Happy Veterans Day, everyone! We will get to the picks in a moment. But first, since this is the final week that any team will get to have a bye and with the second half of this NFL season about to get underway, I think it's about time that we (and by we, I of course mean myself) here at the mj15 blog use this week's column to wrap up what has been a wild and fantastic first half of the season with a special NFL midseason report, featuring a recap and my opinions on some on the teams, players and moments who were some of the biggest and most memorable from the first nine week of the season. After all, if everyone else is doing it this week, then why not us? Let's get started.
The Teams
While the league has been known to be filled with parody from start to finish, this season has been especially filled with parody as there are no teams with fewer then two losses. Six teams are tied with the league's best record at 6-2 (New England, Baltimore, the Jets and Pittsburgh in the AFC; Atlanta and the Giants in the NFC) and nine teams have only three losses (Tennessee, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Chicago and Tampa Bay at 5-3; Green Bay and New Orleans at 6-3). In other words, there is not really one team that you can consider to be the best in the NFL at this moment. The same can be said in the race for the league's worst team. While Buffalo is the only winless team remaining at 0-8, you can make the case that three teams at 2-6 or 1-7 (Dallas, Carolina and Denver) are easily much worse then them.
The Surprises
Teams
The biggest surprises this season by far have been the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which have bounced back from two of the five worst teams last season to two teams at 5-3 and with a chance to make the playoffs. Speaking of teams in the AFC West, in Oakland the Raiders are looking as good as they have been in years thanks to their 3 game win streak that has put them in in a tie for first place (wins wise) in the AFC West. These have been the good surprises.
In the bad suprises department, you have the Cowboys and the Vikings who, after winning their respective divisions last season, have been off to very disappointing starts with the Vikings at 3-5 and the Cowboys, in what was supposed to be a dream season with the Super Bowl playing in their home turf, at 1-7. The 49ers, who many people predicted would win the NFC West this season, are 2-6 and the Bengals, who were predicted to contend for the AFC North, are last place in their division at 2-6 as well. Speaking of surprises, if I had told you before the season that the Chargers would enter the tenth week of the season with the league's best ranked offense and the second best ranked defenses, what would you think their record would be at this point? 6-2? 5-3? Well, thanks mostly to their awful special teams and there ability to make dumb decisions at the wrong times, they are 4-4. Now that's surprising!
Players
One of the most pleasant surprises of the season has been the resurrection of QB Michael Vick in Philadelphia. Coming into the season with the role of Kevin Kolb's backup, the man who missed two years in the league in jail became the Eagles starting QB after Kolb suffered a concussion and in the short amount of time he has played (he missed four games due to an injury of his own) some really great football (so much so that some people proclaimed him the league's MVP at some point). In Denver, WR Brandon Lloyd and QB Kyle Orton are having career years despite the 2-6 record of the Broncos, with Lloyd leading the league in receiving yards and Orton third in the league in passing. Finally, though it's not a big surprise considering that he's playing behind one of the league's best O-line, it's still a mild surprise nonetheless that LaDainian Tomlinson has bounced back from his last two years in San Diego (which were a letdown) to a great start as a New York Jet.
MVP Watch
The NFL's MVP race is as close as it has ever been with at least ten to fifteen players that you can make the case to be in the hunt. So instead of doing a top ten or a top five like I did for most of last season, I'm going to instead break these contenders down to three groups: the leading contenders, the second tier and the dark horses, in no particular order.
The Leading Contenders
-Peyton Manning- Colts QB. The two time defending MVP from '08 and '09 continues to show his greatness in the regular season once again.
-Tom Brady- Patriots QB. Anytime the Patriots are good, you have to automatically list him as the main reason why.
-Phillip Rivers- Chargers QB. He's leading the league's best offense and is on pace to break Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season. His team is 4-5 right now, but if the Chargers make another great second half run to the postseason, expect him to be up for much major consideration then he is right now.
