On Thursday morning, the nominations for this year's upcoming Primetime Emmy Awards were announced, ending weeks of anticipation with yet another slate of no-brainers, general surprises, and awards snubs. Previous Emmy favorites like "Mad Men," "Breaking Bad," "Modern Family," "30 Rock" and "Downton Abbey" led the pack in nominees, while newcomers such as "American Horror Story" (a miniseries, apparently) and "Homeland were honored as well.Here at The mj15 Blog, it has been our tradition since its conception to break down each of the major categories and select a winner, and this year is no different (although it will be the last time), even if the actual award givings aren't for another two months. So, let's get right down to it. ...
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: "Mad Men"
Remember how I said in last year's Emmys prediction column that there would come a time when the reign of "Mad Men" over this category would finally be brought to an end? Well, this September might be the time when this actually happens. Not only is "Breaking Bad" back in the field with 13 nominations of its own, but now you have "Homeland" entering the field, the freshman darling who already picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice TV award for this category, among others. Plus, the show only picked up one other award last year besides Outstanding Drama Series, and that was only the award for the best hairstyling (the lowest amount of awards the show has ever received at the Emmys), so there's also the possibility that maybe the ATAS is getting tired of rewarding this series after four seasons.
And yet, despite all of this, I still think that this series is still going to come away as the victor for the fifth year in the row. To quote Alan Sepinwall, the show is "the perfect Emmy storm: nostalgic enough for the older voters to latch onto, cool enough for the younger voters, great enough for both." Besides, it's not like this season was that bad for it to not re-claim its crown at this year's Emmys. As a matter of fact, I thought that this season was pretty great: experimental, dark yet filled with plenty of laughs, moving, and showing its writers at their most confident.
Should Win: "Breaking Bad"
If there was a season of television that I found to be better than the fifth season of "Mad Men," it would have to be the brilliant fourth season of "Breaking Bad." Simply a remarkable piece of television all around, from its superb acting to its unbeatable tension. If there was any year for the show to come away from the primetime telecast with anything other than a few acting awards, it would be this one.
Other Thoughts:
a. A truly landmark year in the history of the Emmys, as this was the first time ever that the nominations for Outstanding Drama Series did not include a show from the four major broadcast networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, and FOX), which is a bit of a surprise considering how many thought that "The Good Wife" might get one. Instead, this year's nominees all come mostly from the cable networks and PBS.
b. Overall, I'd say that the Emmys got it largely right to the point where I'm not even bothered by the inclusion of "Downton Abbey" over, say, the third season of "Justified." Better to have "Downton Abbey" then a show like "Dexter," which would have definitely angered me.
c. If "Mad Men" wins, it will become the first time ever that a series has won this category five times. Currently, the show remains tied with "Hill Street Blues," "L.A. Law" and "The West Wing" at four, so if you're one of those people who enjoys rooting for history, a victory for "Mad Men" would be it.
d. If I were to officially rank the shows nominated based on the chances they have of winning in September, I would have to go with "Mad Men" and "Homeland" neck-and-neck at the top, followed by "Breaking Bad," "Downton Abbey," "Boardwalk Empire" and finally "Game of Thrones." Now, if we're talking about ranking each of these shows based on quality, I would have to go:
1. "Breaking Bad" season four
2. "Mad Men" season five
3. "Homeland" season one
(small gap)
4. "Boardwalk Empire" season two
5. "Game of Thrones" season two
(large gap)
6. "Downton Abbey" series two
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: "Modern Family"
Considering how this show picked up more nominations than any other in its category, I have a good feeling that the continued strong support by the ATAS will propel it to a third straight victory. All in all, this is like taking "Schindler's List" to win Best Picture in '94: a lock.
Should Win: "Veep"
BECAUSE IT'S F*CKING PRIMORDIAL, and also because I thought it was the best freshman comedy of the season. In eight episodes this season, "The Thick of It" creator Armando Ianucci and Simon Blackwell gave a very entertaining, yet cynical, look at American politics through the office of a fictional female vice president. The writing was sharp, the work by the actors were superb, and the show's various swearing were so good, they were downright poetic.
