Saints QB Drew Brees, coming off a record-breaking regular season, is set to take on the Detroit Lions this Saturday to start leading his team's quest to a second Super Bowl.It's playoff time, y'all! Time to finally put awful teams like the Rams and the Dolphins aside for the next nine months and finally start focusing on what's important: the twelve best football teams in the regular season playing eleven matchups to decide next month's Super Bowl winner in Indianapolis. And we begin with four interesting Wild Card matchups to kick it off (yes, even the Bengals and the Texans, which could be sneaky good).
This week, I've decided to get straight into business. No monologue, no update on the season standings for mj50 and myself and no playoff random thoughts until the very end, no stalling period. Here it is, without any further interruption, our picks for the four upcoming playoff games this weekend. Game times, as always, are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans (-4): Saturday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
The last time these two teams met, it was a close battle in which the Texans defeated the Bengals on the final play of the game with a touchdown in Cincinnati. Now these two teams reunite in Houston, with the stakes far more greater than when they played four weeks ago. The Bengals in this game have two big things in their favor: the rookie combination extraordinaire of Andy Dalton to A.J. Green, and the fact that the Texans still have plenty of significant injuries. Although everyone on Houston's injury report is listed as either probable or questionable, you still can't ignore the fact that Andre Johnson still has some lingering issues to his hamstring, that half of their secondary is experiencing some kind of leg related injury, and that T.J. Yates (the first rookie quarterback selected in the 5th round or later to start in the postseason since the common draft era began in '67) has a left shoulder injury that makes the presence of Jake Delholmme in the game even greater. A playoff game with Jake Delholmme having to decide your team's future? And with his last playoff performance against the Cardinals in the 2008 season still fresh in everyone's mind? Yeah, that's not a good thing to have.
That said, I'm still picking the Texans to win. While their quarterback position isn't solid, they still have two of the key ingredients that brought them this far: their strong rushing game and their top five defense. Also, they have the homefield advantage going, and with this team playing not only their first home game in franchise history but their first playoff game period, I believe that they will play extra hard in what should be a pretty emotional game for them as a team. Also, and I've said this for the past ten or so weeks and I will continue to say it until they prove me wrong (which I suppose will be with a win this afternoon), the Bengals HAVE NOT BEEN GOOD AGAINST OVER .500 TEAMS THIS SEASON!
You know how many games the Bengals have played against teams that finished with a .500 record or better in the regular season? Nine. You know what was their overall record this year in these nine games? 2-7. That's right, folks. All of the Bengals seven losses have come against teams with a record similar to them or better (ironically, one of their two wins came against the Titans, which became one of the main reasons why the Bengals made it to the postseason in the first place). On the other side of the spectrum, the Texans are 5-2 in similar circumstance (including wins against the Steelers and the Falcons). I've used the method of finding out the record of Bengals opponents to determine whether the Bengals would win or not many times, and all of those times my predictions ended up being correct. And now, I have a good feeling that this trend will continue against later today for one last time.
mj50's pick: Houston
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints (-10.5): Saturday- 7:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
On paper, this should be a pretty exciting game, as this is the first time in playoff history where two 5,000 yards passer meet in the same game. And yes, this game should be pretty high scoring. But in the end, I believe the outcome is going to be the least surprising, with Drew Brees and the Saints defeating Matthew Stafford and the Lions to earn a matchup next week with San Francisco. The Saints have been unstoppable at home, winning all eighth of their regular season games in the Superdome and averaging 41 points in those victories. Second, the Lions don't have a strong running game(which is one of the reasons why Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards anyway, because he would usually throw the ball for a league leading 663 times), while the Saints have a triple threat with Darren Sproles, Marc Ingram and Pierre Thomas if they were to ever decide on slowing the game down and waste plenty of time on the clock. Finally, if you want to really know why I don't like the Lions defense to match up against Drew Brees this week, just look at last week as a prime example when they allowed Packers back-up Matt Flynn to throw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game where they were playing for seeding while Green Bay had nothing to lose. That performance by the defense is not a good sign when you're about to take on one of the most explosive passing games in NFL history.
mj50's pick: Detroit
HALFTIME! Last Saturday during New Year's Eve, TCM was airing a marathon of some of the best movies from the legendary Marx Brothers. "Duck Soup," "Night at the Opera," you name it. They likely showed it. So, with this in mind, I've decided on kick starting this first predictions column of the 2011 postseason with one of the comedy group's best bits. Ladies and gentleman, from "Night at the Opera" here's the movie's famous hotel scene, still funny after over eighty years. Enjoy!