-Roddy White- Falcons WR. Argaubly the best WR in the league's this season, White is ranked in the top three this season in in total yards, yards per game and receptions. He's also Atlanta's most dynamic player and one of the main reasons why they are 6-2 at the moment.
-Eli Manning- Giants QB. It's no coincidence that, at the same time he is on pace to have his best season statistically in his whole career, the team is tied for the league's best record at 6-2.
The Second Tier
-Clay Matthews- Packers LB. Not only is he the league's front-runner for defensive player of the year with 10.5 sacks through nine games, but he's also helped Green Bay cope tremendously with their myriad of injuries and lead's the Packers defense to giving up the second least points per game this season.
- Arian Foster- Houston RB. Leading the league with nearly 900 yards rushing so far, this rookie from Tennessee has given the Texans something they have never had before: a very solid running game.
- LaDainian Tomlinson- Jets RB. This man hasn't been reading the defense, side stepping, catching the ball an waving to his momma this good in years.
-Chris Johnson- Titans RB. You know you're a great RB when you're on pace for 1,400 yards and 16 TDs and that is considered an off year.
-Michael Vick- Eagles QB. Before he got injured, many people started to call him the early season MVP. Now that's he back and has picked up right where he left off last Sunday against the Colts (218 yards and 1 TD passing, 74 yards and another TD rushing), he's already right back into the mix.
The Dark Horses
-Ben Roethlisberger- Steelers QB. He's improved his team's passing game from ranked dead last in the league to 27th and has put up big numbers since his return in week 6.
- Aaron Rodgers- Packers QB. This preseason MVP candidate is still producing numbers that is keeping him among the pantheon of current NFL QBs.
- Darren McFadden- Raiders RB. After two disappointing seasons to start his career, the third year rusher from Arkansas is producing monstrous numbers (108 yards per game, 757 yards 19.9 attempts per game, 4 TDs), including three games in a row in which he has rushed for 89 yards or more per game and 3 TDs. Basically, he is once of the big reasons why the Raiders are relevant in this league at the moment.
-Drew Brees-Saints QB. Do I really need to say why?
- Antonio Gates- Chargers TE. Whether his fantastic start has been because of his talents or Phillip Rivers is uncertain. What is certain is that Gates has been playing like not only the best TE in the game, but one of the best receivers in the game period.
Miscellaneous
-The worst division in football right now is by far the NFC West. It's the only division right now with the team on top not having an over .500 record, and its the only division in the league where a team like the 2-6 49ers can still come back with a good second half and still win it. As for the league's best division, I'm going to go with a tie between the southern divisions of both conferences, as each of them have at least two teams at 5-3 or better and have at least three teams that are over .500. So for this season at least it appears that college teams aren't the only type of football team that have been playing fantastic in the South.
- Out of all of the rookies who have come into the league this season, none have played as well as Arian Foster in Houston. He leads the entire league in rushing and started his career off with one of the best NFL debuts in recent memory, rushing 33 times against Indy for 231 yards and 3 TDs. Speaking of rookies, another first year player that has been impressive was coincidentally also the first one to be taken in the April draft: Sam Bradford, who has been playing just enough to help lead St. Louis to a tie in the NFC West division.
- If you want to know how big special teams are to this sport, just look at this 2010 NFL season. As mentioned earlier, San Diego has one of the league's best offense and defense yet thanks to their awful special teams that has allowed five blocked punts (two went in for a TD) and two kick returns, the team is at a poor 4-4 start. Also, is it just me or does there seem to be at least two or more kick returns per week this season?
- Only one coach has been fired this season, and that was Wade Phillips, who was fired this past Monday by Dallas. So say goodbye to this face ,America, because you won't see it on an NFL sideline for sometime.
