Thursday, December 8, 2011

2011 NFL Predictions: The Week 14 POWAH RANKINGS! (and Picks, Of Course)

Six weeks ago, I posted this, a power rankings of every team in the NFL through the first eight weeks of the season. In the six weeks since then, a lot has change. Certain teams like the Denver Broncos and the Miami Dolphins have surprised everyone with impressive winning streaks that have made most forget of their early season struggles, while others like the San Diego Chargers and the Buffalo Bills have been in a constant state of free falls. The Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears have suffered some key injuries to their core stars, while the Tennessee Titans have largely been on the rise thanks to the resurgence of a certain Cop Speed running back, while the Philadelphia Eagles continue to count themselves out of playoff contention with one embarrassing loss after another. With all of this in mind, I'd figure that it would be appropriate to take time before giving out the picks to reboot the power rankings a bit as we head into the final (and most important) quarter of the NFL season. Just like last time, we will begin with the worst team and get progressively better as the list goes on:

THE WINLESS

32. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-12)
Well, the Colts certainly have the right strategy going for them. If you're going to participate in the Suck for Luck campaign, you have to win it in style. And what better way to do so than with an 0-12 record following nine straight playoff appearances and just two seasons removed from a Super Bowl? Speaking of which, how great is it that we're living in a time where we could not only see the third 16-0 team in NFL history, but also the third winless team in NFL history? What a time to be alive!

NOT WINLESS, BUT STILL GOD-AWFUL

31. ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-10)
The weird thing is that even though I have the Rams ahead of the Colts simply because there's no possible way they can be considered worse than an undefeated team since, you know, they actually won (including one surprising win against New Orleans week 8), I would still pick Indianapolis over them if they were to go face-to-face. Home field advantage for St. Louis, home field advantage for Indianapolis, you name it; I have the Colts as the victor. I say this because at least the Colts and their offense have shown the capabilities of going toe to toe against teams with bad defenses (last week's against the Patriots was a prime example, along with their game two weeks ago against Carolina). The Rams (ranked 32nd in points, and 31st in total yards) can't score more than 15 points in their lives.

30. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-10)
The only reason to be excited about the Minnesota Vikings these days are for two reasons: a) the possibility of seeing them grab a top 3 pick in the 2012 draft, and b) being a Percy Harvin fantasy owner. I have owned Harvin on the roster since November and I think I speak for millions of other Harvin fantasy owners when I say that I have been greatful for this ever since. Thanks in large part to the injuries of Adrian Peterson and #2 WR Michael Jenkins, Harvin has seen a lot of action as of late, averaging over 100 total yards and a touchdown. Since I am in my league's playoff, I can only hope that Harvin remains a factor for the rest of the season as well.

29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-9)
If you consider the city of Jacksonville as a gloomy city now, just imagine how they will be within five years from now when their precious Jaguars have long packed and left to play football in that shiny new Los Angeles football stadium. I can just imagine it now, with fans lamenting about their loss of a team and writing countless books and articles on what might have been had they drafted Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback in 2010, and not Blaine Gabbert (who is having the epitome of a terrible rookie season right now), much like this Mike Bianchi article for the Orlando Sentinel. I'm preemptively dreading it as I write this!

REMEMBER WHEN THESE TEAMS HAD SOME HOPE?

28. CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-8)
I was thinking about writing about how bad this team is (yet again), but I feel that Browns fans have suffered enough already. MATT BARKLEY AS 2012 STARTER!

27. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-8)
In the week 8 power rankings, I had the Buccaneers listed in the "Undecided About How I Feel About Them" category because of how their teams had then struggled to pull off wins and because of how they had yet to convince me outside of their win against New Orleans week 6 that they would be a major threat throughout the year. I also ended my thoughts on them by mentioning how their next few weeks against other potential playoff teams will be the games to give me a better idea of their ability. Five straight losses later (three by eleven or more points), this team has definitely made figuring them out a lot easier.

THE FOOTBALL VERSION OF "The Walking Dead"

26. CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-8)
The bad news for the Panthers: their team is still pretty bad and has quite a bit to improve, especially on the defensive front (27th in rushing yards allowed, 21st in total yards allowed, 29th in points allowed). The good news: they've won two in a row, and they have future Rookie-of-the-Year Cam Newton under center as the athletic and elusive quarterback who has single handily kept this team in as many games. If the Panthers find a way to rebuild around this kid, then I guarantee years of success for the team down the line.

25. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-8)
24. PHILADELPHIA REDSKINS (4-8)
Because when you have two teams with identical records, winner goes to the one who won in their previous face-off this season. Also, Michael Vick is set to come back this Sunday. Sure, he will probably get injured again at some point later this December, but I'm sure that Redskins fan would have him over Rex Grossman and John Beck any day of the week.

23. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-7)
Remember when the Chiefs went on that surprising three game win streak after starting the season 0-3 and we all thought that this is a sign that they just might be able compete for the AFC West crown? Yeah, well, now that the team has lost four out of their last five (with their only win coming in a victory against a Bears team crippled with injuries where they needed to catch a Hail Mary pass at the end zone to win and to score their first touchdown since week 10) and have fallen to last place, that seems like distant memory at this point.

WEST COAST AVERAGE!

22. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-7)
They have three winnable games to end the season, and Marshawn Lynch has been playing like one of the best running backs in the league at this point that they might once again be able to finish the season with either a 7-9 or 8-8. Unfortunately for them, unlike last year, their expected .500 won't help be enough for them to get a playoff berth.

21. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-7)
What's there to say about the team that hasn't already been said? After starting the season 4-2, the Chargers have lost five out of their last six (with Phillip Rivers playing his worst stretch of football in quite of time), and it took a win Monday night against the unimpressive Jaguars Monday night just to get their groove back. For the second season in a row, it appears that this team with all that great talent in place will find themselves once again out of a playoff spot. But you know what? As bad as they have been lately I just cannot rule them out of the postseason just yet. Five of their six losses since week six have been games determined by seven points or less, and the AFC playoff race is still relatively wide open at this point.

Ah, who am I kidding! This team still has Norv Turner as their head coach. Expect them to shoot themselves in the foot and self-eliminate themselves from playoff contention by Christmastime.

TWO HOT TEAMS, AND THE BUFFALO BILLS

20. ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-7)
Winners of four out their last five games, the Cardinals have certainly gotten out of their early season struggles thanks in large part to the running of Beanie Wells, their better-than-usual defense, and the fact that they got to play the St. Louis Rams twice. However, with the offensive line continuing to play badly and the quarterbacks' erratic play (whether its John Skelton or Kevin Kolb), I have a feeling that these past few weeks of good feelings will come to an end during these final few weeks of the season.

19. BUFFALO BILLS (5-7)
How quickly a season can turn for a team. Last time I decided to make a power rankings list, Bills fans had playoffs on their mind with their team off to a surprising 4-2. Now, with the team having lost five out of six thanks in large part to opposing defenses figuring out their once high-octane offense, the best they could hope for is an 8-8 record, their best record in any season since 2004. But with the Bills up against the Chargers,Dolphins,Broncos and Patriots to end the season, not even an 8-8 record looks within probable reach. In other words, it's looks like the 2008 season all over again for the lowly Bills.

18. MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-8)
Much like what the Cardinals are in the NFC, the Dolphins are to the AFC with a 4 out of 5 win streak of their own (outscoring their opponents an impressive 139-54), with their only loss in that span coming off a final minute field goal against Dallas on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately for them, it's definitely too little too late for them (and Tony Sparano from the looks of it) thanks to their 0-7 start at the beginning of the season. Still, you can't say that it hasn't been entertaining watching the resurgence of Reggie Bush and Matt Moore breaking out from his "terrible QB" image that he made for himself back in Carolina last season.

THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK

17. TENNESSEE TITANS (7-5)
He's baaaack! After nine weeks of prized Titans running back Chris Johnson struggling to put up numbers, getting past 65 yards rushing just once and leading a Titans rushing game that was at one point ranked dead last in the league statistically, he has really been on a rebound as of late. Three out of the last four games have featured over 100 yards rushing from Johnson (these same games have also coincided with Titans wins by the way), and he has been an instrumental part in Tennessee getting back into the playoff picture, along with the opportunistic turnovers caused by their defense and their rather favorable schedule as of late. Now, after their tough matchup this week against New Orleans, they'll have three winnable games against AFC South rivals to end the season, so expect them to be in the playoff race throughout the rest of the regular season. If it weren't for their rather mediocre list of wins, I just might have ranked them even higher.

16. CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-5)
They've had only one win against a team this season currently ranked over .500, and that's the team that I just talked about a paragraph earlier (24-17 in week 9). I know I sound one-note when talking about this Bengals team since I've included this observation seemingly every week in the past two months, but why shouldn't I? After all, when you fail to defeat any of the good teams you face, how am I possibly supposed to take you seriously once the playoff push kicks into high gear. Luckily for the Bengals, I can easily be won over, and a win this week against the Texans just might be able to do it depending on how the game plays itself out.

15. OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-5)
They've lost four out of their last six lately and have fallen behind while Tebowmania keeps growing rapidly like a virus, and they've been impacted by a ton of injuries. What I'm trying to say is that Raiders fans should enjoy these remaining four games while they last because if this team keeps on struggling, then playoff football will no longer be within their grasp.

14. CHICAGO BEARS (7-5)
The one thing they've got going for them is a defense that has been playing one of its best stretches of football this year. However, with Matt Forte now out for a considerable amount of games in addition to Jay Cutler, and a schedule that includes two first place teams to wrap up the season, the future doesn't look too bright for the Bears and their fans compared to a mere two weeks ago.

13. DETROIT LIONS (7-5)
This is an example of a team falling apart both mentally and physically. Mentally, it just seems that they've taken their Bad Boy image to the extreme over recent weeks, with one dumb penalty and game injection over another. Meanwhile, their defense continues to struggle week after week since Stephen Tulloch "Tebowed" right in front of the Broncos quarterback, giving up an average of about 33 points since week 10. However, with the Bears in free fall, I'd say that they have the current advantage among NFC North teams fighting it out for a wild card spot.

THE FOOTBALL VERSION OF "Treme"

12. NEW YORK GIANTS (6-6)
On the one hand, they've lost four straight games, and their defense has been terrible at stopping opponents from putting points across the board. On the other hand, three out of those four losses came in one possession games (including last week's instant classic against Green Bay), Eli Manning is still playing well, Ahmad Bradshaw is back from injury and is expected to play a bigger role within the coming weeks, and they have two matches against the Cowboys this month that could swing the NFC East right back in their favor. In other words, don't count out Tom Coughlin and the Giants just yet.

11. ATLANTA FALCONS (7-5)
Meh.

10. NEW YORK JETS (7-5)
I'm getting a kind of 2009 vibe with this football team. They've won two in a row since Thanksgiving, and they now have a pretty favorable to end the season with three games against under .500 teams. Plus, out of all the other teams vying for an AFC Wild Card question, they unquestionably rank above all of the others. Once again, it all depends on the play of Mark Sanchez. If he's able to play some solid football and continues to play well under pressure (11 comeback wins in his career), then there's no doubt in my mind that the Jets will once again be playing for a third straight spot in the AFC Championship this January.

GETTING BETTER...

9. DENVER BRONCOS (7-5)
If you want my full thoughts on this team, just go on and read Monday's "Random Thoughts" column. Just know that they're arguably the hottest team in the league right now that isn't located in Green Bay or San Francisco, and have jumped from last place to first place in the AFC West in the span of two months. Because of this, I have them in the top ten at the moment.

8. DALLAS COWBOYS (7-5)
Good God, was that clock management at the final minute of Sunday's game against Arizona awful! Twenty four seconds with two timeouts left and no one from Jason Garrett to Tony Romo realized it. Instead, they just showed zero urgency and took over 15 seconds just to spike the ball. And if that wasn't bad enough, Garrett actually iced his own kicker for no reason, leading to a missed field goal right after that sent the team in an eventual overtime loss. I THOUGHT YOU WENT TO PRINCETON, GARRETT!

Outside of that, though, the Cowboys are in pretty good position at this point. Currently, they're 7-4 and first place in the division. Their defense has been pretty good at stopping points from going to the other side (last time they gave up more than 25 points was week 5 against the Lions), their offense is sufficient and they're still one of the best home teams in the league. They can finish off the season with at least two wins, I think that will be good enough to secure at least a Wild Card spot.

7. HOUSTON TEXANS (9-3)
In past years, losing Matt Schaub would have resulted in an automatic freefall for the Texans. This season, however, even with a rookie quarterback under center, this team still manages to play without him, just as they have done withour Andre Johnson and Arian Foster for a few games earlier this season. What's the difference? Simple: the Texans this year have a really oog defense. Since the team hired Wade Phillips as their new defensive coordinator in the offseason, this once young and promising defense has gone from one of the most dissapointing in the league to one of the best. They're one of the two only teams to have a total yards allowed average of less than 275 yards per game (the other one is Pittsburgh), they have limited opposing running back to less than 90 yards a game, and (most importantly) their pass rush (which was a laughing stock in 2010) is now ranked third in the league. If there's any reason why they will make their first ever playoff appearance and why they won't let the Titans catch up on them in the AFC South, it would be because of that (and their relatively easy schedule ahead).

