It's 12:25 a.m. on a Saturday, I'm tired, and I don't feel like writing a monologue about why an 18 game season is a bad idea. So instead, I'm gonna save that topic for sometime later and just go straight to the picks this week. Last week, I finished the week 10-6, making it the third week in a row that I finished with double digit victories (so I am due for some awful under .500 week in picks anytime now). As for mj50, he continued his struggles since correctly picking 12 games in week 1, going 8-8. And if you add up the wins and losses through the first three weeks, I am doing better than mj50 in that department as well with a 31-17 record which is four games better than his 27-21 record. This week, we got 14 games on tap since 4 teams have byes (Kansas City, Minnesota, Dallas and Tampa Bay) and they include Chicago and Pittsburgh all trying to go 4-0, McNabb returning to Philly, St. Louis and Seattle playing to either stay or be on top of the NFC West (no, really), five teams trying to get their first win of the season and a lot of games that look on paper to be one-sided. As always, the game times for this week are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
San Fransisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
Atlanta has the second ranked rushing offense in the league. San Fransisco is ranked fifteen in rushing defense. Atlanta is playing in the Georgia Dome where they are 14-3 under the Matt Ryan/ Mike Smith era. San Fransisco is a West Coast team playing on the road in a game that starts at 10 a.m. San Fransisco time, and many of you veteran readers of this blog know how I feel about any West Coast playing at this time. Atlanta is tied for first since the division and could have started the season off 3-0 had they just scored at least one TD against the Steelers in week 1. San Fransisco, meanwhile, is one of the biggest letdowns in the NFL right now starting off 0-3 when many people (including me) had them as their sexy pick to win the NFC West. In conclusion, this game was a no-brainer to pick.
mj50's pick: Atlanta
New York Jets (-5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
Ladies and gentlemen, LaDainian Tomlinson is back (somewhat)! Last week, he had his most productive game yet in a Jets uniform, rushing for 15 carries, 70 yards and his first rushing TD of the year and taking valuable time away from Shonn Greene. You know what that means... it's electric glide time! Hit it...
(F.Y.I.: I will be posting this video the week after what I felt was a good performance by LDT. And I hope he gets a lot of them. This music video is the Last Supper of unintentionally funny music videos by an athlete.)
Anyways, for a team that took a bunch of crap for their bad performance week 1 against the Ravens you got to give it up to the Jets for bouncing back with two back-to-back wins against tough division opponents (the Patriots and the Dolphins). This goes especially for Mark Sanchez, who went from 74 yards and 0 TDs in the Ravens game to an average of 238 yards and 3 TDs in the last two games. Now, they head to upstate New York to take on a much easier opponent in the Buffalo Bills, who are winless and have given up over 40 points than they produced. So even though the Bills do tend to play much pretty well at times over the years at home more than on the road, I still see this one being a blowout.
mj50's pick: Buffalo
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
Despite winning two in a row and on top of the division, the Bengals have yet to show me that they can be more then just a team that will finish with a wild card spot at best. Their offense's play has mostly to do with it in part because Carson Palmer is off to one of his worst starts in his career and the T.Ochocinco combination (or whatever you call it) not being effective thus far. Heck, even that running game that was one of their shining moments in '09 has been sub-par so far, ranked 18th in the league with only 100 yards per game. That being said, I do see them win against the Browns on Sunday. After all, how can you go against a team that has won 8 straight against one of their AFC North rivals, including three straight against the Browns?
mj50's pick: Cincinnati
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-14): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
Too easy, so instead I'm just gonna waste this time to talk about bye weeks (which starts this week and goes on until week 10), specifically when your favorite team has one. A lot of people hate it (some more than others), but I kind of like it. Sure it screws up your fantasy team, but that's what bench players are for. Also, it's 2-3 less games to screw up every week when making picks and it's one of the few times that you can watch NFL RedZone for the entire day, which is great. And...that's about it. Let's move on.
mj50's pick: Green Bay
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-13.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
I don't care if every team that the defending champs have played this season has played it close with them. The Saints are still much, much better than Carolina and they will win this game. By the way, remember in the offseason when the Panthers released Jake Delholmme because of his poor play last season that included 18 INTs and a QB rating of 59.4. Here are the stats that the Delholmme successors have put through three games:
Matt Moore (the man the Panthers chose over Delholmme): 40.8 % passing, 41.8 QB Rating and 4 INTs.
Jimmy Clausen: 47.9 % passing, 46.1 QB rating and 2 INTs
Yep, it was definitely worth it!
mj50's pick: New Orleans
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Pittsburgh
It's the crowning jewel of the early afternoon games. Two heated divisional rivals, both on top of the AFC so far through three games (Baltimore: 2-1, Pittsburgh:3-0) and led this season by their terrific defenses (Baltimore: ranked 1st overall, Pittsburgh: ranked 6th overall and 3rd in rushing). It should be another hard fought black-and-blue game that this rivalry has been famous more in the past few years, but in the end I see Pittsburgh coming out of the game a perfect 4-0 heading into Roethlisberger's return on 10/17. They have faced numerous obstacles in the first three weeks (starting Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, not getting a TD until overtime in the Atlanta game, not scoring a TD at all in the Tennessee game) but they still finished as victors in every one of their games, so why can't they win again at home? Also, the Steelers have the player that is my early pick for MVP, safety Troy Polamalu, who has been so good this season that he even catches interceptions in the sidelines! Check this out:
mj50's pick: Pittsburgh
Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
Did you know that the Broncos with Kyle Orton as their QB are the top ranked passing offense in the league through three games? Well, it's true! Unfortunately for them, that has been the only thing going in their favor, with the rushing offense averaging 2.5 yards per carry and the defense ranked a below par 18th. I doubt that they can fix those holes this week against the 2-1 and dangerous Tennessee Titans.
