THE PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
AFC
Clinched: At this point, two out of the four divisions and all but one spot in the playoffs have been clinched in the AFC. For the 9th time in the last 11 years, the New England Patriots are your AFC East champions (and will at least have the #2 seed), while the Houston Texans will be playing in the postseason for the first time in franchise history as AFC South champions. In additions, Houston's 5 loss record has also made them the AFC's #3 seed no matter what happens this week. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers of the AFC North have each secured themselves at least a wild card berth.
Still Yet to be Decided:
1. The AFC West: With 8-7 records, both the Broncos and the Raiders are tied for the AFC West record. For the Broncos, clinching the AFC West is the only way for them to make it to the postseason while the Raiders still have a chance to make the postseason with a wild card berth. To win the division, Denver needs just a win, a Raiders loss, or a tie for both them and Oakland. For the Raiders to win, however, they need both a win/tie and a Broncos loss.
2. The AFC North: As mentioned, both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, with identical 11-4 records, have both clinched playoff spots. It's just a matter of who wins the divisions. Because Baltimore swept the Steelers this season, all they need is either a win or a Pittsburgh loss. If they lose, and Pittsburgh wins or ties, then the Steelers will win the division. Loser gets the #5 seed.
3. The #1 seed:
-New England: Win or losses from both Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
- Baltimore: Win the AFC north, have New England lose.
- Pittsburgh: Same scenario as Baltimore.
4. The #6 seed:
- Cincinnati: A win, a loss from the Raiders and Jets, or a loss from the Broncos and Jets.
- Oakland: A win and losses from the Titans and Bengals, or a win, a Bengals loss, and a Jets win
- New York Jets: a win and losses from the Titans, Raiders and Bengals, or a win and losses from the Titans, Broncos and Bengals.
- Tennessee: a) Wins from them and the Jets, losses from the Bengals and Raiders. b) Wins from them and the Jets, losses from the Bengals and Broncos. c) Wins from them, the Raiders and the Broncos and losses from the Bengals and Jets.
NFC
Clinched: The playoff picture is a lot more clearer in the NFC, where five out of six playoff spots have been determined. The Green Bay Packers have secured both the NFC North and the #1 seed, the San Francisco 49ers have clinched the NFC West, the New Orleans Saints have clinched the NFC South, and both the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions have the two wild card spots, with Detroit securing the #5 seed and Atlanta the #6 seed. There's only one playoff spot left, and only two teams (Dallas and the New York Giants) are eligible to win it.
Still Yet to be Determined:
1. The NFC East: Pretty simple explanation as to who gets this one. Both the Cowboys and the Giants square off against one another this week. The winner of that game gets the division and the #4 seed.
2. The #2 seed: If the 49ers win or the Saints lose, than San Francisco becomes the #2 seed and earns that 1st round bye. If the 49ers lose and the Saints win, however, then New Orleans gets that coveted #2 seed. The loser of this "contest" will get the #3 seed.
Hope I made that clearer for you. And if not, well then screw you! Otherwise, here are some other things that I find interesting to watch New Year's Day:
- The single season NFL passing record: Last Monday against the Falcons, Saints QB Drew Brees passed Dan Marino's record for most yards thrown in a single season with 5,087 yards and with a game still left to play. But here's the crazy thing: he might not have the record by the end of this Sunday! Patriots quarterback Tom Brady currently has 4,897 passing yards, only 190 yards less than Brees, and he also has a chance this week to break Marino's record. So, if Brady can throw for 200 more yards this week than Brees this week, that means we could also be seeing the stat category's second new record holder in a span of seven days! It's like the 1998 home run chase with McGwire and Sosa, only it gives sportswriters less of an urge to wax over 2,000 words poetically about it.
- The final push for MVP: Currently, the two frontrunners in the race for MVP are Drew Brees and Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, with Tom Brady (last year's MVP) as the dark horse. Personally, unless he has an atrocious game this week, I think that Rodgers and his higher passer rating has it locked up in the bag, although I wouldn't mind co-MVP honors between him and the league's current record-breaking darling.
- Revenge of the Neckbeard?: Chiefs QB Kyle Orton is coming back to Denver to face the Broncos, the team that released him in favor of Tim Tebow back in November. Don't think that he isn't going to come into this game for one minute with revenge on his mind and with the goal of ruining his former team's chances at a playoff berth.