- And the award for biggest insult to the intelligence of the average football fan goes to Washington coach Mike Shanahan for saying in a press conference after his team's week 8 loss to Detroit that he Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman at QB in the final two minutes because he felt that Grossman was a better QB in the two minute warning. Not only is that a false statement, but since Washington had a bye after that game it began two weeks of pointless QB controversy talk in the media about whether Grossman would be the starting QB for the Redskins for the next game (which he won't be unless McNabb gets injured somehow in the next three days before the game). Good try, coach, but you would have been better off just saying the truth after the game (whatever it was).
-In last year's midseason report I mentioned at how the NFL was receiving record ratings in 2009. Well, just when you think the ratings couldn't get better than last year it actually has in 2010 with more and more people watching the NFL as the year goes on, and should continue to grow. So much people are watching the NFL these days that a regular season Sunday night game actually beat a World Series game in ratings! This begs the question: how high can the NFL possibly get? 60 million for a playoff game? 40 million for a game on cable? 110 million watching the Super Bowl? Well, if the NFL doesn't get into a lockout next season, that could very well be a possibility.
- In the fantasy football department, Phillip Rivers, Arian Foster, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson lead the way in points according to ESPN.com. The next five best are Kyle Orton, Drew Brees, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson and, in a surprise, Peyton Hillis. Hillis, in case you don't know, what traded from Denver to Cleveland in the offseason in exhange for QB Brady Quinn. Since then, Hillis has been producing great numbers for Cleveland while the Broncos have yet to play Quinn this season and are missing Hillis greatly (ranked dead last in the league in rushing without him). So, I guess it's safe to say that the trade between those two teams in March has turned out to be one of the most one-sided trades in NFL history since the Patriots got Moss in the '07 draft for a 4th rounder.
- Now that I think about it, this midseason report was probably pointless. I should have just spent this column bitching about Lovie Smith like I originally wanted to.
I think that I've said just about enough at this point. Now, let's get onto the picks! To recap week 9, I guess you could say that it was some kind of a good news/bad news type of week. The good news is that I had one of my best weeks in a while with an 8-5 record. The bad news is that it wasn't enough to beat mj50 who had an even better week 9 then me going 9-4 in picks. But I guess that's the price I pay for thinking that that was going to the week of a million upsets. Now, week 10 is upon us which means that there are new games on the schedule to pick (14 to be exact). The following are mj50's picks and my picks for week 10 of the 2010 NFL season. As always, the game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1): Thursday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
So, by sheer luck, the NFL Network kicks off their Thursday Night schedule with the 6-2 Ravens go to the Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons, also 6-2. Not only could this very well be a possible Super Bowl preview, but it's also a terrific matchup of two almost identical teams from different conferences. Both have the top two QBs to be taken in the 2008 draft (Ryan was taken #3 overall, Flacco was taken #18 overall), two of the league's top ten defenses, a great running game, third year first time head coaches, and #1 receivers that are easily two of the league's ten or fifteen best at the moment. So because both teams are so equal on paper, I've decided on Atlanta because of their status as the game's home team. And, man, have they been great at home in the Matt Ryan-Matt Smith era! Since 2008, the team has been 17-3 at the Georgia Dome including a perfect 4-0 record in 2010.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Chicago Bears: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Minnesota
There are certain players that you hate, even somewhat fear, to see your team play against just because you know that they can single handily win the game for their team through the great talent, physical ability and past performances. For Bears fans everywhere, that man since October 2007 has been Adrian Peterson, who has proven time and time again since his incredible 224 yards and 3 TD (plus that really huge kick return for them at the end of the 4th quarter in a tie game that set up Ryan Longwell's game winning field goal for Minnesota. Yes, I am still pretty bitter.) first game against them in his rookie season that he can be a Bears killer if he wants to. In six games so far against Chicago, Peterson has rushed for 733 yards and 11 TDs. That's an average of 122 yards and at least 1 TD! I know that the Bears are third in rushing defense (one of the few areas where they have been fantastic along with special teams), but I don't see them stopping a guy who is on pace to have one of his best seasons yet. Oh, and the Bears O-line is still terrible. I see Jared Allen and the Williams Bros. having a great day pressuring Cutler.
mj50's pick: Chicago
New York Jets (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
You know what the best part was about Cleveland's win last week over New England? It brought back one of the best moments from the NFL from the last five years: Bill Belichick shaking hands with Eric Mangini after the game. Seeing the awkwardness and the poor sportsmanship of cranky old Belichick every time he lost to his former offensive coordinator and had to greet with him after the game like this past Sunday was like watching one of your favorite episodes of a TV show after not watching it for three or more years.