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Consider the Falcons to be kind of like the Bengals of the NFC. When they've played bad teams, they won and usually won big. Just look at their blowout 41-14 win against the Jaguars week 15, or their 45-24 blowout win against the Buccaneers last week as two examples. And yet when they had a chance of playing teams on their level, they almost always lose. They lost to the Jay Cutler lead Bears in week one (and, yes, I'm including that Bears team as a legitimately good one as opposed to the one that played at the end of the season without him), they lost to the Packers, they lost to the Texans, and they got swept by the Saints. The only win they've had this season against another playoff team? Week 7 against the Lions (who, as I just mentioned, won't make it out of this week alive either).
But enough about why the Falcons are overrated, let's talk about why the Giants will win this thing. For starters, they have Eli Manning. Even though he has had a history of being underwhelming in critical game, he's still coming off one of his best regular seasons ever, and he has the postseason experience that the opposing starting QB Matt Ryan (who's 0-2 in two tries) doesn't. Second, they're defensive line is still one of the best of the league, and with Osi Umenyiora now back, I expect them to give that Falcons offensive line (who I'm sure will be playing a lot more cautiously than they would like thanks to the special attention the referees will have on them following the Giants accusations of their dirtiness) plenty of trouble. They've also got the momentum of winning two critical regular season games in a row (including last week's NFC East championship against Dallas), the electrifying Victor Cruz at wide receiver, and homefield advantage (in the first playoff game in the history of Met Life Stadium, by the way). In other words, everything is coming up Giants, and all these things will result in their first playoff victory since Super Bowl XLII.
mj50's pick: New York
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) vs. Denver Broncos: Sunday- 3:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
This game was a pretty tough one for me to pick. On the one hand, Denver has lost three in a row and it looks like defenses have figured out how to shut down Tim Tebow throughout the game, and not just in the game's first fifty minutes. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is pretty depleted heading into this game, with an injured Ben Roethlisberger and safety Ryan Clark out for the game because playing in the Denver altitude might very well kill him. Plus, you know, "Tebow Magic" and all that brouhaha. I guess I chose Pittsburgh in the end because of their solid defense despite the loss of Clark, because of their playoff experience (something which the Broncos don't have...as much), and because I have a strange feeling that the Steelers running game will shine under the postseason pressure to match Denver's running game. But then again, if there's any predictions this week to be apprehensive about, it's this one.
mj50's pick: Denver
mj15 last week: 12-4
mj50 last week: 9-7
mj15 this season: 178-78 (a regular season personal best!)
mj50 this season: 172-81 (six games back; order has been temporarily restored)
And just for good measure (and because I have 75% less games to pick) here are some NFL related random thoughts to close out this column:
-So nice of the NFL to have all the #6/#3 seed games placed on Saturday. Makes it much more convenient for the four teams with a bye this week getting a better idea early as to who they're going to face next week.
- I've already mentioned this quite a few times on this blog, but I will say it again: for the 2011 regular season, if a tie weren't an option, then Aaron Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy over Drew Brees. Sure, Drew Brees threw for more yards in a single season than anyone in the history of the league. And, sure, Matt Flynn's 6 touchdown performance Sunday against the Lions didn't make a great case that, without Rodgers, the Packers would be terrible (like when Peyton Manning got injured this season). But you simply can't just deny the Packers QB and his very consistent play throughout the year the award just because Brees was more impressive towards the end of the season. Not only did Rodgers help lead his Packers team to a 13-0 record to start the season, he did so with statistics that were just as impressive as Brees's, including the NFL record in passer rating as well as 45 TDs and 4,643 yards on 155 fewer throwing attempts and with 8 less interceptions. If he was able to get 650 chances at throwing the ball this year instead of his 507, who know how much better of a year he would have had!
-Speaking of Matt Flynn, congratulations to Flynn for his performance this tremendous performance Sunday against the Lions. Expect to see a contract from the Redskins worth $20 million-$30 million more than you deserve this upcoming offseason.
-I think the path has been fully edged in stone for Peyton Manning departure from Indianapolis. Not only do the Colts now have the #1 pick to draft Andrew Luck and move on with the future, owner Jim Irsay has officially fired the Pollian family from the organization (a changing of the old guard for the franchise). Besides, there's no way that they're going to spend $28 million on Manning for 2012 and another $20 million or so for Luck. That's just too much damn money for one position on a team with many flaws outside of the QB position. At this point, it's just a matter of when they're going to give up Manning and to which team they're going to give him to.
-No matter what happens to the Jets following their late season collapse, one thing is for certain: Mark Sanchez's days are numbered on that team. At this point, you could just get a sense that the team is starting to create an alternative plan to win a Super Bowl, and they've begun to realize that his inconsistent play is not part of the puzzle.
And that's going to do it for my wild card weekend picks! Be sure to stop by next week for our picks for the always exciting divisional round. In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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