- The final push for the #1 pick: The Colts and the Rams, both 2-14, are the two teams left that have the chance of winning the Suck for Luck sweepstakes and claiming the coveted #1 pick for the 2012 draft. The Colts, who was the frontrunner for most of the season before suddenly deciding to go on a two game winning streak in arguably the most inconvenient time for them to do so, just need a loss or a Rams win if they want to be able to get it. If the Colts win and the Rams lose, then St. Louis will be receiving their 2nd #1 pick in the last three seasons.
-Potential last game for certain coaches: So far this season, only three coaches have been (deservedly) fired from their gig: Jack Del Rio, Todd Haley, and Tony Sparano. Current head coaches on the Hot Seat include Jim Caldwell, Norv Turner, Chan Gailey, Mike Shanahan, Andy Reid, Raheem Morris, Steve Spagnuolo, Pat Shurmur, Andy Reid, and whichever coach loses the Cowboys/Giants matchup, although the final two mentioned have a far less chance of getting fired than the others mentioned.
- Final Games for Players That Once Mattered: Jason Taylor, the defensive end of the Dolphins who has been a veteran of the league for 15 years, has announced that this Sunday's game will be last after a career that has included over 150 sacks, multiple Pro Bowl appearances, and a Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2006. Meanwhile, one of the players his Dolphins is facing, Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson has been doing nothing with the Jets, and will probably have no other team signing him once his contract is up. Will LDT see this as a sign to retire, and play his last game as well? We shall see.
So, with that all settled, how's about time that we finally get down to the God damn picks? So, I'm looking back at last week's picks and seems that...wait, what the hell? A 15-1 record for mj50?!?! That's the highest one week total that any one of us had in the three years that I've been doing this column! Are you meaning to tell me that my father, who still at this age doesn't know which team plays in St. Louis (not joking), managed to get all but one game wrong last week? And that he would've had a perfect week had the Cowboys won against the Eagles? And that he moved four games closer to the season lead (I had an 11-5 record by comparison, meaning that I'm only leading by three games, with a 166-74 record to his 163-77 record). Wow, maybe after two straight seasons of losing to me, that this is the year where the old man finally pulls off the upset after all!
But enough about our little season-long battle that only we care about. Let's get on to what you care about, and reveal to you our picks for week 17. But a fair warning, though: week 17 has usually been one of my toughest weeks when it comes to picking games correctly. After all, there are just so many additional factors found in the final week of the regular season that you normally don't ever see, specifically playoff teams sitting out their starters as a precautionary reason. As a result, it can often get tricky as to figuring out which team is going to play how.
Last year was a prime example of this. The Kansas City Chiefs were AFC West champions in 2010, poised in week 17 to host a Wild Card playoff game no matter the outcome. On the other side, you had the Chicago Bears, last year's NFC North champions and a team that was going to be the NFC's #2 seed no matter how they played against their week 17 opponent (which would be the eventual Super Bowl winner, the Packers). Both teams decided to play their games differently. The Chiefs basically treated it like it was: a meaningless game before the big playoff matchup next week, and ended up giving Oakland the 31-10 blowout victory as a resuly. For the Bears, meanwhile, it was a much different story. They actually had their starters playing for most of the game and actually played competitively to the end against the Packers, losing in a close 10-3 battle.
So, with that in mind, I would totally understand if you suddenly decide to ignore my 70% winning percentage, or the fact that I have finished .500 or better every week this season, and just not care about the picks that I'm about to give. Otherwise...
Let's begin (Note: starting game times are based on the Central time zone):
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
Both of these teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, so it's all about pride this week in this NFC East showdown. For the Eagles, while this season that was supposed to take them Super Bowl contenders thanks to all their notable free agent signings in the lockout-shortened offseason has been nothing short of a disappointment, with the term "Dream Team" taking on a new meaning as each past week rolled along. However, at least they've been ending this season with flashes of what might have been this year, winning three in a row (even last week against the Cowboys when they knew for hours because of the Giants win that they had been eliminated from the postseason) with a healthy Michael Vick and a defense that's actually competent for a change. Maybe they're just playing because they no longer feel the pressure of being one of the league's favorite, or maybe they're just showing their support of Andy Reid by playing hard for him so that he doesn't get fired. Whatever the case, it's been working, and I have a good feeling that they're "too little, too late" winning streak will continue for Philly at home to end the season.
