Patriots QB Tom Brady will be playing his sixth career AFC Championship game this Sunday as he takes on the Ravens
After eighteen weeks, the NFL season is now officially entering its final two stops on their way to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI, and each of those stops should be a treat to watch. On one end, you have a classic matchup of great offense vs. great defense as Tom Brady and the Patriots take on Ray Lewis and the Ravens. On the other, it's a rematch of week 10 as the surprising 49ers take on the Giants. With that in mind, let's cut the chit-chat and go straight to the picks that you came here to see. As always, the starting game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (-7): Sunday- 2:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
Of the two games being played this week, this one was probably the hardest one to choose a winner, simply because there are just as many reasons for why Baltimore will win this game as there are for why New England will win this game. For starters, unlike the Patriots (who have surprisingly only won once against a team with an over .500 record, and that was last Saturday against Denver), this Ravens team has shown time and time again this year that they are able to matchup with the other big boys in the league and beat them, too. They've defeated the Texans twice. They've defeated the Steelers twice. They've defeated the Bengals twice, and they've even defeated San Francisco. Basically, if there's any team in the league with the confidence to go to Foxboro and defeat the Patriots, it would be Baltimore.
They've got an incredible defense and the better running back in Ray Rice. They have as much of a motivation to win as New England. They want to be able to prove that they could actually lead this type of team to a Super Bowl, and for all we know they might be trying to win this for Ray Lewis, who might retire at the end of this season. The Patriots are a much better matchup than the Texans were last week, as Houston had both a better running game than New England and a better defense. In fact, you could even argue that the Baltimore we saw last week are much worse than the one we saw last week, who were a bit off their game.
And yet, I'm still sticking with New England to win this game. Not only do they have the homefield advantage in this one (the Patriots have never lost an AFC Championship game at Foxboro), but they also have Tom Brady on their side, along with the dynamic tight end duo of Gronkowski and Hernandez. They have the offensive line to stop the Ravens front seven from putting pressure on Brady, and their defense looked pretty good enough last week that I wouldn't be surprised if they pull a 2006 Colts and play better than the defense of their opponent. On the other side of the ball, Ed Reed looked pretty beat up after last week's game and I'm a bit worried of the negative effect that it might have for Baltimore in this game. Finally, under such a big stage as this one will be, I just cannot trust Joe Flacco (arguably the worst playoff quarterback in the past decade) to play efficiently enough to lead his team to victory. But then again, this is the same postseason that saw Alex Smith outplay Drew Brees and Tim Tebow stomp all over the league's top rated passing defense two weeks ago, so anything is possible tomorrow afternoon.
mj50's pick: New England
New York Giants vs. San Francisco Giants (-2.5): Sunday- 5:30 p.m.
mj50's pick: New York
For the eight time in postseason history (tied for the record of meetings by the same team in the playoffs), the Giants and the 49ers clash in a matchup that will send the victor into Indianapolis for the Super Bowl. The 49ers, one of the years most consistently great teams, are coming off an exciting, last minute victory the Saints that saw Alex Smith look like the second coming of Steve Young and Joe Montana that the franchise had been waiting years for, and now are trying to give their city its first NFC Championship victory in seventeen seasons. The Giants, meanwhile, are riding two impressive victories against the Falcons and the 2010 champion Packers and are playing great football in their quest for a second Super Bowl appearance in five years.
Unlike the Ravens and the Patriots, both teams have originally met earlier in the season (also at Candlestick Park). San Francisco would go on to defeat New York in a close one, 27-20, in a game that's most famous today for Mario Manningham's wide open drop that could've tied it all up with three minutes left to play and 49ers defensive end Justin Smith batting down Eli Manning's fourth down pass with 40 seconds left to seal the deal for his team. A few days before that first matchup occurred, I (correctly) chose San Francisco to win that game over the Giants. Now, nearly ten weeks later, I've decided to switch my pick for the rematch and choose New York instead (even with San Francisco having a much better looking offense and a healthier overall roster).
The first reason is simple: they're the hotter team that's peaking in the exact right moment. I hate to bring up the whole "2007 vibe" that this Giants team has, as I'm sure you've probably already heard it from hundreds of other sportswriters and pundits when discussing them in the past month, but it really does feel like this team has done a great job of repeating the same formula that won them the championship four seasons ago. They're pass rush is fantastic (just look at how they handled Aaron Rodgers last week), they're clutch in the right moments (the fourth down stops by the defense against Atlanta, the Hail Mary against the Packers), and they're making fewer mistakes than their opponents. Two major difference between that 2007 team and this team, however, is that they actually won the division this year and their offense is actually playing much better, averaging 431 more yards and ten more points per game (with Eli Manning throwing nearly 300 yards and officially cementing himself into the group of premier NFL quarterbacks). If they can play the same style of football that they have since week 16 against the Jets and execute it flawlessly yet again, then I feel that they should be able to have upper hand in this battle.
The second reason lies in the 49ers victory last week over the Saints, their first playoff victory in over a week. That 49ers defense, one of the league's elite defenses the entire season, played terribly down the stretch. Despite intercepting the ball twice from Drew Brees, that defense still allowed the record-breaking passer to throw for 462 yards and four touchdowns, including two touchdowns in the final five minutes that would have cost their team the game had it not been for the heroics of their offense. This is not a good sign to have going up against a team that also features a great offense, yet a defense that's better and more likely to not slip up. Furthermore, Tom Coughlin has six career playoff victories on the road (second all time in NFL history behind the late, great Tom Landry). If there's any coach that is able to lead his team to a hostile environment and play their best football, he is absolutely one of them.
The weather is expected to be anything but pleasant in San Francisco tomorrow night, with a 100% chance of rain and winds expected to rise to about 20 mph. If history tells us anything, this game is poised to end up as a classic, a physical and hard fought matchup in ugly conditions between two teams equal in both their ideology and style of play. And I, for one, can't wait to see it all unfold.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
mj15 last week: 3-1 (6-2 in the postseason)
mj50 last week: 1-3 (4-4 in the postseason)
mj15 this season: 184-80
mj50 this season: 176-85
No random thoughts for me to write this week, which means that's going to do it for this week's NFL predictions column. Next week is the dreaded pre-Super Bowl bye week, which means there will be no game of importance to choose from. That said, be sure to stop by to this blog nonetheless to see what kind of fill-in column I made. Because there's no rush at all to post it next week, expect to see the column pop up a bit later than usual, by which I mean on either Saturday night or Sunday afternoon.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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