So, this is it: the regular season finale of the 2010 NFL season. Week 17. For many teams, this marks the end of a disappointing year. For others, however, it marks the beginning of a brand new, more exciting second season as they prepare for the postseason. And then there are the few teams that are still in the playoff bubble, looking for a win and maybe some help in hopes of being among the twelve teams to enter the playoff race, but there's only about 5 or 6 of them this season as most of the playoff spots have been clinched. Week 17 also marks the end of many weekly establishments, including most notably fantasy football, NFL RedZone, Gus Johnson calling the games, making fun of Brett Favre and any other thing that I mentioned in last year's week 17 column. Now, before I get to the actual game picking, here are some things to watch out for as you are watching these final sixteen games of the NFL regular season:
NFC Playoff Scenarios:
Currently, four out of the six playoff spots have been filled, with the NFC North champion Chicago Bears clinching the conference's #2 seed and the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagels clinching the conference's #3 seed. Howeverhte question of who will be the NFC's #1 seed and who will get the final two spots has yet to be answered. Here are the list of teams whose fate have yet to be decided and what they are fighting for this week:
-Atlanta Falcons (12-3): in the playoffs, need a win to clinch the NFC South and the NFC's #1 seed).
- New Orleans Saints (11-4): in the playoffs, need a win and an Atlanta loss to clinch the NFC South and the NFC's #1 seed).
- St. Louis (7-8) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-9): play each other this week, winner gets a playoff spot and the NFC West crown.
-Green Bay Packers (9-6): need a win to clinch a wild card playoff spot.
-New York Giants (9-6): need win and a Green Bay loss to clinch a wild card playoff spot.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6): need a win and losses from Green Bay and the Giants to clinch a wild card playoff spot.
AFC Playoff Scenarios:
All but one playoff spot has yet to be clinched in that division. Also, the Patriots have clinched the AFC's #1 seed, with the Jets securing that #6 spot. And now, here are the teams whose fate this season has yet to be decided and what they will have to do to achieve their best possible scenario:
- Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4): clinched playoff spot, need win to clinch AFC North and AFC's #2 seed.
-Baltimore Ravens (11-4): clinched playoff spot, need win and Pittsburgh loss to clinch AFC North and AFC's #2 seed.
-Kansas City Chiefs (10-5): clinched playoff spot and AFC West, needs win or Colts loss to clinch AFC's #3 seed.
- Indianapolis Colts (9-6): need a win to clinch AFC South and a playoff spot, need a win and Chiefs loss to clinch AFC #3 seed.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) need a win and Indy loss to clinch AFC South and a playoff spot.
MVP Watch: It's really a two man race between Tom Brady and Mike Vick at this point. However, with Vick most likely not playing this week against the Cowboys and Brady having been the favorite for much of the season, I see Brady as the likely winner of the award once the it is officially announced in a couple of weeks.
Possible Final Games For These Head Coaches:
- Gary Kubiak (HOU)
- Tom Coughlin (NYG)
- Jack Del Rio (JAX)
- Jeff Fisher (TEN)
- John Fox (CAR)
- Tony Sparano (MIA)
- Mike Shanahan (WAS)
- Leslie Frazier (MIN)
- Jason Garett (DAL)
- Jim Tosula (SF)
- Eric Mangini (CLE)
- Chan Gailey (BUF)
- Marvin Lewis (CIN)
- Eric Studesville (DEN)
To me, the ones that are most likely to go are Kubiak, Studesville, Mangini, Tosula, Fox and Lewis (finally). The Redskins will probably choose Shanahan over McNabb, thus keeping the orange-faced Super Bowl winner. The Jaguars will keep Del Rio because there seems to be no signs by the organization that they will fire them, Gailey will stay in Buffalo because it was his first season, and both Jason Garett and Leslie Frazier should both get promoted to full-time head coaches in their teams after the respectable jobs they had as interim coaches. This now leaves three interesting situations in New York with the Giants and Tom Coughlin, the Dolphins deciding between a big name head coach or Tony Sparano and the Titans deciding whether to end their long-term relationship with the man who has been around since the Houston Oilers era.
