering through a groin injury, and I think this could have a negative effect on the league's current #1 rushing attack. That said, Jason Campbell should have a good day and Richard Seymour will try as best as he can to exact revenge on the team that traded him away last year, so while I think the Patriots are going to win, they're going to do it with an earned effort.
mj50's pick: Oakland
New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): Sunday- 7:25 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
For the second year in a row, Rex Ryan will play against the team he used to defensive coordinate. And, for the second year in a row, I have a feeling that the exact same result will occur, with the Ravens winning in a defensive struggle. New York's cornerstone, their defense, has struggled this season, even giving up over 234 yards on the run versus Darren McFadden. I'm not so sure that they will rebound against another great running back, Ray Rice.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10): Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
I've read a few articles this week from writers saying that last week's near victory against the Steelers means that their is still some hope this season for the Colts. With all due respect to each of them, I will strongly disagree. They've onlyt come back from an 0-3 deficit to make it in the playoffs only once in team history (1988), and Jim Irsay has stated that there's a good chance at this point that Peyton Manning might not play at all this season, let alone in the first three months. They also have a pretty tough schedule, with the Saints, the Titans, the Falcons and the Patriots in their rear-view mirror. Their a team with no hope whatsoever this season, and that includes this week against the resilient Bucs.
mj50's pick: Tampa Bay
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Packers over Broncos
The "Lion Kind 3D" Winning the Box Office Two Weeks in a Row Upset of the Week: Cincinnati over Buffalo
The "Mad Men" vs. "Breaking Bad" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Carolina over Chicago
And...that's gonna do it! I remind you once again to stop by next week around the same time for a recap of how I did this week, along with the predictions for week 5. Until then, enjoy the weekend, and enjoy the games, too.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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