Other Thoughts:
a. Another one of the nominees that I think deserves a win, besides "Veep," would have to be "30 Rock." The show has had itself a bit of a renaissance since season five, and this season saw some of the funniest episodes they have ever aired, including "Leap Day" and "Live From Studio 6H."
b. How does a show like "Louie" not pick up a nomination for Outstanding Comedy Series when it did end up getting nominations for Outstanding Actor, Outstanding Directing, and Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series? Does the ATAS have some unwritten rule to not give an FX series Outstanding Comedy/Outstanding Drama nomination no matter how good they are? And for that matter, why does a show like 'Veep" get nominated with less nominations in other categories than "Louie"? The Primetime Emmys, ladies and gentlemen!
c. It's really amazing to see how different the nominees look this year compared to last year. Three comedies nominated from 2011 have not gotten a repeat, all of them replaced by the HBO Big Three of 'Curb,' "Girls," and "Veep." Two of the shows ("The Office," "Glee") have even been shut off from the major categories (deservedly so). But what really surprised me about this year's list was the exclusion of "Parks and Recreation."I thought the show would be just as popular among the voters as last year, especially since the accessibility of the show still remains the same. I know that the show's fourth season was a step down from its third, but then again pretty much everything would be because season three was so goddamn amazing. Overall, season four was still very good and continued the show's claim as one of the medium's bests.
d. [obligatory "Where's 'Community'? mention despite coming to the conclusion long ago that the ATAS voters just don't like the show, period, and I'm just gonna have to accept it].
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Bryan Cranston as Walter White in "Breaking Bad"
When Bryan Cranston steps up to the podium during the telecast to receive what will be his record-tying fourth Emmy in this category, there should be only two words uttered by him: "I won."
Other Thoughts:
a. Poor Jon Hamm. He acted his guts out the past five years as Don Draper without once receiving an Emmy. Even last year, with Cranston actually not eligible to get a nomination and with "The Suitcase" as his terrific submission episode, he still managed to lose to Kyle Chandler. I'm starting to think that his best chance of winning will come two years from now after "Mad Men" wraps up its final season as a career-achievement prize, and even that's not guaranteed (just look at what happened to Steve Carell last year).
b. Besides Cranston and Hamm, Damien Lewis seems like the only other nominee with a really good chance of winning. But then again, I predicted last year that Kyle Chandler will definitely not win the category, and looked at how that turned out!
c. Really surprised to not see Kelsey Grammer nominated for his role in "Boss," Despite his big celebrity status, his Golden Globe victory in January, and his performance on the series being the showy type that Emmy voters seem to love, he still could not beat out Hugh Boneville and the ATAS' even greater love of "Downton Abbey."
d. Speaking of non-nominees, Timothy Olyphant also did not receive a nomination for his work on "Justified" despite his nomination last season, although this came to me more as a disappointment than as a surprise.
e. A big telltale sign as to who might win Outstanding Drama might come in this category. If Damien Lewis upsets Bryan Cranston to win it, I think that's as good of a sign as any that the Emmys loved "Homeland" enough to give it the evening's big prize.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in "Homeland"
It feels like this category has been locked up for Danes ever since the airing of the pilot, when her performance was pointed out as one of the episode's highlights. Overall, Carrie from "Homeland" has been such a fantastic character for Danes to portray her acting chops, a character who's complex, intelligent, tough, caring, somewhat crazy, and a whole other fascinating traits rolled into one. Along with the great job by the writing staff, Danes has helped turn "Homeland's" lead into arguably the best female character on television, and I have a very strong feeling that the ATAS will reward her portrayal just as the Golden Globes and a ton of other award bodies have done in the past year.
Other Thoughts:
a. Overall, not a lot of ton in this category. Along with Danes, you've got some past winners (Julianna Margulies and Glenn Close), a woman who has already been nominated for the category twice before and will continue to be nominated for a few more after this one (Elisabeth Moss), the lead actress from a show the ATAS adores (Michelle Dockery), and an actress who, even though starred in a critically panned series, has a prestigious enough name that it would've been a surprise if she didn't get nominated (Kathy Bates). One big thing to note is the lack of Mariska Hargitay, who isn't nominated in the category for the first time since 2004. However, the Emmys apparently wanted to give accolades to "Downton Abbey" really bad, and if that meant dropping the SVU star in favor of the British series' female lead, then so be it.
b. Just because there weren't any surprises, doesn't mean that there weren't any disappointments. I still would've preferred Emily Rossum to be included from her work on "Shameless," who essentially carries the series at this point, or Anna Torv for her work on "Fringe."