mj50's pick: Washington
San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Francisco
The 49ers (who have been a remarkable 5-0 this season in early afternoon games) want that #2 seed, and the Rams secretly want that #1 pick. When both of these two desires collide this Sunday, I'm confident that this is going to result in both teams helping the other out with a 49ers blowout.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
Since the Lovie Smith era began for the Bears in 2004, two things have happened: a) the Bears make the playoffs ('05, '06, '10), or b) the Bears get eliminate from playoff contention weeks 14-16 and then suddenly start winning when there's no longer any pressure for them to win ('07, '08, '09). The 2004 season was the only exception. This Sunday, I expect the latter trend to repeat itself as the Bears, who thanks to five straight losses have gone from 7-3 to 7-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, face the 3-12 Vikings. Adrian Peterson is expected to have surgery on his leg Friday, meaning that Minnesota's top weapon will be out on Friday, a weapon that they're 0-4 without since 2010. Furthermore, no-longer-a-rookie QB Christian Ponder is no Aaron Rodgers, meaning that he will not be able to make a bunch of complete passes this week against a Bears defense trying to prove that they haven't officially quit as of last week.
The game will probably be ugly, and it will probably be close, but in the end, I expect this Bears team to finally get some mercy from the football gods with a win over their divisional rival. And if not...well, then at least it's better to end the season choking until the very end then it is do so so only when it matters.
mj50's pick: Chicago
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
Man, this was a tough game to choose! In the end, I chose the Lions for three reasons. The first reason is that Detroit is the hotter team going in, winners of three straight (although, admittedly, saying that against a Packers team that's only lost once in the last 370 days isn't very persuasive). The second reason is revenge, with the Lions aiming to try to get back at the Packers for embarrassing them on the national TV stage this past Thanksgiving at their home turf. The final reason I'll call it the "who wants it more?" factor. Green Bay has got everything they wanted locked up: the division, the homefield advantage, everything. The fact that they're not undefeated heading into this means that they officially have nothing to play for. Therefore, I see this Packers team playing it safe, and being one of those playoff teams that rest their starters for safety precautions (and since they've already gotten struck by the injury bug with key players like Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson, I wouldn't blame them if they did). The Lions will try to take advantage of this, and they will exploit this move on their way to a win at Lambeau.
mj50's pick: Detroit
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-8): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
First of all, a big congratulations to Cam Newton on the incredible rookie season that he's had this year on the Panthers. Heading into this game, he is basically poised at this point to receive this year's Rookie of the Year honors, with the rookie record in passing yards, the NFL record in single-season rushing touchdowns for a QB, and by becoming one of the league's most entertaining attractions throughout the year. Basically, in sixteen games this season, he has proven a lot of his doubters heading into April's draft (including me, who foolishly pondered back in May as to whether he would end up as the next Jamarcus Russell).
That said, despite how great Newton has played this season, his team is going to finish the way it has for most of the season, with a loss. The Saints have the better quarterback this season in Brees, the better running game, and the better defense. Furthermore, I have a feeling that, unless they decide to give up in the middle of the action due to the 49ers clobbering the Rams, New Orleans will be playing their best football in the very end just so they can get that #2 seed (or just scare up the Falcons in preparation for their expected matchup in the Wild Card round). Besides, do you know how many wins the Panthers had this year against over .500 teams? Just one, and that was against a Texans team who by then had all but clinched a playoff spot. That's not a good pattern to have going up against one of the league's top contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.
mj50's pick: Carolina
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
If the Houston Texans were a stock, it would be falling heading into the playoffs. Since clinching the division, they've lost two straight games, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are just two of the many players battling through injuries, and their defense hasn't been as reliable as it was earlier in the year. Plus, they're probably going to lose to the Titans this week, who have much more at stake this week. Maybe they will play a lot better, since the Titans could very well be their opponent again next week and they would want to put a stop to this possibility, but my gut just isn't believing in that.
mj50's pick: Houston
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
So, I've got the Colts getting the #1 pick. However, if the Jaguars were savvy, they should do what the Texans and Titans did in the two weeks before and just lose. That way, the Colts would win, subsequently losing them #1 pick and skip on the chance to draft Andrew Luck, giving their divisional rival another great quarterback to annoy them for the next decade. We'll see, though.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (-10.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
As we saw in week 17 last season, the Patriots aren't the kind of team that prefers to sit their starters out on the final game of the regular season, no matter how comfortable they sit atop the standings. I expect them to take care of the #1 seed, and to handily defeat the Bills (with their embarrassing overtime loss in Buffalo week 3 still fresh in their memory, I assume).
mj50's pick: New England
HALFTIME! A season of including stand-up clips in the middle of this column would not be complete without using the hilarity of Chris Rock. So, to commemorate the end of the regular season, here's one of the top working black comedian in all of America, and here he is talking for over two minutes about parents. Enjoy!
