No time to stall with another monologue of what is arguably the best weekend in all of professional football. Here are the predictions that my father, mj50, and I have for the four upcoming divisional round playoff games. As always, game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Saturday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Francisco
This game was a really challenging one for me to choose because each team makes a great case as to why they should win. The Saints have, of course, that incredible offense, who last week had an NFL playoff record 662 total yards against the Lions, with Drew Brees contributing 466 yards in continuation of his already record-breaking season. They also have the playoff experience, winning the Super Bowl just two seasons before. The 49ers, meanwhile, feature in this game the better running back (Frank Gore) the much better defense (gotta love a team that gave up only one rushing TD all season), and the homefield advantage at Candlestick Park.
After careful deliberation, I've decided that it is the 49ers who will come out of this one on top. It's easy to look at what the Saints have done offensively over the past few weeks and say that they're pretty much unstoppable at the moment. And honestly, I wouldn't blame you for thinking so. But if you look at the stats throughout the season, you would see that there's a difference between the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome and the New Orleans Saints on the road. When the Saints are at home, they're pretty much unstoppable (9-0) and there ability to score points is phenomenal (a ridiculous 36.5 points per game). When they're on the road, they are a much more vulnerable team, where all three of their losses this season took place and where their scoring average is 13 points less. Playing on turf is much different than playing on actual mud and grass.
Finally, let's talk about the 49ers for a moment, without a doubt the best ever in the post-Steve Young era. This is a team that has shown multiple times that they're able to defeat anyone, anyway, whether it's an East Coast on the road in the early afternoon (kryptonite for most West Coast teams, but not for the 49ers who have done so four times, the most of any team that region in fifteen years) or at home against other good teams (see: week 10 against the Giants and week 15 against the Steelers). This is a team that's playing at home for the first time since 2002 in what should be a fired up crowd. They're hungry to finally give their fans some happiness in January after a decade that included seven losing seasons and no playoff appearances in between. They also have the defense to both pressure Drew Brees and stop the running game if the Saints find it necessary to use it, as well as the coach in Jim Harbaugh to motivate them into believing themselves and showing the entire country that they should be taken seriously for the rest of the postseason.
Add all of these factors up, and I sense a very festive mood in the Bay Area once the evening approaches.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (-13.5): Saturday- 7:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
After a week that saw the Broncos defeating the Steelers in an overtime thriller, with Tim Tebow throwing for a career best 316 yard (including the 80 yards game winning touchdown to Demayius Thomas win the game), the AFC West champions now travel to New England to face a Patriots team that already defeated them earlier this season, 41-23. Not to sound glib, but this game is really New England's to lose. They're at home (where they've lost once all year, and that was to the Giants in week 9), they have the better quarterback in Tom Brady, they're coming into this focused and determined to win after losing a decade-worst three straight playoff games in four seasons, and (as their first game with Denver showed) they have found the blueprint to stop Tim Tebow from working his magic once again.
Also, just look at Denver's win last week as an example as to why they won't win this game. They were facing an injured Ben Roethlisberger struggling to do what he does best (scrambling and moving outside of the pocket) with his injured leg, a defense with Ryan Clark, and they had a 20-6 lead heading into halftime at home (although it could've been larger, since the Broncos intercepted Roethlisberger twice and ended up having more possession in the red zone). And what happened? The Steelers came back, and almost won had their offense gained one or two more first downs as the fourth quarter winded down. That's not a good sign heading into a matchup with a team that's much more prepared as the Patriots are. Maybe this Broncos team will surprise us once again with another impressive performance and a valiant effort down the stretch to win. But for the life of me, I just don't see that happening.