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper in "The Big Bang Theory"
If the Emmys' love is so strong for Parsons that it stopped Steve Carell from what many thought would've been (and should've been) a farewell Emmy from his work on "The Office" last year, what makes you think that it will get any weaker this year without any real threats outside of maybe Alec Baldwin?
Should Win: Louis C.K. as Louie in "Louie"
Some people may overlook the comedian's work on camera in the show, claiming it's nothing special because he's writing his own material to work with and essentially playing himself. However, many of these people seem to forget that it can be pretty tough for most people to portray a character with honest depth and emotion as well as being funny, something that C.K. was able to do really well in season 2 of "Louie" (and one that the ATAS thankfully recognized).
Other Thoughts:
a. Past nominees dominate the category yet again, with three of last year's six nominees (Parsons, C.K., Baldwin) getting another invitation to the show, along with a five time nominee who wasn't nominated in 2011 only because of his absence on air that season (Larry David), and someone who's a rookie in this category but a five time nominee (and 2009 winner) in supporting acting (Jon Cryer). The one newcomer is Don Cheadle, which either tells me that the ATAS actually found his work on "House of Lies" or because of his star power and former Oscar nomination. Somehow, I doubt that it's the former. If "Episodes" had actually aired during the eligibility period, I would've guaranteed you that Matt Leblanc would've gotten another nomination as well.
b. Another year, another snub for Joel McHale, who once again strutted his stuff this past season on "Community" yet gets no recognition in return. Hopefully, this year the Emmys don't decide to give him a consolation prize the equivalent of last year's, when he was part of the "Emmingtons."
c. Other notable non-nominees: Adam Scott for "Parks and Recreation," Garret Dilahunt from "Raising Hope," Elijah Wood for "Wilfred," Zachary Levi for "Chuck," and last year's nominee Johnny Galecki.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in "Veep"
A former winner for her work on "The New Adventures of Old Christine," Louis-Dreyfus this year was the star of HBO's edgy political comedy about the life of a U.S. vice president. What really impressed me about Louis-Dreyfus was the way in which she was able to wonderfully deliver Armando Ianucci's signature dialogue, all while standing out in a series of many stand out actors. She also played the various sides of the Meyer character perfectly, sometimes within seconds of each other. But then again, isn't being a politician these days much like being an actor?
Should Win: Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in "Parks and Recreation"
Because the fact that she has yet to win one already is a travesty.
Other Thoughts:
As mentioned, this field is arguably the strongest among all the acting categories, one that includes a maximum seven nominees, including four former winners. Each of these ladies deserve the nomination for their work, making this one of the few categories where the awards show actually got everything right.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will and Should Win: Giancarlo Esposito as Gus Fring in "Breaking Bad"
Once you take away the gender difference, Esposito is basically this year's Margo Martindale, who won Best Supporting Actress for her work on "Justified" last year. Like Martindale, Esposito is nominated for his first ever Emmy Award after a season of electrifying the small screen by portraying one of the most memorable TV villains of the past ten years. Like Martindale, this is the only chance for the ATAS voters to honor Esposito for his acting in that role. And despite the fact that this year's Supporting Actor category is much tougher than last year's Supporting Actress category, as I still think that he, like Martindale, will come out on top as the victor, a fate completely unlike the character that they played ended up having.
Other Thoughts:
a. Another reason that I think Esposito is going to win is because the Emmy voters have already honored the two men that is his strongest competitors with trophies, Peter Dinklage (2011) and Aaron Paul (2010). Not only that, but both Dinklage and Paul will still have a few more years to pick up Emmys for portraying Tyrion Lannister and Jesse Pinkman respectively. Then again, I used this same logic to pick Steve Carell last year, so this way of thinking hasn't always been rock solid when it comes to predicting such things.
b. This is another category in which the ATAS decided to express their love for "Downton Abbey," giving away a third of their nominations to both Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle. As a result, this led to some questionable snubs, including Walton Goggins, Mandy Patinkin, Andre Braugher, Michael Pitt, John Slattery, Vince Kartheiser, and much more.
c. Once again, I specifically highlight that John Noble failed to get nominated yet again this year, probably because the majority of those who voters had never watched a single episode of "Fringe," and once again, I am going to use this as a reflection on just how much the world sucks.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will Win: Maggie Smith as Violet Crawley, Countess of Grantham in "Downton Abbey"
Considering how she won an acting role for the same character last year back when "Downton Abbey" was still considered to be a mini-series, I doubt that the Emmy voters aren't going to give her the accolades this year, albeit in a category with greater competition.
