Earlier this week, NBA commissioner David Stern announced that the NBA lockout will cause the league to miss it's first two weeks of the season, with more missed games most likely soon to be announced later. The reaction to this compared to, say, had the NFL lockout announced miss games has been quite interesting, and a reason to why football is truly America's Game. Had the NFL announced missed regular season game as a result of their lockout, the entire country would have reacted with anger. With the NBA lockout, it seems that only die-hard NBA fans reacted with fierce anger while the rest of America was just too busy caring about pro and college football to care.
Now that I have that observation out of the way, let's get right down to the picks. Last week was another good week for myself, as I finished it with a 10-3 record (mj50 finished 8-8). That's two straight double-digit wins week. Will my recent luck continue? That will be determined in the next two to three days. But first, here are my week 6 picks to give you an idea on how I think it's going to play out. As always, game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions (-4): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
Who would thought a month and a half ago that we would be talking about a matchup between the 49ers and the Lions as the Game of the Week, as if it was 1993 all over again? But, with Detroit entering the game undefeated and the 49ers entering it 4-1, that appears to be just the case. The defense of the 49ers, along with QB Alex Smith, who is playing one of his most efficient stretches of football ever (104.1 passer rating, only 1 INT in 126 attempts), have been impressive. However, I just can't go against Detroit, not after how their performance Monday Night, and not with Matthew Stafford being injury free and willing to throw to Calvin Johnson deep multiple times a game. But, then again, I've picked against the 49ers three times already this season, and twice they've proven me wrong, so what do I know?
mj50's pick: Detroit
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4): Sunday-12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Because Cam Newton will gain another great game offensively, and we all know what the Panthers record is when that happens.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
Cincinnati leads the league in defense with the fewest yards allowed. That is by far the most surprising thing to me about these first five weeks of the season; more than the Lions undefeated record, more than the Eagles and the Jets both at 1-4, more than Alex Smith playing like the quarterback he was supposed to be when he was drafted as the #1 pick in the 2005 draft.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-14): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
Last week, the Packers found themselves down 14 points and without their two starting offensive tackles, and they still ended up winning! Unless Stephen Jackson has rush for 30 or more times a game and have a performance similar to the one that Adrian Peterson had last week against the Cardinals, I absolutely do not see the Rams ending Green Bay's undefeated season.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Buffalo
Screw it, I'm hopping onto the Buffalo bandwagon. The Giants defense has given up, on average, over 100 yards per game in the last three games, and expect them to have problems once again facing the NFL's 3rd leading rusher, Fred Jackson. New York is also experiencing some notable injury problems to players like Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs while Buffalo's defense (who lead the league in interceptions) is good enough to give Eli Manning trouble.
mj50's pick: New York
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-12): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
Consider last week's Tennessee beatdown to be Pittsburgh "See, We've Still Got It" game. Coming off a close loss to Houston and injuries galore, and yet they still managed to beat Tennessee by three touchdowns. Now, they're staying at home, this time playing the NFL's 32nd ranked offense. Expect the Steelers to get their first win streak of the season this weekend.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Eagles (-2) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Washington
The key to the takedown of Philly's prematurely self-proclaimed "Dream Team" has been, without a down, their defense (their offense has averaged 25 points per game and is ranked in the top ten in all major team categories, including first in rushing). For starters, defensive coordinator Juan Castillo, who was never qualified to get the position in the first place after spending years as a mediocre offensive line coach, never really utilized what he had properly. For example, his two best corners (Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel) are great man-to-man coverage players, but for reasons only known to the team they've decided to put him in zone coverage. In addition, his Wide Nine defense, hasn't worked as he never really had the right personnel to make it work efficiently. This lack of players to make it work has allowed the opposing offenses to abuse it by running ball on it quite effectively (the Eagles are currently allowing 5 yards per carry rushing, ranked 30th in the league).
It is for this very defense (which, if they lose, I think will get replaced during their bye week with Reid firing Castillo) that I think Philadelphia will lose yet again. The duo of Ryan Torrain and Tim Hightower have been doing quite well rushing wise, running for over 120 yards per game. Consider how Philadelphia has allowed big games to running backs like Michael Turner, Frank Gore, and Fred Jackson this season, I doubt that they will stop this rushing game. On the other side of the ball, the Redskins defense have had two weeks to prepare for Michael Vick and that Eagles offense. Expect them to be motivated to get revenge on the team that gained 59 points in their last meeting at FedEx Field.
Last week, I said that the Eagles would find their groove back, and I was wrong. This week, I have them struggling some more. Selfishly, I hope I get it right this time.
mj50's pick: Washington
HALFTIME! This week's comedy clips comes to you directly from deadpan delivery extraordinaire Stephen Wright during his 2009 performance on Letterman. Take it away, Stephen!
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-8): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Great defense at home over good offense on the road every time. Simple as that.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders (-6.5): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
What can I say? Over 27 points per game, 2nd in the league in rushing, and a relatively easy schedule for the next eight weeks (vs. Cleveland, vs. Kansas City, vs. Denver, at Minnesota, vs. Chicago, at Miami). The Oakland Raiders are back, baby!
mj50's pick: Cleveland
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots (-6.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
Cowboys defensive end Kenyon Coleman stated earlier this week that his defense, led by defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, was going to throw "pretty much the kitchen sink, to put it lightly." The last time a team did such a thing during their game against New England was the Cleveland Browns last season, also led by Rob Ryan, and they ended up winning 34-14 (one of the Patriots' three losses that year). While this does make it pretty tempting to pick the Cowboys, I'm still going with the Patriots. Tom Brady hasn't lost a regular season game in Foxboro since 2006, and Tony Romo still remains that wild card that you're always afraid to trust in big games (see: week 1 vs. the Jets and week 4 vs. Detroit). Look for New England to improve to 5-1 (that is, unless you see them eating fried chicken and drinking beer during the game, at which point you must SWITCH IMMEDIATELY).
mj50's pick: New England
New Orleans Saints (-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
There are just three offenses that I simply can not pick against these days unless there's a really good case otherwise. One of those offenses belongs to New Orleans (the other two belong to Green Bay and New England). As San Francisco showed last week in their 48-3 victory, Tampa's defense isn't that hard to pick apart.
mj50's pick: Tampa Bay
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5): Sunday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Minnesota
...but not because of all of the inconvenient penalties and poor play they had last week (though it is nervous as a fan of the team to have a player in Kellen Davis that has as much catches this season as false start penalties). The Bears defense is ranked 28th in rushing defense. This stat is not good leading up to a game where they're facing a running back in Adrian Peterson coming off a 122 yard, 3 TD game and who, career wise, has averaged for 112 yards and over 1 TD against Chicago career-wise (that is, if Leslie Frazier is smart enough to go that route and not the route he had through weeks 1-4). Also, in any matchup against NFL sack leader Jared Allen and one of the NFL's worst offensive line, I'm going to have to go with Allen every single time.
mj50's pick: Chicago (Note: mj50 is 5-0 this season in picking Bears games. Just saying.)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-7): Monday- 7:35 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
The Jets are 1-4, and it seems that none of what they're doing (both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball) seems to be working. That said, they're at home, and they're facing a winless Dolphins team with Matt Moore as their starting quarterback. In other words, they should be fine.
mj50's pick: New York
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Green Bay over St. Louis
The Y.E. Yang over Tiger Woods at the '09 PGA Championship Upset of the Week: Minnesota over Chicago
The "Breaking Bad" vs. "The Wire" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Atlanta over Carolina
Be sure to stop by next week for my week 6 results and for my week 7 picks. Until then, have a wonderful weekend watching some glorious football.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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