I'll get to my NFL column in just a paragraph. But before I start, I just want to make a quick note about the future of this weekly column, Due to the return of Thursday Night Football (which, by the way, is one of the NFL's best inventions this decade) and my continually busy weekend schedule, I will now begin posting my weekly NFL picks column on Wednesdays starting next week. Adjust your plans accordingly.
So, as you may know we are in the early November stage the year, meaning not only that the holiday season is dead approaching, but also that we are are halfway through the NFL season. It's basically the time of the years where we actually know which teams are good, mediocre, bad and just terrible, which players are on top of the NFL pantheon, who's coaching job is in jeopardy, etc. Here's some of my opinions:
The Teams
Alright, so basically if your team's names aren't the Colts, the Saints, the Vikings, the Eagles, the Broncos, the Steelers and the Patriots, they're probably a wildcard playoff team at best. I mean, teams like the Cowboys, the Giants, the Bengals, the Texans and the Falcons are okay, but do you really expect that they're going to win the close games against good teams in December and January? Also, I you are a fan of the Raiders, the Bucs, the Browns, the Rams and the Redskins, I would really hope for, at best, a high wildcard pick.
The Players
This year especially has become the year of the veteran QB, as experienced winning quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlesbeger and (gulp) Brett Favre are having some single perfirmances this season. Besides the QBs, though, there really hasn't been anyone that you would say is having quite the career and/or breakout year. The few that aren in that catergory are the ones you usaully expect, like Adrain Peterson, Reggie Wayne, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson with Matt Schaub, Ray Rice and Cedric Benson being the only breakout stars. As for these years rookies, I mean really? Besides Mark Sanchez, this year's class has been uber- weak (considering last year's class where really ten guys could've won the ROY award).
The Games
Musch like this year's rookie class has been this year, thisa year has also been one with a lot of blowouts and just an overall lack in great moments. In fact, there were really two games that stood out, the 12-7 Broncos- Bengals game in week 1 and the 33-31 Ravens- Vikings game in week 6. That's it. Last year, you could've probably named at least 5 at this point of the season.
Miscellaneous
- If you had said that Josh McDaniels and Jim Caldwell would be one of the best rookie head coaches in NFL history to anyone, they might have you thrown out of the discussion you were having. But looke what we have here: we have McDaniels leading a 6-1 Denver teams and Caldwell becoming the first coach/zombie to start of his career 7-0.
- Truly a big flip-flop this season in terms of teams with the best defense. Seriously, who would have thought that the Saints and the Broncos defense would be just absolutly superb, considering that last year the teams they played against at least had 20 points, and that the Giants and the Chargers would be struggling to find an identity.
- Not much of a change in big fantast performers. Like, I mentioned, you have players you'd expect like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlesbeger, MJD, etc. leading in terms of performance with only Matt Schaub, Ray Rice and Cedric Benson having the only breakout season. Then again, this happens nearly every year in fantasy, so really not much has changed.
- A record turnout in TV ratings for the networks. You have the big networks like CBS and FOX averaging at least 25 million viewers every late Sunday afternoon, NBC continually leading the ratings every Sunday night (making it the best program the network has not named "The Office" and "The Biggest Loser") and ESPN just had the Packers-Vikings game a few weeks back as the rating rated program in their networks history, as well as in cable TV history. And they said that TV was hurting due to the economy?
- There seems to have been a change in the way the defintion of a good offense is in the NFL. Usually, a good offense consists of a good QB, one great WR and an okay running back. This year, you have the best offenses including teams that have no running game, yet gain success by spreading the ball around like the Saints, the Colts and the Patriots.
- I have mentioned the Saints and the Broncos a total of 10 times while only mentioning the Patriots, the Giants and the Chargers a combines seven times in my midseason recap. If that's not an example to show how the NFL has been so topst- turvy this season, I don't know what is.
Overall, it was quite an NFL season you wouldn't expect to happen and it will be interesting to see how this will all unflod in the next three moth
Anyways, on to the picks! To recap, I finished the week 9-4, tied with mj50, who also went 9-4. However, I still currently lead lead hime with a 77-39 overall record. As for this week's games... most were actually pretty easy pick. There were some that took some time, but I think I'm going to do pretty well. Of course, that's my feeling every week, so I don't think you should feel confident of the following picks just yet.
Let's begin (note: all game times are based on the Central time zone):
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
Interesting read by ESPN.com's Greg Garber about the bleak state of the Jacksonville Jaguars (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=garber_greg&page=hotread8/Jacksonville/Main). It will be interesting to see how the next few years play out for the franchise. Anyways, problems aside, the Jax still have to play a home game against the Kansas City chiefs. Now, I know that Matt Cassel has a 7-3 record as a starter on the road. However, the Chiefs have the 26th ranked rshing defense, and with Maurice Jones-Drew running like a mad man the last few weeks (I think he rushed for, like, 21 yards per carry last week) expect him to receive the ball as much as possible and single-handily defeat the Chiefs.
