(The undefeated Packers and the resurging Lions are set to square off tomorrow in Detroit's biggest Thanksgiving game in years.)
Thanksgiving is here, y'all! WOOOO! Fantastic turkey dinners, time with the family, parade floats, and (of course) traditional football...all in one fantasic 24 hour span! And looking ahead to this week's slate of games, I'm proud to admit that the three games that are set to start in about 12 hours are, well, surprisingly decent: an undefeated team going up against arguably the best Detroit Lions team since Barry Sanders left, a potentially-playoff bound Cowboys team against a mediocre team with a three game winning streak in a rematch of this memorable Turkey day classic,and a matchup between two different first place teams whose coaches just happen to be brothers. Basically, these three games (arguably the best slate of Thanksgiving games ever) are a far cry from last year when the games were so bad that I proposed that the NFL should start flexing games if necessary just to get more enjoyment out of the day's pigskin action. As you might have guessed, I am getting pretty excited about it, moreso than usual.
But tomorrow isn't the only great day of football planned. In fact, you could say that the entire weekend is filled with a lot of great games to look forward to, from the Bears/Raiders showdown on Sunday afternoon to the Saints and the Giants on Monday night football (there's also all those big college football games being played on Friday and Saturday, but for the purposes of this column, I will not be discussing it). So, what are we waiting for? Let's get right down to the picks!
Both mj50 and myself finished week 12 with a 9-5 record. How will we do this week? Only one way to find out...
Let's begin (As always, game time are based on the Central time zone):
mj15's pick: Detroit
If there was any better time for the Packers to finally lose their first game of the season, it would have to be now: on the road, in a pivotal NFC North matchup, against a team playing what is arguably their biggest game in over a decade and for the chance a win one in the Thanksgiving spotlight for the first time since 2003, with a loud and hostile crowd in Ford Field going against than that once caused an opposing team to false start nine times earlier this season in their last big game of the season. Besides, they're one of the few teams in the regular season that have, and are going up against Green Bay that feature two key elements that are absolutely necessary to have if you're expected to beat them: an offense that can match Aaron Rodgers, and a defense that can stop Aaron Rodgers.
As I write this, Detroit is one of the eight teams in the league this season to average over 270 yards passing. Combine that with their league's third-best points average (30.1, behind only New Orleans and, yes, Green Bay) and a Green Bay defense that is one of the three worst in stopping opposing offenses from scoring, and you have yourselves an average that can compete toe-for-toe with the Packers throughout the game. Also, while Aaron Rodgers' has had a season that is arguably one of the greatest ever in the league's modern era and one that will most definitely earn him his first MVP title if his team keeps steady, he hasn't really been up with a pass rush as good as the Lions. I say Rodgers only, and not Green Bay's entire offense, because the Packers are largely as good as they are because of his stellar play, with the defense being (as mentioned earlier) rather terrible and their running game being a non-factor most of the time. Now, that offense is up against a defense that's in the top three in interceptions, top five in passing yards allowed, and the top ten in sacks. Will the Packers' explosive offense continue it's magic again on Thursday? Considering that they're also going to face that raunchy crowd in Detroit along with that remorse-less offense that the Lions have, I think that there will, in fact, be some struggles, more than usual for them.
In other words, this game has the making of the perfect conditions for the Packers to get taken down for the first time and for the '72 Dolphins to pop the bubbly in celebration without any sense of self-consciousness. And as a result, I see the Lions as being the likely Thanksgiving victors (at long last).
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7): Thanksgiving- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
The Dolphins may have won three straight (a rather startling development considering how lifeless they looked after their 0-7 start), but the Cowboys have been just as hot (if not hotter), winning four out of their last five. Not only that, but this team has been pretty much money in the bank at Cowboys Stadium this season, losing only once and having a combined score of 101-27 there since week 7. Consider this recent stretch of good feelings in Miami to end faster than Herman Cain's popularity in the polls (BOOM! CONTEMPORARY POLITICAL HUMOR! BEAT THAT, SETH MYERS!).
Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7): Thanksgiving- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
The Dolphins may have won three straight (a rather startling development considering how lifeless they looked after their 0-7 start), but the Cowboys have been just as hot (if not hotter), winning four out of their last five. Not only that, but this team has been pretty much money in the bank at Cowboys Stadium this season, losing only once and having a combined score of 101-27 there since week 7. Consider this recent stretch of good feelings in Miami to end faster than Herman Cain's popularity in the polls (BOOM! CONTEMPORARY POLITICAL HUMOR! BEAT THAT, SETH MYERS!).
mj50's pick: Dallas
San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3): Thanksgiving- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
I don't know if you have heard, but this is a pretty big game being played tomorrow night. Both the Ravens and 49ers are both first place, both with basically a similar style of play (great defense and running game, so-so passing game) in their divisions and both have one of the Harbaugh brothers as their head coach. So as far as the hype goes, I'd say that this one is doing pretty well. The Ravens when up against another good teams are the games where they actually play well the most, and since there at home as well I'm going to take them (and younger brother John over older brother Jim). Besides, as good as the 49ers have been (and they have been great), I just don't like the fact that they have to travel coast-to-coast on a short week to play this game. Kind of a turn-off, actually.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3): Thanksgiving- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
I don't know if you have heard, but this is a pretty big game being played tomorrow night. Both the Ravens and 49ers are both first place, both with basically a similar style of play (great defense and running game, so-so passing game) in their divisions and both have one of the Harbaugh brothers as their head coach. So as far as the hype goes, I'd say that this one is doing pretty well. The Ravens when up against another good teams are the games where they actually play well the most, and since there at home as well I'm going to take them (and younger brother John over older brother Jim). Besides, as good as the 49ers have been (and they have been great), I just don't like the fact that they have to travel coast-to-coast on a short week to play this game. Kind of a turn-off, actually.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
Ugh, picking this game is like having to choose between "Jack and Jill" and last year's "Yogi Bear" revamp as the better film. I guess I will go with the Rams in this one. The Cardinals only barely won in their meeting earlier this year, and that's only because Patrick Peterson had one of the five best plays of the season. Also, you gotta like the fact that the Rams are at home, the only place that they've ever won this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
Ugh, picking this game is like having to choose between "Jack and Jill" and last year's "Yogi Bear" revamp as the better film. I guess I will go with the Rams in this one. The Cardinals only barely won in their meeting earlier this year, and that's only because Patrick Peterson had one of the five best plays of the season. Also, you gotta like the fact that the Rams are at home, the only place that they've ever won this season.
mj50's pick: St. Louis
HALFTIME! On Saturday, Comedy Central aired "Weirdo," the first one-hour stand-up special of Donald Glover, who you might also know as the guy from Derrick Comedy, rapper "Childish Gambino," and the guy who plays Troy on "Community" (of which I have a fondness for, in case you haven't heard). Basically, the man can do a lot of things really well. Anyways, the stand-up special itself was pretty good; not as good as his "Comedy Central Presents" special mind you, but still filled with its share of hilarious moments.. Here is just a sample of the funny:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Tennessee Titans (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (-9): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
I always secretly knew that the Buffalo Bills would crack during the season. I just didn't think it would be before Thanksgiving. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is basically the new Chris Johnson ever since he signed that $59 million, isn't he?
mj50's pick: New York
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
Cleveland Browns record: 4-6. Bengals record this season against teams currently at or under .500: 4-1. Not a difficult game to choose, if you ask me.
mj50's pick: Cincinnati
Houston Texans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Here's the thing: even though the Texans are now without Matt Schaub in addition to Mario Williams, I still feel that they're good enough to at least win this game. After all, they still have Arian Foster and that 2nd ranked rushing defense lined-up behind center, they still have one of this season's best defenses to match with the Jaguars' equally good defense, and Andre Johnson is finally coming back after being injured for eight weeks. Matt Leinart also had the convenience to prepare two weeks for this game, so expect him to at least be slightly less terrible than you would expect him. Finally, let's not forget the most important thing here, and that's the fact that Jacksonville's offense is pure crap. I would rather take a back-up who hasn't started in 2 years than Blaine Gabbert any day at this point.