THE ELITE

6.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3)
There really isn't anything new to say about them that I didn't say in the week 8 power rankings. The team is good, and as long as Tom Brady is healthy and under center this team will continue to be good. But that pass rush (giving up a league worst 310 yards per game) really needs to improve if they want to be able to defeat the teams ranked ahead of them on my list.

5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-3)
Anytime a defense looks as good as Pittsburgh's defense has been throughout the year (currently #1 in total yards) can only mean one thing: that the team's quest for an AFC Championship repeat is looking very good at this point.

4. BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3)
For the Ravens, they currently get the edge over Pittsburgh as the top team in the AFC for two reasons: 1) they've beaten the Steelers not once, but twice in a span of two months, and they've had many other impressive wins this season includes ones against the Jets, the Texans with Matt Schaub, and the 49ers most recently, and b) they're undefeated at home this year. Maybe if they took their much more easier lookier games this season (against the Titans, against the Jaguars, and against the Seahawks) more seriously, you could make the case that they would currently be joining Green Bay as the league's only 12-0 football teams. However, Joe Flacco has historically been a terrible playoff quarterback in his first three years in the league, so while I have them as the best team in the AFC now, it doesn't neccessarily mean that I see them holding the Lamar Hunt trophy come late-January.

3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-3)
The one thing that would make me cautious if I was a Saints fan is the fact that outside of playing fantastically in the Superdome, the team occasionally does struggle on the road, with all three of their losses coming at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay and (still shockingly) at St. Louis. Not good if they're going to have to play on the road during the playoffs. Otherwise, with Drew Brees still playing some potentially record-breaking football at the moment (he just needs to average over 264 yards in the next four games in order to break Dan Marino's single season passer rating record), expect this team to continue to play very well heading into the twilight of the season.

2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (10-2)
For the first time since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers have clinched a playoff spot by winning the NFC West. If they can continue to play great defensively and rushing the ball well, then I have no reason to believe that their happiness this season will continue for many more weeks to come.

THE UNDEFEATED ELITE

1.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-0)
Final four remaining games this season: a winnable game at home against Oakland, a winnable game on the road against Kansas City, a winnable game on Christmas Day at home against the Bears (even more winnable if Jay Cutler remains injured), and a winnable game at home against Detroit to head into the playoffs. This is a 16-0 team waiting to happen, folks. All they need to do is to avoid getting a bunch of their players (especially Aaron Rodgers) injured and chickening out like the Colts did in 2009, and they should be all set.

And there you have it. Four weeks left, and this is how I rank each and every team in the league. As always, you're free to proclaim your agreements/disagreements with the list in the comments. Now, let's get down to why we're all here, shall we? Here are my quick predictions for each of the upcoming games for week 14 of the NFL season:

(Note: game times are based on the Central time zone)

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): Thursday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
(-16.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore (My LOCK of the Week)
mj50's pick: Baltimore

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
(-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston (My UPSET Pick)
mj50's pick: Houston

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
(-9): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
mj50's pick: New York

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
(-8): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
mj50's pick: Detroit

New Orleans Saints
(-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
mj50's pick: Tennessee

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins
(-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia (My "Not so sure" pick)
mj50's pick: Miami

New England Patriots (-8) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
mj50's pick: New England

Atlanta Falcons
(-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
mj50's pick: Carolina

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
(EVEN): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tampa Bay
mj50's pick: Jacksonville

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Francisco
mj50's pick: Arizona

Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos
(-3.5): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Denver
mj50's pick: Denver

Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers (-11): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
mj50's pick: Green Bay

Buffalo Bills vs. San Diego Chargers (-7): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
mj50's pick: San Diego

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
(-3.5): Sunday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Dallas
mj50's pick: Dallas

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
(-5.5): Monday- 7:35 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
mj50's pick: Seattle

mj15 last week: 11-5
mj50 last week: 14-2
mj15 overall in 2011: 134-58
mj50 overall in 2011: 127-65

We're officially in the home stretch of the regular season, gang! Hope you're just as excited about the games as I am! Next week, this column should get back to it's regularly scheduled program, with a recap of my results for this week's picks and a list of predictions for week 15. Until then, enjoy the weekend of pigskin!

Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15





If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.

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