Whoo hoo! Week 14, the start of the final quarter of the NFL, is upon us! I love these final four weeks of the NFL season because it's the time of the year where playoff spots finally become clinched, MVP candidates make their final cases to receive their award, the first snow games take place, the fantasy football playoff takes place (unless you aren't in which, in which case it sucks), and the league's worst teams start to either play spoiler or tank games to get better playoff positions. It's the NFL at its finest! So no time to bore you with my pointless monologue (I was thinking of writing some type of humorous playoff picture but after reading Mike Tunisons' on Kissing Suzy Kolber, it would be pointless to try to top it). Let's just get straight to the picks!
Week 13 recap:
mj15- 13-3 (Best week of the season! I'm so proud of myself!)
mj50- 10-6
2010 season total so far:
mj15- 118-74
mj50- 103-89
Let's begin (note: all game times are based on the Central time zone):
Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Tennessee Titans: Thursday- 7:20p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
To me, the Colts losing streak as well as Peyton Manning's recent struggles (11 INTs in the last three weeks) are pretty simple: their offense is becoming too predictable. Their rushing offense is awful while they're passing offense is terrific, so there's a good chance that Indy's offense will decide to use their advantage offensively and call a pass play 40-45 times per game. The defenses realize this, prepare for a passing play to occur, which has been a results in all these INTs and pick sixes from happening. Speaking of pick sixes, the fact that an opposing intercepted a Manning pass and ran it for a TD on the same play may seem to indicate that the Colts playbook is becoming one of the easiest for defenses to learn and prepare for in the entire league. My solution: simply have the offense call much more rushing plays then usual, even when the most likely thing for the team to do would be for them to pass in that situation. Who knows, it just might work.
The same thing can be said for the struggle of Chris Johnson in these past two weeks. Teams have a much tougher time preparing for the Titans with the athletic and explosive Vince Young at QB or, in the case of his terrific rookie season in '08, have another running back like LenDale White to deal with. Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith under center for Tennessee is a whole 'nother story. Defenses are now less afraid of Tennessee's passing attack and instead of backing off the line of scrimmage (giving Johnson room to run) like they usually do, they line up close to the run ready for Mr. 2,000 yards (also, it doesn't really help that the Titans keep lining up with 9 or 10 men in the box instead of, I don't know, throwing it to that Moss guy that they got nearly a month ago). Solution: Just throw the damn ball better. It worked in '09 and in the first half of '10, and it should work again.
By the way, am I only pointing these two things about just because I have both Manning and Johnson on my fantasy team that is playing a semifinal playoff game this week? Most definetly!
Anyways, I think that in this case of good passing team and bad running team vs. bad passing team and good running team, that the good passing team usually prevails (especially is Tennessee is ranked 24th in yards allowed). The Colts are bad in passing defense, but they are also good in passing defense, so expect the recent struggles by Kerry Collins to continue again this week. Conclusion? Colts win, Manning and Johnson rebound in a way, and I start my semifinal fantasy game with a 30 or more point lead. Hopefully.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
For half of the second quarter last Sunday, I was watching the Bears-Lions game without the Fox Box. You know the old saying "You don't how what you get 'till its gone"? That's how I, as someone who has no recollection of watching sports games without electronic scoreboards on the screen, it was awful watching the game without knowing how much time it was left. Anyways, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 305 yards and 2.8 TDs in his five career games against the Lions while Detroit has lost twenty straight NFC North divisional matchups. Do I really need to give another explanation?
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
Because Jacksonville is on FIYAH! Winners of four out of their last five, Mauric Jones-Drew is arguably playing better than any other RB in the league right now, Garrard is playing well enough to not mess things up, crowds are actually coming to their home games, and (most improtantly) they have solo possession of the AFC South lead! Looks like the move to Los Angeles will have to wait for a little while. Oh yea, and because of the Mike Greenberg theory.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
The streak continues! Tampa against over .500 teams: 0-5. Tampa against under .500 teams: 7-0. I keep telling you, it's the surest thing in sports right now. In an unrelated note, the antics of Albert Haynesworth these past few months have been fascinating to watch, especially with the news of today's climactic suspension. Apparently, it's okay for him to go out drinking the Thursday before a game and missing practice the next day, but change the defense's scheme to a 3-4 and all hell breaks loose? Amazing.
mj50's pick: Washington
Atlanta Falcons (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Carolina
So, you're the Carolina Panthers. You're 1-11 with the league's worst record and have three two loss teams battling you for the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Actually winning a game is just suicide at this point, isn't it?
mj50's pick: Atlanta
New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
First of all, let's get this out of the way: Brett Favre IS going to start the game, even if his back was exploded by Arthur Moats last week. After all, he only has four weeks left in his career (which is definitely going to be his last, thankfully), the team is out of the playoff contention, so the possibility of ending his Hall of Fame career knowing that he started in every possible NFL regular season game from '93-'10 is the only thing that he has left to play for, and Leslie Frazier doesn't have the balls to actually bench him for this game. Second, while the Frazier has started out with a comfortable 2-0 start, it should end this week vs. the Giants. New York is playing too good right now to lose to a team like the 2010 Vikings. Besides, Eli Manning has to eventually have some good against Minnesota, right?