Anyways, I picked the Jets simply because I just can't grip the possibility that the Browns could beat the Saints, the Patriots and New York in three consecutive weeks. I just can't. If they do win, then I will apologize to the Browns and to their fans for doubting them, and move on. But for now, I'm still going to stick to my pointless stubbornness.
mj50's pick: New York
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
This is the type of game that Tampa can win (at home against a under .500 team with Jimmy Clausen as their QB). Speaking of Tampa, did you know that if they find a way to win this division they will become the sixth NFC South team in the last seven seasons to make it to the playoffs a year after they finished last in the division. In the words of the immortal D'Andre Cole, what's up with that?
mj50's pick: Tampa Bay
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Miami Dolphins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
It's the return of Chad f**** Pennington! How exciting! Anyways, he and Moss are the two main reasons I am taking the Titans to win this one. Pennington because it's been well over a year since he suffered that injury of his that was supposed to be career threatening and Moss because this is the first time that Vince Young will have a wide receiver as good to throw to as him in Tennessee and the first time that Jeff Fisher will coach a WR as talented as he is. Expect to see the Titans #84 to be thrown to often and have a significant impact (in a positive way) on the Titans as this game picks up.
mj50's pick: Tennessee
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
You can mock T.O. this season all you want, but this guy still has it. Halfway through the season, this 36 year old is 3rd in the league in receiving yards, T-4 in receiving TD catches with 7, 3rd in receiving yards per game, 3rd in receptions and is on pace for 1,400 yards for the season. Unfortunately for him, the rest of his team has not been doing well as Cincinnati is off to a disappointing 2-6 start. And after this week, I have a strong feeling that they will be 2-7. Cincy has given up an average of 24 points per contest and feature a middle of the pack defense. Indy's offense, meanwhile, is in he top five in almost every major category except for rushing (obviously) including an average of 300 yards per game passing from Manning. They are also 16-1 in their last seventeen games at Lucas Oil Stadium, and are undefeated against Carson Palmer. But a terrific start nonetheless for a guy that many thought would just play Robin to Chad Ochocinco's Batman.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Buffalo
In the past three games the Bills have played three teams with three losses or fewer and have lost all of them by three points, two of which happened in overtime. If they can be that competitive, imagine how they should be against the Lions who are once again without Matthew Stafford and his paper clipped right shoulder that gotten him on the injury list three times in the last year. Besides, a team this good (and by "this good," I mean "not horrible") has to win a game at some point...right?
mj50's pick: Buffalo
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
This should be another great game from the new best division in football (the AFC South). Besides this beating a matchup of fierce rivals that are both 4-4, both teams have defenses that can't defend the pass to save their lives (so it should be a nice back and forth battle between Matt Schaub and David Garrard), should feature two of the league's top 15 running backs, and it's being called on CBS by Gus Johnson who has been on a roll calling some great games lately. I've decided on going with Houston because they have the better front seven than the Jags, so Arian Foster should do a better job rushing the football then MJD. Otherwise, this game is just one of those where you don't really want to pick because both teams are so evenly matched but I have to because I have no choice.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
HALFTIME! You guys like "Flight of the Conchords" right?