Now, at this point it definitely looks like Coughlin will end up keeping his job as Giants head coach even with the pressure from the New York media. The Dolphins will most likely decide to keep Sparano after remembering the 2008 season when he led the team from 1-15 the previous year to an AFC East title. And as for Fisher...well, I have a feeling that owner Bud Adams will decide with Vince Young over him, thus ending the longest current coaching tenure in the NFL. However, I do have a feeling that Fisher will return as head coach in 2011 for another team, possibly a team like the Cowboys (which means that Jason Garett might not become the head coach of the Cowboys after all). Either way, should be fun to watch the pink slips handed out once the season finally comes to a close.
Miscellaneous:
-Brett Favre is most likely going to be part of his last game Sunday as the Vikings battle the Lions before (hopefully) retiring for the third and final time. The only question remaining is: will the concussion prove too much for Favre, ruling him out of the game, or will Favre be healthy enough to play, leaving coach Leslie Frazier to show pity on him by putting him into the game for one final time?
-Donovan McNabb set to play his last game in a Redskins uniform before joining either Minnesota or Arizona in 2011. He's just like Brett Favre, except there's a 100% chance that he will not be playing against the Giants.
- The races for the NFL's passing and receiving leaders. In the passing department, you have Peyton Manning, with 4436 yards, leading second place Drew Brees who has 4424 yards this season. While in the receiving category, you have Denver's Brandon Lloyd, with 1375 yards, leading Atlanta's Roddy White, who has 1327. There is no race for the NFL's top rusher, however, as Houston rookie Arian Foster has a comfortable 70+ yard advantage over Jamaal Charles (who most likely will not play for most of week 17).
- Gus Johnson sneaking in one last NFL gusgasm that he can before focusing on college basketball games for the next four months.
Now that I've finished with that, time to get to the main course of this post, the picks. Week 16 was not such a good week for both mj50 and I, as we ended up finishing the week around the .500 mark with an 8-8 record for me and a 7-9 record for mj50. As for the race for the best season record, it appears that I am poised to finish the year with the better record for the second year in a row, as I have a record of 159-97, 21 games better than mj50's 138-118 record. But enough about what happened in the past, let's focus on what's most important, which in this case is the games in week 17. So, without further ado, here are the picks by mj15 and myself for this, the final week of the 2010 NFL regular season. As always, the game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
First of all, I would like to take this time give it up to the Chiefs for winning the AFC West. For weeks, I had been expecting this team to choke like the Denver Broncos in 2008 so that the Chargers could win the division once again and have their annual playoff meltdown in January. But they didn't, so for that I'm give credit where credit is due.
Anyways, normally I would take the Raiders in this situation with the Mike Greenberg Theory in play. However, as you probably know, the final week of the regular season usually sets up an interesting dilemma for teams that are already in the playoffs and have nothing to lose, like this Chiefs team that has already clinched the AFC West and a home playoff spot. Do you play your starters throughout the game, or do you go the Bill Belichick route and play your starters no matter what their health status is like? Personally, I think that the Chiefs aren't even going to risk playings guys like Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and (especially) Jamaal Charles throughout the game just so that they can prove something to the rest of the league. With that in mind, expect that Raiders offense to have themselves a field day against KC's second team because of this, leading to a victory for the gray and black.
mj50's pick: Kansas City
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-4): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Miami
If this had been any other week 17 before this season, I might have said that the Patriots aren't going to bench their starters and that they're going to actually try and win this ballgame because the team's addiction for winning is greater than Gregg Easterbrook's addiction to undrafted white guys. But remember, last year in the final week of the regular season saw the season-ending injury to Wes Welker, whose loss in the team's lineup was one of the reasons why the team got crushed by Baltimore in the playoffs last season. I have a feeling that Belichick will try to avoid having something similar happen this year, benching his starters mid-game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are going to try to go for that rare 7-1 on the road, 1-7 at home season. In other words, I have a feeling that it will be the Dolphins to come out of this one on top.