Now, just because, here's Jerome Simpson's now-legendary touchdown catch from last week's Bengals game against the Cardinals. I'm guessing [that people who watched this live had the same feeling that people in 1977 felt when they watched Lynn Swan's famous catches in Super Bowl X.
The Bengals should be able to get to the playoffs for that alone! Now, let's get back to the picks...
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Because I'm stubborn, that's why!
mj50's pick: New York
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-11.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Because no matter which players the playoff-bound Falcons use in this game, they'll still outperform this pathetic Buccaneers team. Good lord, what in the world happened to them this season? They looked so promising at the beginning of the year, coming off a season in which they almost made it to the playoffs themselves. Then they lost to the Bears in week 7 and have lost every other game since! I'm guessing that this is what happens when most of your schedule consists of actual good teams, and not like last year where they fooled everybody by winning a bunch of games against inferior teams.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
Last season, the Steelers were also battling with the Ravens in week 17 for the AFC North title with the Browns as their opponent, and they ended crushing Cleveland 41-9. This week, I see the same thing happening again in Cleveland, even with the injuries to Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Throughout the second half of the season, my strategy for picking Bengals game have been simple: look at their opponents record, go with the opponent if they have a .500 record or better, go with Cincinnati if they have an under .500 record. And you know what? That strategy has worked every. Single. Time. And you know what else? I'm going to end the regular season by following this exact same strategy, picking against the Ravens because they have an over .500 record and are heading to the postseason, costing Cincy's chance of that wild card berth for good.
Not good enough of an explanation, you say? Forgetting the fact that this is a must-win for the Bengals and that they're playing this game at home, you say? Alright, well, then I guess I will say that the Ravens will win by mentioning how they defeated Cincinnati earlier this year, 31-24. Besides, Baltimore is coming into this game wanting to win just as much, in my opinion. After all, they're one win away from a first round bye after three straight years of playing in the playoffs as a road team who finished second place in the division. You don't think that they really want the chance to host a playoff game at their home turf for the first time since the 2006 season? Because I do. And do you really think that they don't want to win the division all while ruining their division rival's chances of getting a playoff berth of there own to get it? Personally, I think that's quite enough motivation to propel a talented team like Baltimore to a win.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
Give credit to both of these teams for staying in contention for postseason for as long as they did (each still had a chance to sneak into the postseason until they both lost in week 16), even after both started the season off rather poorly. Anyways, I think that Marshawn Lynch is going to be the factor that propels the Seahawks to victory (how original!), as the man with the Skittles Adidas shoes should be able to have a good day against a Cardinals defense with injuries to rookie phenom Patrick Peterson and Kerry Rhodes, to name a few. Now let's get onto the more interesting games...
mj50's pick: Seattle
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Kansas City
After two straight (embarrassing) losses to both the Patriots and the Bills, the Denver Broncos are now coming back home in a game with the favorable "win and you're in" situation. However, that win is going to come tough, as they're going up against a Chiefs team that has been rejuvenated since Romeo Crennel replaced Todd Haley, and looking to play spoiler to their division foe's playoff hopes. As with the majority of Broncos games that have featured Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this game will likely come down to the last minute, probably with Tebow needing to use some of his patented last minute comebacks in order to secure a victory. But if you ask me, I think the "Tebow Time" will have run out of its earlier magic this time around. As NFL.com's Bucky Brooks points out, the Patriots and the Bills have given the Chiefs defense (which has been fairly impressive as of late, causing trouble for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and then limiting the Raiders to 16 points a week ago) a blueprint to stop Denver's offense. Also, I have a feeling that Kyle Orton will be able to show the city of Denver just what they were missing by dropping him, doing just enough on the offensive side of the ball to lead the Chiefs to victory and some cold-hearted revenge courtesy of the Broncos.