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Denver Broncos: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Kansas City
How can I go against a team that is 1st in rushing offense and 9th in rushing defense when they're taking on a team that is dead last in rushing offense and next to dead last in rushing defense? Well?
mj50's pick: Kansas City
St. Louis Rams vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-6): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
This is the 7th time that San Fran comes into the game as the odds-on favorite to win, this time against a Rams team that is tied for the NFC West lead. They are currently 2-4 as that favorite to win. What Vegas sees in this team is something that I simply can't understand.
mj50's pick: St. Louis
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (-14): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
In the 2008 offseason, then Cowboys offensive coordinator was offered by the Baltimore Ravens to be their next head coach after a year in which the Cowboys offense was arguably the secopnd best that year behind (obviously) the Patriots. He decided to decline that head coaching position and instead accepted his new position of assistant head coach for Dallas and a $3 million per year contract extension, making him the highest paid assistant coach in the league, in hopes that one day the Cowboys will have a disappointing season that will make Jerry Jones hire Wade Phillips and make him the team's new coach. Well this past week, it finally happened. The Cowboys got beat down by the Packers, losing 45-7, to start the season 1-7, Wade Phillips got fired and Garrett got promoted to head coach. Your dream has finally come true, Garrett. Now, let's see how you will finally deal with the pressure.
mj50's pick: New York
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Arizona
It's another battle for the pathetic NFC West! On one corner, you have the 4-4 Seahawks who are coming off a franchise record loss to the Giants. On the other corner you have the Cardinals, who were leading the Vikings by 14 points with 4:40 to go in the 4th quarter and still lost to them by three. How exciting! Sarcasm aside, this is a simply horrible game to try to pick. Both teams are bad on defense (with Seattle as the league's 27th best and Arizona as the league's 30th best), horrible on offense and are coming off horrible losses. I've finally decided on the Cardinals because they, like the Seahawks, are a much better home team (2-1, which their only loss being a 3 point one), then they are a road team (1-4). Seattle, meanwhile, is 1-3 on the road and have yet to win at University of Phoenix Stadium. How sure am I at this pick, though? Not very.
mj50's pick: Arizona
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
This is the first of five great AFC matchups to take place in the next five weeks, with the AFC East co-leading Patriots taking on the AFC north co-leading Steelers. Now, while Tom Brady may have only lost once in his entire career to Pittsburgh (back in the 2004 regular season) and New England has the better offense than Pittsburgh, it has been the team with the better defense and the home field advantage that has won every time these two teams have met this past decade. That is what Pittsburgh has going for them, and it's precisely why I'm taking them to win what should be an exciting game to watch.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Washington Redskins: Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
The main reason the Redskins won that first game against the Eagles this season was not because of McNabb, not because of the defense (though it did help), but because of Michael Vick's injury that he suffered in the middle of that game. Before the injury he suffered at the end of the first, Vick was 5 for 7 and 49 yards passing with an additional 17 yards rushing. Had he stayed in the game and Kevin Kolb, who I'm pretty sure was not expecting to play in that game, hadn't filled his QB spot, I'm confident that the Eagles would have found a way to come back from the 14-0 deficit and win that game which they only lost by 5 points. Now, Vick is back to try to finish where he left off in that week 4 game, and if he can outperform Peyton Manning like he did last week, then I'm pretty confident that he can outperform McNabb and lead Philly to their second straight victory.
While I'm at it, here's CBS footage of the gigantic behemith known as the 13 year old Andy Reid from last Sunday:
By God, he's HUUUGE! I wonder if young Andy Reid also didn't know how to run proper clock management.
mj50's pick: Washington
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Indianapolis over Cincinnati
The Zenyatta losing last Saturday's Breeders Cup Classic Upset of the Week: St. Louis over San Fransisco
The Lee Westwood vs. Martin Kaymer "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Arizona over Seattle
As I mentioned on the last NFL picks post, this column will now be posted every Wednesday or Thursday until week 17 or so due to the start of Thursday Night football, so don't forget. Otherwise, enjoy watching the games, everyone. Last week was an exceptional week in watching the NFL with three overtime games and four other games being decided in regulation by six points or less. Let's hope that this week's games can be as good, if not better than week 9.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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