mj50's pick: New England
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger as the team's quarterback are 12-1 against the Browns, so the team already has an edge overall Cleveland in recent history. The Steelers also defeated the Browns earlier this season in big fashion (28-10), are the top ranked defense against the run (so don't expect Peyton Hillis do have a good game to end his unexpectedly good season) and are just overall better than the Browns in almost every major category. Expect the Steelers to clinch the #2 seed in the AFC...BIG.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Since Baltimore will come into the game, like Pittsburgh, in contention for the AFC North crown and the #2 seed in the AFC, expect the Ravens to come into the game prepared and ready to crush Cincinnati. And while they probably won't get it with Pittsburgh expected to beat Cleveland, I still do think that they will win the game and at least clinch that #5 seed in te playoffs.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Minnesota
I guess I was wrong about the Vikings. Apparently, Joe Webb has some promise, and that the Vikings haven't given up on the season just yet.
mj50's pick: Detroit
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Because even if the Jets have clinched the playoffs and the #6 seed, it still doesn't mean that they're going to want to end the season by losing to Buffalo.
mj50's pick: New York
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
Tampa Bay has had a perfect 0-5 record this season against teams that are over .500. There's no way that they are going to end such a perfect record against the Saints, who are going to go in the game well prepared and battling for the #1 seed in the NFC. No way.
mj50's pick: New Orleans
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-14.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Thanks to Atlanta's loss last Monday night to the Saints, it means that they're going to actually have to win this ballgame to try and clinch the #1 seed in the NFC. However, this challenge should prove to be tougher than most may think with the Panthers, who have already clinched the #1 pick of the draft regardless of whether or not they lose and have John Fox trying to end his most likely final season as Panthers head coach with a victory. Still, the combination of Atlanta's great track record at home and the Panthers as the league's worst offense this season should be enough for the Falcons to win this game and clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
HALFTIME! I was watching watching the HBO Comedy channel two days before Christmas, when I stumbled upon an old "One Night Stand" special with Diane Ford as the comedian. Funny gal. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any video of that stand-up performance, so instead here's a video of her talking about the differences between men and video. I'd figure that I would at least dedicate one halftime this season to showcase a female comedian.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Jacksonville is playing this game without David Garrard and without Maurice Jones-Drew, two of the team's most valuable offensive players. The Texans, meanwhile, (who can now add "losing 24-23 to Tim Tebow after winning 17-0" to their list of heart wrenching losses this season) are out for revenge for that Hail Mary game loss in week 11, and Matt Schaub should have a good game facing the league's 26th ranked passing defense. So, while 2010 was another dissapointing year for the Houston Texans (mostly thanks to that historically atrocious passing defense of theirs), it will at least go out with a solid victory.
mj50's pick: Houston
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-10): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
With the Colts actually playing in a week 17 game that matters this year (win and you're in the playoffs), it means that the team will come into the game playing everyone of their starters and actually giving a crap and winning it unlike most other seasons this past decade where they just start everybody for a quarter and then bring in the second stringers. Also, don't expect the Titans to play spoiler, not with that eight game losing streak and the entire team seemingly quitting in the last three or so weeks.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-6): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Fransisco
It's the beginning of the Jim Tosula era! How exciting...and shortly lived! By the way, it just goes to show you just hoe much the 49ers front office have really wanted Mike Singletary out as their head coach when they decided to fire him as soon as the team was eliminated from playoff contention with a freakin' week to go in the season. They didn't even want him to finish the final game of the season!
Anyways, this is a match-up that is putting together two 5-10 teams with nothing to play for and nothing to lose against each other in a meaningless game to end the season. Arizona has only won once on the road this season, and that only came in the first week of the season. As I have also mentioned this season, they have been ranked in the bottom five in almost every part of the game this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming into this game having crushed the Cardinals earlier in the season, playing at home (where they have won 80% of their games this season) and have Frank Gore ready to put up a good game and make his fantasy owners that are playing him in their championship games this week very pleased. In other words, expect Tosula to finish the season with the best winning percentage of any head coach this year, at a perfect 1.0000.
