Jets QB Mark Sanchez (left) and Broncos QB Tim Tebow (right) are set to face each other in the first matchup of week 11.
Happy Thursday, football fans! Before I get to the picks, a big shout-out to the other half of this column, mj50. Last week in a rather surprising turn of events, he had what was by far his best week ever picking games, going an incredible 14-2 (I finished the week 12-4, still respectable but not good enough). Overall, my old man has come a long way since the beginning of this column. Three years ago, he initially started out poorly, regularly finishing weeks with under .500 records. Now, over two years have passed and he, like yours truly, is off to his best start in a season yet with an impressive 92-54 record through nine weeks (just slightly below my 101-45 record). Not bad for someone who didn't start following football until he turned 34!
Of course, all of that is in the past. Now, we're in a new week with 14 brand new games (because apparently the league couldn't allow the Colts/Saints/Texans/Steelers to have their bye weeks last week and be done with them) on tap, nearly half of which are games within the division. Will both of our lucks continue? We'll find out in time, but for now here they are just to give you an idea of how we believe this week will play out. As always, the starting game times are based on the Central time zone here in the U.S.
Let's begin:
New York Jets (-6) vs. Denver Broncos: Thursday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
You have to give credit to the Denver Broncos for what they have done in the past two weeks. Coach John Fox and offensive coordinator saw the flaws that their offense had with horrendous pocket passer Tim Tebow throwing under center and changed the system to a more run-friendly one and one that would benefit from the skills that Tebow currently has. The results have definitely shown that, with the team having won two in a row and getting in contention for the AFC West, and their running game has worked so effectively they've ran for over 200 yards on average (even when their third string running back was playing for the majority of a game) and helped their team win even when Tebow finished 2-8 for 69 yards and only 1 touchdown. That said, I'm still not convinced that the Broncos will be able to defeat the Jets tonight. All of the three games that the team won under Tebow have ranged from average to mediocre, and the one good team that they did face (Detroit) destroyed them at home. The Jets are a team just as good as (if not better than) Detroit, having won three out of their last four (just like Denver has, only in a tougher schedule), and feature a defense that definitely has the capability of stopping Denver's red hot rushing game.
mj50's pick: Denver
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
The Bengals are really this year's version of the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't they? They, like last year's Bucs, are a promising young team that no one expected to do well, only to prove everyone wrong by starting off the season with one of the league's best records at 6-3. They also happened to get to that record by winning the majority of them against team with a record at .500 or worse (their only exception was against the Bills week 4). I bring this up because around the same time last year I just decided to choose for or against Tampa based on the record of their opponent (Under .500? Yes. Over .500? Not a chance) unless proven otherwise, and now I've decided to do the same with Cincinnati this season. Baltimore is 6-3 (4-1 against teams currently with a winning record), and also more focused after last week's disappointing loss to Seattle, and as a result I am siding with them in this case.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (-1): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
Momentum in the key phrase in picking this game. Both teams are awful, but Jacksonville has been the less awful of the two, winning two out of their last three. Cleveland, meanwhile, have lost three in a row and are so bad that their kicker can't kick a field goal in under 30 yards to win against the Rams of all teams! In this case, it is prudent to go against the hotter team.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Oakland Raiders (-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Minnesota
Why not? The Vikings are a significantly better team at home than they are on the road, and they have the rushing defense (ranked 6th in the league) to stop Michael Bush, who put up 242 yards last week against the Chargers. However, with the Raiders coming off a long time to prepare for the Vikings and with Carson Palmer's resurgence, I would not stop you from going against me in this case.
mj50's pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (-14): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
Obviously, this is an easy one. The Packers have averaged 40 points at home this season, while Tampa Bay (losers of four out of their last five games) is ranked 28th in the league defending the pass. Expect to see Aaron Rodger's magical season continue, and expect to see a 10-0 start for Green Bay following this game.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-2): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Buffalo
What a difference a couple of weeks makes. A few weeks, back the Miami Dolphins were undefeated. Now, they're winners of two in a row, and are actually favored to win by Vegas to win against a much better Bills team. Having said that, I believe that he goodwill from the past two weeks will last for just that: two weeks, as they will most surely lose to Buffalo. After all, the Bills have the running game to match the explosive play of Reggie Bush these last two weeks, and I have a good feeling that Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has struggled as of late) will finally get back on track against the league's 25th best passing offense. It's an important divisional matchup for the Bills, and I have a feeling that they will put those last two weeks behind them to get this win.
mj50's pick: Miami
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
Dallas put up 44 points against Buffalo and have won 3 out of 4, while the Redskins lost five in a row, including one to the Dolphins, for Christ sakes! Another obvious choice in this week's slate of games.