mj50's pick: Denver
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
Oakland will win the division (at least, in my opinion), but that division title won't come cheap. Like the Chiefs, the Chargers will try to play spoiler against their divisional opponent, and they certainly have the right weapons to do so, from Pro Bowl QB Phillip Rivers to Ryan Matthews, who has been playing great as of late and I think should do a good job against Oakland's poor rushing defense. But in the end, I see Michael Bush having a good game, I see Carson Palmer showing just why the Raiders traded for him in October, I see the whole team rallying behind the idea of honoring Al Davis by getting the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2002, and I see the Raiders coming out with a win because of it all.
mj50's pick: Oakland
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (-3): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
For me, the winner of this NFC East championship game was written down in stone on Christmas Eve with how both teams played in their respective games. The Giants were in a must win situation, taking on their inner-state rival in a "road" game that they were favored to lose by, and came out of this one looking marvelous. The Giants defeated the Jets 29-14, and they did so with an inspiring performance. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were at home, and playing a team that had already known before kickoff that they were eliminated from playoff contention. Yet what did they do? They lost, with their offense failing to get more than a touchdown. Besides, it's Tony Romo in a critical December matchup. History is not on that man's side to suddenly play clutch football.
mj50's pick: New York
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: New England over Buffalo
The Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson Upset of the Week: Kansas City over Denver
The "Community" vs. "Parks and Recreations" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: New York Jets over Miami
mj15's Projected Wild Card Matchups:
-AFC
#6 Tennessee Titans vs. #3 Houston Texans
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #4 Oakland Raiders
BYE: #1 New England Patriots, #2 Baltimore Ravens
-NFC
#6 Atlanta Falcons vs. #3 New Orleans Saints
#5 Detroit Lions vs. #4 New York Giants
BYE: #1 Green Bay Packers, #2 San Francisco 49ers
mj50's Projected Wild Card Matchups:
-AFC
#6 New York Jets vs. #3 Houston Texans
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #4 Denver Broncos
BYE: #1 New England Patriots, #2 Baltimore Ravens
- NFC
#6 Atlanta Falcons vs. #3 New Orleans Saints
#5 Detroit Lions vs. #4 New York Giants
BYE: #1 Green Bay Packers, #2 San Francisco 49ers
Well, that's all I've got for this week. Be sure to stop by next weekend for the results of my week 17 picks and for the unveiling of my predictions for the wild card weekend of the NFL playoffs. The glorious NFL playoffs are upon us, friends! I hope that you join me for my analysis of its first four matchups. Until then, enjoy the New Years celebration, and enjoy this weekend's games!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
- Final Games for Players That Once Mattered: Jason Taylor, the defensive end of the Dolphins who has been a veteran of the league for 15 years, has announced that this Sunday's game will be last after a career that has included over 150 sacks, multiple Pro Bowl appearances, and a Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2006. Meanwhile, one of the players his Dolphins is facing, Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson has been doing nothing with the Jets, and will probably have no other team signing him once his contract is up. Will LDT see this as a sign to retire, and play his last game as well? We shall see.
So, with that all settled, how's about time that we finally get down to the God damn picks? So, I'm looking back at last week's picks and seems that...wait, what the hell? A 15-1 record for mj50?!?! That's the highest one week total that any one of us had in the three years that I've been doing this column! Are you meaning to tell me that my father, who still at this age doesn't know which team plays in St. Louis (not joking), managed to get all but one game wrong last week? And that he would've had a perfect week had the Cowboys won against the Eagles? And that he moved four games closer to the season lead (I had an 11-5 record by comparison, meaning that I'm only leading by three games, with a 166-74 record to his 163-77 record). Wow, maybe after two straight seasons of losing to me, that this is the year where the old man finally pulls off the upset after all!
But enough about our little season-long battle that only we care about. Let's get on to what you care about, and reveal to you our picks for week 17. But a fair warning, though: week 17 has usually been one of my toughest weeks when it comes to picking games correctly. After all, there are just so many additional factors found in the final week of the regular season that you normally don't ever see, specifically playoff teams sitting out their starters as a precautionary reason. As a result, it can often get tricky as to figuring out which team is going to play how.