mj50's pick: San Fransisco
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
Because no Michael Vick + Philly ending the game with the #3 seed in the NFC regardless + Jason Garett trying to prove one last time that he should be Dallas's next full-time head coach= a win for Dallas. Now, about the Min./Phi. getting bumped from Sunday night to Tuesday night: Yes, I am peeved that the NFL and the city of Philadelphia would start caring about fan's and players safety because of snow, especially considering that this is the same city where the Eagles won the 1948 NFL championship in conditions much worse than that on Sunday night. Grant it, I'm not angry like the Gov. of Pennsylvania was, calling the US a nation of wussies, but I'm still dissapointed nonetheless. On the bright side...Tuesday Night Football! For the first time since 1946! Much better than watching a rerun of "Glee" on FOX, that's for sure! (Note: let's hope that this is the only Tuesday Night Football game for a long time, though).
mj50's pick: Philadelphia
San Diego Chargers (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
The Chargers still keeping Norv Turner at this point is just puzzling to me. So this is the team that fired Marty Schottenheimer in 2007 after a 14-2 season because of a divisional round playoff loss, yet when Norv Turner fails to take a Super Bowl contender to the playoffs they decide on keeping him? What are the Chargers waiting for? A last place finish in the AFC West?
mj50's pick: San Diego
New York Giants (-4) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Washington
I'm telling you, once DeSean Jackson scored that game-winning kick return in week 15, the Giants season was over then and there. No way that they were going to come back from that. Besides, Rex Grossman has played pretty decently as Redskins QB, almost good enough to compete for the starting gig in 2011. Finally, this week need some kind of Tampa Bay/Oakland 2008 type upset in week 17, and I have a feeling that the Redskins will do just that.
mj50's pick: Washington
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-10): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
And the second and final NFC Wild Card spot goes to...the Green Bay Packers! Chicago is going to end this game as the NFC's #2 seed regardless of whether or not they win this game. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has yet to lose against the Bears at Lambeau Field in his three seasons as the NFL starter. Expect this Bears/Packers game to end the same way much like it did when these two teams played in the regular season finale in 2006, with the Packers winning big and the Bears ending it with a wild card round bye in the playoffs.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
St. Louis Rams (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
Some people think that this will be a terrible game. I disagree. Because if last year's awesome regular season game between the Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns taught us, its that a bad team and a bad team could add up to a great game, especially if the game is for the NFC West and the season's final playoff spot. Anyways, two weeks in the week 15 column, I broke down every thing that I thought might happen in the race for the NFC West crown. Two weeks later, and I am 100% surprisingly dead on in all of my predictions so far, so of course I'm going to stick with St. Louis after all these weeks to win the NFC West in this game. The reason you ask? Decent rookie QB that's better than whoever the Seahawks will start, a win against Seattle earlier in the season, a potent defense and because the majority of football fans will cheer them on because they would rather see an 8-8 playoff team than a 7-9 playoff team. Now, can we go onto the playoffs already?
mj50's pick: Seattle
RECAP (the last one of the year, by the way)
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Green Bay over Chicago
The Miracle on Ice Upset of the Week: Washington over New York
The "Dexter" season one vs. "Dexter" season four "I'm Not Sure" Pick: New York Jets over Buffalo
My Projected Wild Card Matchups For Next Week (Including the Order):
-New York Jets vs. Indianapolis
- Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
- New Orleans vs. St. Louis
- Baltimore vs. Kansas City
mj50's Projected Wild Card Matchups For Next Week:
- New York Jets vs. Indianapolis
- Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
- New Orleans vs. Seattle
- Baltimore vs. Kansas City
So that concludes seventeen weeks of regular season NFL predictions as well as perhaps the final seventeen-week in the NFL's history now that the possibility of an 18 game season is becoming ever more likely. Be sure to drop by next week as I reveal to you my predictions for the four wild card playoff games, as well as a quick recap of my week 17 results. Also, changing the subject, remember once again to drop by tomorrow as I will wrap up this final week of 2010 on The mj15 blog with the fourth and final installment of End of the Year 2010, where I will bring you my picks for the 2010 People of the Year. Enjoy the games this week, everybody!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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