Should Win: Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris in "Mad Men"
Without hesitation, I thought that Hendricks knocked it out of the park this season over all the other nominees, especially in the episode that she'll probably decide to submit ("The Other Woman").
Other Thoughts:
a. Great to see Anna Gunn nominated for the first time for her work on "Breaking Bad." In a show dominated by a lot of great acting, her seems to have been the most underrated in the first four seasons.
b. I'm kind of surprised by the lack of "Game of Thrones" representation in this category, particularly because the Emmys enjoy the show and because both Maisie Williams and Lena Headey were two of the second season's strong points.
c. Then again, that's pretty much my only complaint in this category. Kind of the weakest among all of the other acting awards in terms of pure talent, if you ask me.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Win: Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy in "Modern Family"
I was switching back and forth between Burrell and co-star Ed O'Neill with this one, because while Burrell won last year and will come into the ceremony as the favorite again this year, there's still a chance that the ATAS might continue spreading their "Modern Family" love by deciding to give a fourth different actor an award this time, as if they were filling out some kind of check list. In the end, I've decided to go with inertia on this one and pick Burrell to repeat.
Should Win: Bill Hader on "Saturday Night Live"
Truly, the MVP of the show for me these past few seasons, a guy who has had the ability to make me love with something as simple as his facial expressions. Always consistent, he's also acted as the savior of many sketches that probably would've sucked without him. He won't win, but it's at least good to see that he's finally been recognized.
Other Thoughts:
a. I'll say it last year and I'll say it again: "Modern Family" does not deserve four nominations in this category. The fact that two-thirds of the nominees are filled up by this one show, while more deserving actors like Nick Offerman weren't able to get in just doesn't make sense.
b. But seriously, how could the Emmy voters look at Nick Offerman's work as the remarkable Ron Swanson since the second season on and decide that he hasn't had one of the six best performances of any supporting actor in any of those years? I hate everything.
c. But wait! My rage at the nominations for this category aren't done yet! Let us not also forget about such talented people not being recognized such as Jim Rash, Danny Pudi, Donald Glover, Chris Pratt, Charlie Day, Adam Pally, Damon Wayans Jr. Tony Hale, Rob McElhenney, and Adam Driver. I'm not saying that you could make a list of six actors better than the ones that were nominated, but...well, actually, that's exactly what I'm saying.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will and Should Win: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy in "Modern Family"
Same situation as with the Supporting Actor category. I really don't feel like elaborating more on it.
Other Thoughts:
a. Overall, this is the category that I probably will care the least about heading into the ceremony. A lot of performances that I liked but didn't love, with no real rooting interest.
b. Don't be so surprised also if Mayim Bialik wins it for her work on "The Big Bang Theory." She also another actress on a comedy beloved by many.
And that's going to do it for part one! Be sure to stop by again later on this week for part two. In the meantime, here's the best of the best from the past week that was...
END OF THE WEEK:
Story of the Week: 12 Shot Dead, 58 Wounded in Aurora Movie Theater During "The Dark Knight Rises" Premier
A senseless tragedy caused by a sick individual to dozens of innocent people.
Unfortunately Timed Movie Trailer of the Week: "Gangster Squad"
The trailer was pulled from screening immediately after this occured (it even aired in Aurora minutes before the shooting) despite appearing for many weeks prior, and rumor has it that Warner Bros. has even decided to shift back the release date until next year, all because of the scene with the movie theater shooting spree. Can't say that I disagree with this.
Video of the Week: "Parking Woman celebrated by drunk german fans"
She maneuvers! She parks! And the crowd goes wild!
Person of the Week: Actor Fred Willard
A few days before the tragic shooting in Aurora, Willard was responsible for the week's most memorable movie theater news when the actor was arrested when he decided to go all Paul Reubens and masturbated in a theater screening a pornographic film. This poses a really interesting question: does Fred Willard know about the Internet?
And that's the way it was! See you later, everyone!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
No comments:
Post a Comment