Last year was a prime example of this. The Kansas City Chiefs were AFC West champions in 2010, poised in week 17 to host a Wild Card playoff game no matter the outcome. On the other side, you had the Chicago Bears, last year's NFC North champions and a team that was going to be the NFC's #2 seed no matter how they played against their week 17 opponent (which would be the eventual Super Bowl winner, the Packers). Both teams decided to play their games differently. The Chiefs basically treated it like it was: a meaningless game before the big playoff matchup next week, and ended up giving Oakland the 31-10 blowout victory as a resuly. For the Bears, meanwhile, it was a much different story. They actually had their starters playing for most of the game and actually played competitively to the end against the Packers, losing in a close 10-3 battle.
So, with that in mind, I would totally understand if you suddenly decide to ignore my 70% winning percentage, or the fact that I have finished .500 or better every week this season, and just not care about the picks that I'm about to give. Otherwise...
Let's begin (Note: starting game times are based on the Central time zone):
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
Both of these teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, so it's all about pride this week in this NFC East showdown. For the Eagles, while this season that was supposed to take them Super Bowl contenders thanks to all their notable free agent signings in the lockout-shortened offseason has been nothing short of a disappointment, with the term "Dream Team" taking on a new meaning as each past week rolled along. However, at least they've been ending this season with flashes of what might have been this year, winning three in a row (even last week against the Cowboys when they knew for hours because of the Giants win that they had been eliminated from the postseason) with a healthy Michael Vick and a defense that's actually competent for a change. Maybe they're just playing because they no longer feel the pressure of being one of the league's favorite, or maybe they're just showing their support of Andy Reid by playing hard for him so that he doesn't get fired. Whatever the case, it's been working, and I have a good feeling that they're "too little, too late" winning streak will continue for Philly at home to end the season.
mj50's pick: Washington
San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Francisco
The 49ers (who have been a remarkable 5-0 this season in early afternoon games) want that #2 seed, and the Rams secretly want that #1 pick. When both of these two desires collide this Sunday, I'm confident that this is going to result in both teams helping the other out with a 49ers blowout.
mj50's pick: San Francisco
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
Since the Lovie Smith era began for the Bears in 2004, two things have happened: a) the Bears make the playoffs ('05, '06, '10), or b) the Bears get eliminate from playoff contention weeks 14-16 and then suddenly start winning when there's no longer any pressure for them to win ('07, '08, '09). The 2004 season was the only exception. This Sunday, I expect the latter trend to repeat itself as the Bears, who thanks to five straight losses have gone from 7-3 to 7-8 and eliminated from playoff contention, face the 3-12 Vikings. Adrian Peterson is expected to have surgery on his leg Friday, meaning that Minnesota's top weapon will be out on Friday, a weapon that they're 0-4 without since 2010. Furthermore, no-longer-a-rookie QB Christian Ponder is no Aaron Rodgers, meaning that he will not be able to make a bunch of complete passes this week against a Bears defense trying to prove that they haven't officially quit as of last week.
The game will probably be ugly, and it will probably be close, but in the end, I expect this Bears team to finally get some mercy from the football gods with a win over their divisional rival. And if not...well, then at least it's better to end the season choking until the very end then it is do so so only when it matters.
mj50's pick: Chicago
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Detroit
Man, this was a tough game to choose! In the end, I chose the Lions for three reasons. The first reason is that Detroit is the hotter team going in, winners of three straight (although, admittedly, saying that against a Packers team that's only lost once in the last 370 days isn't very persuasive). The second reason is revenge, with the Lions aiming to try to get back at the Packers for embarrassing them on the national TV stage this past Thanksgiving at their home turf. The final reason I'll call it the "who wants it more?" factor. Green Bay has got everything they wanted locked up: the division, the homefield advantage, everything. The fact that they're not undefeated heading into this means that they officially have nothing to play for. Therefore, I see this Packers team playing it safe, and being one of those playoff teams that rest their starters for safety precautions (and since they've already gotten struck by the injury bug with key players like Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson, I wouldn't blame them if they did). The Lions will try to take advantage of this, and they will exploit this move on their way to a win at Lambeau.
mj50's pick: Detroit
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-8): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
First of all, a big congratulations to Cam Newton on the incredible rookie season that he's had this year on the Panthers. Heading into this game, he is basically poised at this point to receive this year's Rookie of the Year honors, with the rookie record in passing yards, the NFL record in single-season rushing touchdowns for a QB, and by becoming one of the league's most entertaining attractions throughout the year. Basically, in sixteen games this season, he has proven a lot of his doubters heading into April's draft (including me, who foolishly pondered back in May as to whether he would end up as the next Jamarcus Russell).