UPDATE (12/13): Turns out I was pleasantly wrong about Favre. Apparently, hisego is thankfully is not so big as we thought in that he would risk playing with all parts of his body damaged. According to ESPN.com, Favre is ruled out for the game and might not play for the rest of the season, if not ever, depending on how well Tavaris Jackson plays vs. New York. The 297 consecutive regular season starts streak is over. Also, the game will be played tonight at 7:20 p.m. in Detroit thanks to the 20 inch snowfall in Minneapolis and the Metrodome collapsing. Whodathunkit, am I right?
mj50's pick: Minnesota
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills (-1): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cleveland
Peyton Hillis vs. the league's worst ranked rushing defense= too tantalizing to go against. Besides, the Browns have already won two straight with Jake Delholmme as QB. What makes you think that it won't happen again against the 2-10 Bills fighting more for a good draft spot.
mj50's pick: Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-9): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger played the Baltimore game with 35 degree temperatures, strong winds, a sprained leg and later a broken nose, and he still managed to lead the Steelers to victory and first place in the AFC North. What makes you think that he can be stopped by a Cincinnati team whose defensive linemen are too stupid to realize that the opposing team are "going for it" on fourth down when they're, in fact, just running the "No-Brainer Freeze," in which you run down the clock hoping that the opposing defense commits on offsides penalty (looking at you, Pat Sims)?
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
HALFTIME! This week, it's the hilarious yet awfully under appreciated Patton Oswalt talking about his most hated holiday song, "Christmas Shoes." Enjoy.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-4.5): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Fransisco
For their homefield advantage, I suppose. It's getting really difficult to pick an NFC West game with two teams that aren't the Cardinals. Troy Smith is back to being benched in favor of Alex Smith. I wonder if Jemele Hill will respond to this with another column saying that race was an issue (like this in this column).
mj50's pick: San Fransisco
St. Louis Rams vs. New Orleans Saints (-9): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
This game should be closer than the odds tend to indicate since the defending champs have had a habit this season of underestimating mediocre teams resulting in either a loss or a close victory (see: the Panthers game in September, the Browns game and last week's Bengals game). However, I do believe that the Saints will come out of the game as the victor. St. Louis is like a minor team compared to these 9-3 Saints (even though they could also play in the playoffs come January).
mj50's pick: New Orleans
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-5.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
I wouldn't even think of facing a Rex Ryan team a week after they embarrassed themselves on national television by losing a divisional rival 45-3. Sorry, Chad Henne.
mj50's pick: Miami
Denver Broncos (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Denver
Eric Studesville is taking over as the Broncos interim head coach after the team fired Josh McDaniels this past Monday night. This season, the other two interim head coaches this season (Jason Garett and Leslie Frazier) have won their first game, so there's obviously some nice pattern going on. Second, Denver has at least one thing going for them (the passing game) while Arizona has nothing going for them except for Larry Fitzgerald, but he will probably get shut out again with Champ Bailey defending him (plus, they have a 25th ranked passing defense, which helps that great Denver passing game I just mentioned). Third, the Cardinals are starting John F***** Skelton this week. I'm guessing having Matt Leinart on the team doesn't sound like such a bad idea all of a sudden.
mj50's pick: Arizona
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers (-7): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Last time these two teams met (week 1), the favored San Diego Chargers underestimated the Chiefs and the rushing game, which resulted in a 17-14 loss. I have a feeling that, trailing KC by two games with four more weeks to play, this Chargers team will be ready and will come out of the game as the victor. But, then again, they could just underachieve like they have been most of this season, so I'm not 100% confident on this pick.
mj50's pick: Kansas City
New England Patriots (-3) vs. Chicago Bears: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
Maybe it's because I've been slightly brainwashed by the local Chicago sports media, but I do think that the Bears will win this game, if not keep it close throughout. After all, the Patriots are coming off a 45-3 win in a key divisional rivalry game on Monday Night, so this matchup against a team from another conference will not mean as much (after all, they already have wins vs. Baltimore, vs. Indy, vs. the Jets and at Pittsburgh. How better can you get then that?). Meanwhile, the Bears are playing a game in which they will try to show that they should be considered a serious playoff contender. The Patriots have also lost their two games all on the road while Jay Cutler has played really well these past five games. But I'm superstitious, so screw you!
mj50's pick: Chicago
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
That's right, I'm taking the upset! The Cowboys are undefeated in two previous meetings vs. Philadelphia in the new Cowboys Stadium, and have been on a roll with Jason Garrett as head coach with a 3-1 start (4-0 had it not been for Roy Williams' critical fumble on Thanksgiving) while averaging about 31 points per game in the process and the players finally playing the games like they care all of a sudden. Plus, they're running the ball much better under Garrett. I expect to see this mini-Era of Good Feelings to continue this Sunday in a classic matchup of team with nothing to play for against a team with everything to play more (even though, I do believe that Vick will still have another great game since, you know, he can't be stopped).
mj50's pick: Dallas
Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Houston Texans: Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Joe Flacco may make those occasional stupid mistakes and interceptions time and time again, but over the last few weeks he has actually played pretty decently, with at least 266 yards, an average of about 285 yards per game and 4 TDs since week 11. Expect him (and the entire Ravens receiving corps, really) to have a great game against the notably atrocious Houston secondary.
mj50's pick: Houston
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Atlanta over Carolina
The Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson Upset of the Week: Dallas over Philadelphia
The 2009 Colts vs. 2010 Patriots "I'm Not Sure" Pick: New England over Chicago
Week 14 recap and week 15 picks to come next Thursday. Enjoy these week's great games, everyone.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
No comments:
Post a Comment