mj50's pick: Washington
HALFTIME! On October 26th, it was reported that stand-up comedian Patrice O'Neal (who most of you might recall from his recurring appearances on "The Opie & Anthony Show" from his co-roasting gig on Comedy Central's Roast of Charlie Sheen this past September) suffered a stroke as a result of his diabetes, leaving him in critical condition. We here at The mj15 Blog (and by "we" I mean "I") wish Patrice a speedy recovery overtime, and hope that he can get back to doing what he does best ASAP. With stand-up comedy like this one just below, it would be a shame to see just a great comedic voice leave this world too soon, like so many others before him.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
Look, Detroit's loss last week to the Bears (in which they gave up six turnovers and two INTs for a touchdown, among some of the other highlights) was indeed horrendous. That said, you can't not like the Lions to rebound with a win at home over the Panthers. Matthew Stafford and the 9th ranked Lions passing game should have little to no troubles against a Panthers defense that has given up the third most points of any team this season, while on the other side of the ball I think that Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Lions defense will do a much better job stopping Cam Newton (who is slowly but surely getting figured out by opposing teams) with their 4th ranked passing defense. In other words, expect this Lions team to head into their big Thanksgiving matchup against the Panthers with a feel-good victory.
mj50's pick: Detroit
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Arizona
BECAUSE I'M A RENEGADE, GOD DAMMIT! In all seriousness, I've decided to pick the Cardinals in an upset simply because this game has that kind of "upset in the making" vibe heading into it. Why do you ask? Well, for one thing, Arizona has won two in a row thanks to Patrick Peterson's heroics against the Rams and Larry Fitzgerald being Larry Fitzgerald against the Eagles last week and it looks like this team maybe, sorta, kind of is clicking on some level. Also, it's a divisional matchup and you have to wonder if this is going to be a trap game for the 49ers, what with the big Battle of the Harbaughs set to take place in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.
Am I crazy for picking the Cardinals over a team that could be undefeated right now had it not been for the week 2 heroics of Jessee Holly? Probably, but is it more crazier than the idea of the San Francisco 49ers starting the season with a 9-1 record? I thought so.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams (-2): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
Marshawn Lynch has rushed for over 100 yards two games in a row, and that's against teams like the Cowboys and Ravens. Just imagine what kind of damage he can bring upon against the league's absolute worst rushing defense. Also, if you had to pick a matchup between a bad team that beated the Ravens and a bad team that just barely beat the Browns, it should always be the former, right?
mj50's pick: St. Louis
San Diego Chargers vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
There's so much to like about this Bears team heading into this game that's it would be crazy of me not to pick them to win. They have won four in a row, while the Chargers have lost four games in a row. Matt Forte, on track for the single-season yards from scrimmage record if he keeps his insane play going, is going up against the league's 24th best rushing defense while Devin Hester, fresh off yet another punt return for a touchdown last week against Detroit, now has a chance to make an impact against what is arguably the worst special teams in all of professional football. Meanwhile, Phillip Rivers continues to struggle (with as much turnovers as touchdowns last week against Oakland), and his bad play as of late should not bode well heading into a match-up against a team who had a Super Bowl winning caliber defense last week against Detroit. In conclusion, the Bears will win one at home, and Jay Cutler will have some sweet revenge against his one-time enemy Rivers.
mj50's pick: Chicago
Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (-6): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
A big game for both teams, with the Titans trying to take advantage in the AFC South with the news that Houston has lost Matt Schaub for the rest of the season, while Atlanta is trying to avoid losing two in a row following last week's devastating overtime loss to the Saints. As predicted in this blog last week, Chris Johnson had a big game against the Panthers, rushing for a season high 130 yards, and continues to get back on track. However, with the 3rd best rushing defense in his rearview mirror, I don't see CJ2k's return to glory continuing. His opponent, Michael Turner, is another story. The Titans are 22nd against the rush, and as a result I expect him to do well. Also, the Titans offense isn't nearly as good as the Saints offense, while Matt Ryan should have himself another good game (he's had over 275 yards passing in his last two games). It should be close, but in the end I see the Falcons rebounding with a much important victory over Tennessee.
mj50's pick: Tennessee
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (-4): Sunday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Michael Vick broke two ribs late against the Cardinals last week, so expect him to not have the same impact that he would normally have against the Giants. New York has been a great home team, losing at Met Life Stadium only once, and Eli Manning should be able to do some damage against an Eagles defense that couldn't even stop John Skelton from winning against them. In short, I've got the Giants sweeping the Eagles in the regular season and holding their decent lead in the NFC East.
mj50's pick: New York
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (-15): Monday- 7:35 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
New England's win over the Jets + Game at Foxboro + No Matt Cassel for Kansas City = Why the hell shouldn't I pick the Patriots?
mj50's pick: New England
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: Green Bay over Tampa Bay
The Jets over the Colts in Super Bowl III Upset of the Week: Arizona over San Francisco
The "Ratatouille" vs. "Wall-E" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Minnesota over Oakland
Be sure to stop by this Wednesday for my special Thanksgiving week edition of the NFL picks, along with the usual recap of my picks for the previous week. Otherwise, enjoy the games, everyone!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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