mj50's pick: Houston
Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Carolina
Cam Newton is going to have a field day against the league's 29th best defense. Also, Andrew Luck should just begin preparing a speech for his 04/27/11 Colts introductory press conference by now. Everyone knows that the "Suck for Luck" campaign is essentially over by now.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
HALFTIME! On Saturday, Comedy Central aired "Weirdo," the first one-hour stand-up special of Donald Glover, who you might also know as the guy from Derrick Comedy, rapper "Childish Gambino," and the guy who plays Troy on "Community" (of which I have a fondness for, in case you haven't heard). Basically, the man can do a lot of things really well. Anyways, the stand-up special itself was pretty good; not as good as his "Comedy Central Presents" special mind you, but still filled with its share of hilarious moments.. Here is just a sample of the funny:
| Donald Glover: Weirdo | ||||
| Donald Glover - Making Sex | ||||
| ||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Tennessee Titans (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
This one was a tough one for me to choose, mostly because of the status to Matt Hasselbeck. Currently, he's suffering a broken right elbow and is being ruled questionable. Because the Titans' NFL.com page lists him as the only injured player on the team to actually go ahead and practice, I take it as a good sign that he will play. If he plays, then I strongly believe that he will take advantage of one of the league's worst defense at stopping the pass just like almost every other team before them has done this year. Besides, Chris Johnson is up against the league's 26th best rushing defense. I know that he just came off a 12 carries, 13 yard game last week, but Atlanta is ranked #2 and features a far more better defensive front seven than the Bucs. I don't know about you guys, but I'm sensing a return-to-form performance by CJ2k this Sunday.
mj50's pick: Tennessee
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons (-9.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
The Vikings have been outscored 105-41 in their last three road games. Add in the possibility of Adrian Peterson being ruled out of the game after the injury he suffered last week, and consider that to be a terrific recipe of impending disaster for Minnesota.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
Here are some things this week that I would recommend for you to do this weekend instead of watching this game:
-Eating turkey dinner and spending time with your extended family.
-Watching "The Muppets"/"Hugo"/"The Artist" in theaters, all in one big six-hour block
-Standing outside in the cold waiting for your local Thanksgiving parade to start five hours before it begins.
-Watch "A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving" and point out all the unintentional racism in it.
-Sending your son to spend three hours alone with Jerry Sandusky
-Anything else.
mj50's pick: Seattle
Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders (-4): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
As I mentioned here earlier this week, I still have some optimism for the Bears even with the loss of Jay Cutler. That said, I'm still not confident enough to pick them to win in this game. Carson Palmer continues to get better in this Raiders offense by the week (a far cry from his rusty start in week 7 against Kansas City), and the Raiders running game has tallied an average of 152 yards in their last four games. The Raiders defense will also probably stack eight or nine guys in the box regularly, stopping Matt Forte and pressuring Caleb Hanie to make some throws. Will Hanie be able to handle that pressure? My mind says "not yet." Obviously, my mood on the Bears will be much different next week once I get a good sampling of their play this Sunday.
mj50's pick: Chicago
New England Patriots (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
Almost every time that the Eagles have won a game and the pundits start to have another "Can Philadelphia still make the playoffs?" debate this season has almost always been followed by a loss. LeSean McCoy will probably rush for over 100 yards again this week, but he has done this in seemingly every game this season, so that really won't matter much in the outcome. Also, expect Philly's defense to have troubles stopping Tom Brady from finding Wes Welker and the tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on the inside, and for the Patriots' rejuvenated defense to give the Eagles passing game some troubles.
mj50's pick: New England
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers (-6): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Denver
TEEEEEEEEEBOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!!111
(In all seriousness, it really has been quite fun to watch Tebow play this season, hasn't it? It seems like in every game he's played this season, he's had fifty minutes of action where it looks like he proves his doubters right, and then ten minutes or plays like his 56 yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker that felt like it was coming from a running back, where he proves his supporters right. It's like watching the sports version of "The Walking Dead" every week with him, and I don't whether I'm angry about this or happy.)
mj50's pick: Denver
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
So much for the resurging Kansas City Chiefs! Three straight losses, and one brutal four game schedule to come. On the bright side, it at least makes picking games like these a lot easier!
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-7): Monday- 7:35 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
Because both teams are evenly matched on the defensive side, this game really comes down to which of these teams have the better offense, which is New Orleans by a longshot (they are #1 in total yards, after all). Besides, like Cowboys Stadium for Dallas and Lambeau Field for Green Bay, the Louisiana Superdome has proven to be quite the homefield advantage for the Saints, as they have yet to lose in that stadium this season. Expect to see this home streak to continue once more on Monday night.
mj50's pick: New Orleans
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Atlanta over Minnesota
The Chiefs over Vikings in Super Bowl IV Upset of the Week: Detroit over Green Bay
"The Godfather" vs. "The Godfather: Part II" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Tampa Bay over Tennessee
So, there you have it. To conclude, I have both of the NFC's top two teams losing tomorrow, along with the Colts staying winless, the Schaub-less Texans off to a good start,the Cutler-less Bears off to a bad start, and an overall good week for teams that are in cities starting with the letter D, among other things. So, enjoy the games,and enjoy the entire four-day weekend as a whole! I will be back with more NFL picks same time next week.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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