mj50's pick: Tennessee
HALFTIME! As you may or may not know, the funny and talented Greg Giraldo died of a pill overdose this week at the age of 44, leaving behind his wife and 4 children. Greg was a very funny and talented comedian from who, from what I have read and heard, was also a very nice man. Fortunately, even though he is now dead, his stand-up and his time on the Comedy Central roasts (which he was a regular in) and on Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn will live on. Here now is a clip of his stand-up. R.I.P., Greg.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) vs. St. Louis Rams: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
The Seahawks look like one of those teams who will be good and exciting to watch at home while pretty bad on the road. So I'm going with the Rams to do the unthinkable...win two games in a row for the first time in nearly two years. It's about damn time, too!
mj50's pick: Seattle
Houston Texans (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Even though I had them winning the game, I wasn't shocked that the Texans lost to the Cowboys. They just came from a very big game against Indy and a come from behind win in Washington, so they must have been a little emotionally worn out by the time they faced that desperate Cowboys team. Now, a week later, I think that Houston should get back to normal this week. That high flying offense of Matt Schaub should be no match for the Raiders who gave up 24 points to a much more inferior Cardinals team last week. Also, even though I don't very much like to repeat what Peter King wrote, but he did bring up a nice stat to use in his picks column involving this game. The Raiders are 24th in rushing defense while giving up 4.6 yards per carry, while Arian Foster of Houston has had 5.9 yards per carry and has led the Texans rushing offense to #5 through week 3. However, because Oakland is a better home team than on the road I expect this one to still be close throughout.
(By the way, is Bruce Gradkowski becoming the most unlikeliest version of Captain Comeback in NFL history? Since he began his tenure in Oakland, he has led the team to two come from behind victories in 5 starts and could have done it a third time had Sebastian Janikowski had not hooked the game winning field goal left. If he isn't, then he certainly has to be put up in the discussion.)
mj50's pick: Oakland
Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
Sure, these two teams have played it close in Jacksonville the past three years. But the Jags are ranked 29th in passing defense through the first three games and are coming off two horrible losses in a row. With that in mind, how do expect me to go with them over a QB like Peyton Manning who can turn fourth round pick Austin Collie into a 150 yards per game wide receiver? Well?
mj50's pick: Jacksonville
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Diego Chargers (-8.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Typical Norv Turner coached start for the Chargers this past September. They were favorites in all three of their games, and only won one of them. But now it's October, where they should start to get their mojo going. Besides, Early Doucet and Steve Breaston will be out for the game and the passing defense for them is terrible, so expect Phillip Rivers and the #1 ranked Chargers offense to have a big game. By the way, how great was Phillip Rivers at the end of the game last week against the Seahawks? Sure he and the team lost that game, but he literally threw four passes in the endzone in the fourth quarter that game (though only a TD and a 2 point conversion came out of it with two of those endzone throws being waived off by penalties). Either the Seahawks passing defense is that bad, or Rivers and the rest of that offense is that good.
mj50's pick: Arizona
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Philadelphia
The McNabb Bowl! How exciting! Unfortunately, I think that once the two teams get settled in this game, it should be all Philadelphia. The Redskins defense has been terrible (ranked dead last in the league) . Now, let's hope that Eagles fans do the right thing this week when Donovan McNabb is first introduced in Lincoln Financial Field in a Redskins uniform and give him a round of applause. They have the right to jeer and boo him all they want once the game starts, but before then they should at least show some respect for his eleven years on the team and for leading them to five NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl. It just seems fair.
mj50's pick: Philadelphia
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants (-3.5): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
My feelings on this Bears team have been torn so far in a good way. First of all, the team has had those moments that shows that they could very well be a good team this year and that this 3-0 start isn't a fluke. Cutler and the passing offense has looked good, their defense reminds me a lot of their 2005/2006 playoff teams at times, Devin Hester as a kick returner has been resurrected and the city just feels a lot better in the fall when they're winning. Heck, even the interceptions that Cutler would have made last year were either dropped or called off because of interceptions. If that's not a sign that this year will be a lot different than the previous, then I don't know what is! However, they were arguably outplayed in two of their first three games (vs. Detroit and vs. Green Bay) but won only because of the refs in those games and that they have yet to win by more than seven points.
(By the way, remember last week when I mentioned that Troy Polamalu is one of the most important defensive players in the NFL? Brian Urlacher should also be added onto that list. That defense has looked a lot better now that he's back to leading the defense after missing all of last year.)
Now as for the game, I do think that the Bears are a better team than the Giants and will win this game to continue to be the NFC's only undefeated team. The New York defense have given up at least thirty points in their first two games and with Cutler and the fifth ranked passing offense coming to town, they should once again have more problems. Oh, and Eli Manning has been putrid the last two games against opponents that were as good as the Bears have been so far. Hopefully this should be the game that the Bears will prove once and for all that they are for real.
mj50's pick: New York
New England Patriots (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins: Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: Miami
The Dolphins have been one of those teams that Tom Brady and the Pats have seemed to play poorly against over the years. Also, there is nothing that the Pats have done in the first three games (especially defensively) that makes me think that they are a better team than Miami.
mj50's pick: Miami
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: New Orleans over Carolina
The Ricky Gervais winning the 2007 Emmy for Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series Upset of the Week: Miami over New England
The "Community" vs. "Parks and Recreations" "I'm Not Sure" Pick: Houston over Oakland
Please come back next week when I will recap my week 4 picks as well as give you my predictions for week 5. Hopefully I should have enough time on my hands this week to post before 3 a.m. or so. Also, enjoy the games, everyone!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are always greatly appreciated.
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