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
Yes, I know how great the Ravens defeated the then undefeated Broncos last week, specifically the defense and Joe Flacco. However, over the last few years the Bengals seem to have had the Ravens number when playing at home. They just seem to bring their A-game every time. Seriously, watch highlights of these teams playing each other at Paul Brown stadium over the last ive years, and you know what I mean. And for that reason and that reason alone, I'm going with the Bengals in this one. Sometimes, you just have to go with your gut.
mj50's pick: Cincinnati
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-9): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
I have been a big Peyton Manning fan since 2003. And I gotta say, this is arguably the greatest season he's ever had. Seriously! The number don't lie: 6 out of 7 games with 300+ yards passing, 15 TDs, a 100+ passer rating in nearly 75% of his games, etc. Makes you think how good of a coach Tony Dungy really was. Anyways, though Indy and Houston have played some close games lately, the injury to Owen Daniels, plus the weakened secondary of the Texans will be used in the Colts advantage. In conclusion, I believe that before we head to the tenth week of the season, the Colts will be 8-0 after this Sunday's win over the Texans.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons (-10): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Could this be the week? Could the bye week and the supposed increase in team chemistry help the Redskins start a good winning streak starting this Sunday? In one word... no. The point is, Washington is still as bad as they were two weeks ago. Also, why would anyone to expect a pretty good team like Atlanta to lose after already having lost two in a row. Falcons win... BIG.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
And then there was one. One winless team that is, in the form of the 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not shocking, despite they're mini success in recent years, considering they're still the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which have a history of sucking. Now, while I do believe that they won't go 0-16 (it takes a special kind of suckiness like last year's Lions team and, quite frankly, they still have some talent ), I do beileve that they'll lose this week to Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers (NFL leader in passer rating) alone should give you a reason to believe why. Besides, didn't I mention how much they suck? Packers win... BIG.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
I'll get to the game in about a paragraph. But first, let us remember the last time these two teams met. It was a Monday night in October, 2006. Heading to the 4th quarter, the Bears were trailing 23-3 in a game in which Matt Leinart (if you still believe it) was playing like Tom Brady and Rex Grossman was having a terrible day, having only a 6.0 passer rating and 6 INTs. But, for some reason, after two TDs by the Bears defense after making two turnovers and a Devin Hester punt return for TD with less than 3:00 left, the Bears took the lead. For some reason. they were able to miraculously win in one of the biggest comebacks in Bears history and Monday Night football history. THis, of course, led to then Cardinals coach give one of the greatest postgame rants in history.
Classic. On to the game though: Arizona just plain confuses me. One week, they defeat the Giants, the next week, they lose to the Panthers. However, the Bears aren't that good either. The red zone offense is putrid, the secondary is still weak (anyone can play well against the Browns) and Ron Turner is still one of the worst playcallers in the NFL. It actually took me a while to make this pick. After deliverating, I ended up picking the Bears. The West Coast team playing at 12:00 theory is still as reliable as it always has been.
mj50's pick: Chicago
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-10.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New England
No way the Patriots lose at home after having two weeks to prepare, no matter how good Miami's Wildcat offense actually was the last time the two teams played each other. Period.
mj50's pick: New England
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-13): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
This definitely has an upset alert in the making. I mean, think about it: divisional rivals, Panthers just came off a win over the Cardinals, the Saints are undefeated and everyone is singing their praise, etc. I really wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers wouldn't pull a victory out of the bag in this one. However, I'm still picking the Saints. They just play on a greater level when they're at home. Not to mention that they have the better quarterback and a better defense.
mj50's pick: New Orleans
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10): Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Seattle
This could be one of those Matt Hasselback-single-handily-gives-your-fantasy-team-the-victory type of game for the Seahwks QB. Add the fact that this game is in Qwest Field, and you got yourselves a Seahawks victory waiting to happen. Count on it.
mj50's pick: Seattle
Tennessee Titans vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-4): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
How come is it that 3 out of the last 4 season, the Titans have seemed to play better when they replaced the starting QB? In 2006, they were 0-4 before replacing Kerry Collins with Vince Young eventually finishing 8-4 with Young. In 2008, Young was replaced by Collins after the second game and they went 12-3. Now this year, after starting the season 0-6, the Titans replace Collins with Young again and they ended up winning last week for the first time this year. And, with that in mind, I expect them to see them win again this week on the road against San Fran! Though, if I were you, Vince Young, I'd consider practicing extra hard for next season.
mj50's pick: San Fransisco
San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants (-5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
The Giants just can't lose four in a row. They won't. For goodness sakes, they were the kings of the league at one point this season! Besides, they're at home. What more can I say?
mj50's pick: New York
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Sunady- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
In what is by far the cream of the crop in this week's slate of games, we have two NFC East divisional rivals, the Cowboys and the Eagles, fighting for first place in the division. Perosnally, I don't see how you can't pick the Eagles. They have basically owned the NFC East since mid-season last year. McNabb and the Eagle offense have been unstoppable, the the defense is scary good. Eagles will win, and clinch first place in the NFC East... BIG.
mj50's pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Denver Broncos: Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Denver
It's amazing how a week can change people's perspective of an NFL team. All of a sudden, the Broncos went from comparison of last year's Titans to last year's Jets. Look, they weren't going to win all the times and Kyle Orton was going to be eventually exposed as what he was last year, a game manager at best. On to the game though: though things are looking in Pittsburgh's favor, keep in mind that Orton is a winning percentage beast when playing a game at home. Also, keep in mind that the Steelers defense is statistically worse on the road then at home. With those in mind, plus the homefield advantage with the Broncos will feed off of, I'm taking the Broncos in a slight, but not really, upset.
mj50's pick: Denver
RECAP
The Undertaker at WrestleMania "Lock of the Week":
Atlanta over Washington
The New York Yankees winning this year's World Series (NOT) "Upset of the Week":
Cincinnati over Baltimore
The Stone Cold Steve Austin vs. The Rock "I'm Not Sure" Pick:
New Orleans over Carolina
Week 9 recap, plus week 10 picks coming at you this Wednesday (remember the day change). Until then, enjoy another good week of football, everyone.
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If
you have any opinions on the week nine predictions or anything else on
this post, or if you have any suggestions to mj15 on his next blog
entry, e-mail him at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mail might be addressed on a future post.
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