That said, despite how great Newton has played this season, his team is going to finish the way it has for most of the season, with a loss. The Saints have the better quarterback this season in Brees, the better running game, and the better defense. Furthermore, I have a feeling that, unless they decide to give up in the middle of the action due to the 49ers clobbering the Rams, New Orleans will be playing their best football in the very end just so they can get that #2 seed (or just scare up the Falcons in preparation for their expected matchup in the Wild Card round). Besides, do you know how many wins the Panthers had this year against over .500 teams? Just one, and that was against a Texans team who by then had all but clinched a playoff spot. That's not a good pattern to have going up against one of the league's top contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.
mj50's pick: Carolina
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
If the Houston Texans were a stock, it would be falling heading into the playoffs. Since clinching the division, they've lost two straight games, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are just two of the many players battling through injuries, and their defense hasn't been as reliable as it was earlier in the year. Plus, they're probably going to lose to the Titans this week, who have much more at stake this week. Maybe they will play a lot better, since the Titans could very well be their opponent again next week and they would want to put a stop to this possibility, but my gut just isn't believing in that.
mj50's pick: Houston
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
So, I've got the Colts getting the #1 pick. However, if the Jaguars were savvy, they should do what the Texans and Titans did in the two weeks before and just lose. That way, the Colts would win, subsequently losing them #1 pick and skip on the chance to draft Andrew Luck, giving their divisional rival another great quarterback to annoy them for the next decade. We'll see, though.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (-10.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
As we saw in week 17 last season, the Patriots aren't the kind of team that prefers to sit their starters out on the final game of the regular season, no matter how comfortable they sit atop the standings. I expect them to take care of the #1 seed, and to handily defeat the Bills (with their embarrassing overtime loss in Buffalo week 3 still fresh in their memory, I assume).
mj50's pick: New England
HALFTIME! A season of including stand-up clips in the middle of this column would not be complete without using the hilarity of Chris Rock. So, to commemorate the end of the regular season, here's one of the top working black comedian in all of America, and here he is talking for over two minutes about parents. Enjoy!
Now, just because, here's Jerome Simpson's now-legendary touchdown catch from last week's Bengals game against the Cardinals. I'm guessing [that people who watched this live had the same feeling that people in 1977 felt when they watched Lynn Swan's famous catches in Super Bowl X.
The Bengals should be able to get to the playoffs for that alone! Now, let's get back to the picks...
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Because I'm stubborn, that's why!
mj50's pick: New York
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-11.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Because no matter which players the playoff-bound Falcons use in this game, they'll still outperform this pathetic Buccaneers team. Good lord, what in the world happened to them this season? They looked so promising at the beginning of the year, coming off a season in which they almost made it to the playoffs themselves. Then they lost to the Bears in week 7 and have lost every other game since! I'm guessing that this is what happens when most of your schedule consists of actual good teams, and not like last year where they fooled everybody by winning a bunch of games against inferior teams.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
Last season, the Steelers were also battling with the Ravens in week 17 for the AFC North title with the Browns as their opponent, and they ended crushing Cleveland 41-9. This week, I see the same thing happening again in Cleveland, even with the injuries to Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley.
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
Throughout the second half of the season, my strategy for picking Bengals game have been simple: look at their opponents record, go with the opponent if they have a .500 record or better, go with Cincinnati if they have an under .500 record. And you know what? That strategy has worked every. Single. Time. And you know what else? I'm going to end the regular season by following this exact same strategy, picking against the Ravens because they have an over .500 record and are heading to the postseason, costing Cincy's chance of that wild card berth for good.