mj50's pick: New England
HALFTIME! I'm giving the stand-up portion of this column a week off after this one since there is only going to be two games to cover and return it for one final time during the Super Bowl bye week. In the meantime, here's "Parks and Recreations" star Aziz Ansari in his "Raaaaaaaandy" character as your comedy goodness of the week. Watching this, I think it's pretty obvious where he gets a lot of his inspiration for Tom Haverford's character traits.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
This game might be more close than you might think. After all, just like the Ravens, the Texans also feature a stellar, top 5 defense and a wonderful (arguably even better) running game. Plus, Joe Flacco is still the quarterback for Baltimore, and as the last three seasons have shown us, the young man is not one that most teams would like to have under center during playoff games. That said, I still have the Ravens winning this one, pretty much for the same reason that most other people have picked the Ravens to win: homefield advantage, and their experienced and tough to beat defense in a favorable matchup against T.J. Yates. Also, because last week's win for Houston was so monumental (it was their first playoff "W" ever, after all), that I wouldn't be shocked to see that team experiencing an emotional letdown this time around.
mj50's pick: Houston
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Sunday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
In week one of the season, I picked the Green Bay Packers to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Nineteen weeks later, and I've decided to stick with that prediction. That said, the Giants sure made a good case for me switching sides. After all, they're on a hot streak and looking like they're slowly repeating the formula they had to win in 2007. They've also got the pass rush to stop the Green Bay passing game, and they could've beaten the Packers earlier this season had it not been for some last minute heroics from Aaron Rodgers.
That said, the Packers still have as much going for them as do the Giants. They're at home, where they're undefeated this season. They're offense is not like the Falcons last week, meaning that they will score more than a safety. The Packers defense gives up a lot of yards, but they make up for it in turnovers, something that Eli Manning likes to do. The Giants are a fine team and will definitely give this Packers team a run for their money. But in the end, I see another spectacular Aaron Rodgers drive during the end giving Green Bay the edge in this one and another spot to the NFC Championship game.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
mj15 last week: 3-1 (3-1 in the postseason)
mj50 last week: 3-1 (3-1 in the postseason)
mj15 this season: 181-79
mj50 this season: 175-82
At this point, I have a six game lead over mj50 this season, with seven more games total left to play. Considering how we only have one game this week with different selections, it officially means that I have yet again won our season-long competition to see who can predict the most games correctly regarded of what happens (making me 3-for-3 since I began this column in 2009). Hooray, and with a personal best record to boot! Still, congrats to mj50 nonetheless for still sticking around and making this our closest race ever (with him also receiving a personal best record, including a startling 15-1 record in week 16, the best record any of us had ever had in a single week). If there was any example that proves that the amount of football knowledge you have has any correlation with the number of games you pick correctly, it would be this one.
Now, here's some final football-related random thoughts to close out this column:
- Let's face it, if the 49ers win against the Saints, then the winner of the Giants/Packers game is the clear front-runner to win the Super Bowl. No offense to the 49ers, but no matter how much they defeat New Orleans this week, there's no way that they will be favorited to win against either the defending champs on the road, or a red hot team on the road trying to revive their 2007 gloriness.
-Another reason why I picked the Patriots: Tebowmania. I just can't stand it anymore. I hope that the Patriots clobber the Broncos just so I can have a few months rest from the constant slobbering of the Broncos from the media and his fans.
- According to a recent poll, 43% of Americans believe that Tim Tebow's success has something to do with divine intervention. I love you, America, but sometimes your people just scare me. This is one of those examples.
- Must be nice for the Baltimore Ravens to play at home in the playoffs for a change after seven straight road games.
- Smart move by the Patriots hiring Josh McDaniel. I don't care how unfair you think it was. The fact that they brought back someone who was the offensive coordinator during their record-breaking 2007 season and someone who was the head coach of their upcoming opponent for a few years, who can give some idea of their team's strengths and weaknesses, was a very positive decision.
-If there was any week that showed many people's fears when the league decided to push the kickoff from the 30 to the 35 yard line, it was last week. So. Much. Touchbacks!
- Last week's missed fourth and short opportunity in the third quarter for the Falcons was probably the finest example of how one little paly can shape the entire momentum of a football game. Once Eli Manning threw that long TD pass to Hakeem Nicks a few minutes later and the Falcons sidelines grew self-loathing and desperate, you just knew then and there that this game was already won, no matter what else happened.
Be sure to stop by next week for a recap of how well both mj50 and I did this week as well as my conference championship week breakdown. Until then, have a nice weekend, and here's hoping to an outstanding week of playoff football.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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