Not good enough of an explanation, you say? Forgetting the fact that this is a must-win for the Bengals and that they're playing this game at home, you say? Alright, well, then I guess I will say that the Ravens will win by mentioning how they defeated Cincinnati earlier this year, 31-24. Besides, Baltimore is coming into this game wanting to win just as much, in my opinion. After all, they're one win away from a first round bye after three straight years of playing in the playoffs as a road team who finished second place in the division. You don't think that they really want the chance to host a playoff game at their home turf for the first time since the 2006 season? Because I do. And do you really think that they don't want to win the division all while ruining their division rival's chances of getting a playoff berth of there own to get it? Personally, I think that's quite enough motivation to propel a talented team like Baltimore to a win.
mj50's pick: Baltimore
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
Give credit to both of these teams for staying in contention for postseason for as long as they did (each still had a chance to sneak into the postseason until they both lost in week 16), even after both started the season off rather poorly. Anyways, I think that Marshawn Lynch is going to be the factor that propels the Seahawks to victory (how original!), as the man with the Skittles Adidas shoes should be able to have a good day against a Cardinals defense with injuries to rookie phenom Patrick Peterson and Kerry Rhodes, to name a few. Now let's get onto the more interesting games...
mj50's pick: Seattle
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Kansas City
After two straight (embarrassing) losses to both the Patriots and the Bills, the Denver Broncos are now coming back home in a game with the favorable "win and you're in" situation. However, that win is going to come tough, as they're going up against a Chiefs team that has been rejuvenated since Romeo Crennel replaced Todd Haley, and looking to play spoiler to their division foe's playoff hopes. As with the majority of Broncos games that have featured Tim Tebow as their quarterback, this game will likely come down to the last minute, probably with Tebow needing to use some of his patented last minute comebacks in order to secure a victory. But if you ask me, I think the "Tebow Time" will have run out of its earlier magic this time around. As NFL.com's Bucky Brooks points out, the Patriots and the Bills have given the Chiefs defense (which has been fairly impressive as of late, causing trouble for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and then limiting the Raiders to 16 points a week ago) a blueprint to stop Denver's offense. Also, I have a feeling that Kyle Orton will be able to show the city of Denver just what they were missing by dropping him, doing just enough on the offensive side of the ball to lead the Chiefs to victory and some cold-hearted revenge courtesy of the Broncos.
mj50's pick: Denver
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders (-3): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Oakland
Oakland will win the division (at least, in my opinion), but that division title won't come cheap. Like the Chiefs, the Chargers will try to play spoiler against their divisional opponent, and they certainly have the right weapons to do so, from Pro Bowl QB Phillip Rivers to Ryan Matthews, who has been playing great as of late and I think should do a good job against Oakland's poor rushing defense. But in the end, I see Michael Bush having a good game, I see Carson Palmer showing just why the Raiders traded for him in October, I see the whole team rallying behind the idea of honoring Al Davis by getting the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2002, and I see the Raiders coming out with a win because of it all.
mj50's pick: Oakland
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (-3): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
For me, the winner of this NFC East championship game was written down in stone on Christmas Eve with how both teams played in their respective games. The Giants were in a must win situation, taking on their inner-state rival in a "road" game that they were favored to lose by, and came out of this one looking marvelous. The Giants defeated the Jets 29-14, and they did so with an inspiring performance. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were at home, and playing a team that had already known before kickoff that they were eliminated from playoff contention. Yet what did they do? They lost, with their offense failing to get more than a touchdown. Besides, it's Tony Romo in a critical December matchup. History is not on that man's side to suddenly play clutch football.
mj50's pick: New York
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: New England over Buffalo
The Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson Upset of the Week: Kansas City over Denver
The "Community" vs. "Parks and Recreations" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: New York Jets over Miami
mj15's Projected Wild Card Matchups:
-AFC
#6 Tennessee Titans vs. #3 Houston Texans
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #4 Oakland Raiders
BYE: #1 New England Patriots, #2 Baltimore Ravens
-NFC
#6 Atlanta Falcons vs. #3 New Orleans Saints
#5 Detroit Lions vs. #4 New York Giants
BYE: #1 Green Bay Packers, #2 San Francisco 49ers
mj50's Projected Wild Card Matchups:
-AFC
#6 New York Jets vs. #3 Houston Texans
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #4 Denver Broncos
BYE: #1 New England Patriots, #2 Baltimore Ravens
- NFC
#6 Atlanta Falcons vs. #3 New Orleans Saints
#5 Detroit Lions vs. #4 New York Giants
BYE: #1 Green Bay Packers, #2 San Francisco 49ers
Well, that's all I've got for this week. Be sure to stop by next weekend for the results of my week 17 picks and for the unveiling of my predictions for the wild card weekend of the NFL playoffs. The glorious NFL playoffs are upon us, friends! I hope that you join me for my analysis of its first four matchups. Until then, enjoy the New Years celebration, and enjoy this weekend's games!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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