Thanks, Chuck!
Well, the first quarter of the 2010 NFL season has come and gone and what a start it has been. You have the Chiefs as the only remaining undefeated team in the league, the media darling Cowboys and Vikings both 1-2, Randy Moss traded, Kyle Orton as the league leader in passing yards (sorry, Tim Tebow), the rejuvenated Ladainian Tomlinson, Danny Woodhead becoming New England's newest white cult hero, Arian Foster leading the league in rushing and on pace to rush for 2,000 yards, Clay Matthews making opposing offenses his bitch with 7.0 sacks, the Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger story from Deadspin, four winless teams remaining and ten teams coming out of the gates going either undefeated or 3-1. If this is any indication as to how the rest of the season will be, then this should be one of the craziest that the NFL has seen in years.
What's even more crazy is that through four weeks into the season, I have yet to incorrectly predict more than six games per week, including last week when I went 7-7 (mj50 last week? 5-9). So I am expecting a disappointing 4-12 type week at any moment. The question is: will it finally happen this week? We shall see in about two days, but for now here are my picks for the games on tap this week, week 5 of the 2010 regular season. As always, the game times are based on the Central time zone.
Let's begin:
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Baltimore
The Ravens, along with the Jets, the Steelers, the Packers and the Falcons, are my picks for the five best teams in the NFL through week 4. Their defense is spectacular once again (#1 in overall defense and passing defense) and they have had two of the most impressive wins out of any other team this season (on the road against the Jets in week 1, on the road against the Steelers last Sunday). Their offense is the only question mark, but Flacco is starting to get a bit hot (4 TDs, about 500 yards and only 1 INT in the last two games), the WR corps is pretty solid and Ray Rice is still dangerous at RB, so it's not like this is a part of Baltimore that will hurt them as the season goes on. Oh, and they're 3-1. The Broncos, meanwhile, are the opposite of the Ravens. Outside of the passing game which, as I mentioned a moment ago, features the league leader in passing (Kyle Orton), they're either below average or (in the case of their running game) just plain awful in all other areas of the game. Expect to see Baltimore head to their bye a very nice 4-1.
mj50's pick: Denver
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-1.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Jacksonville
I guess this is the part where I mention that Buffalo is horrible, so here it goes: they're last in total offense, 27th in total defense, are 0-3 in their division and are relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick of all people to lead their offense. They're the worst team in the NFL, the leader for the #1 pick, and the team with the best chance at going 0-16 (and with the tough schedule that they have following this game, 0-16 doesn't sound like an unlikely possibility). So, yes, I am going with Jacksonville in this one, even if the emotional letdown after beating the Colts factor might be in play.
mj50's pick: Buffalo
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts (-8): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Indianapolis
Here's something that I bet you wouldn't have seen coming heading into the middle of October: the Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the NFL! Unfortunately, I think that this is the week that they finally get the loss and the remaining living members of the '72 Dolphins do the douchy popping the champagne after the last undefeated team loses. Here's why:
1. The combined record of the teams that Kansas City defeated in the first three weeks is 3-10, and that includes the 1-3 Browns and the 0-4 49ers. The best team they did win was the 2-2 Chargers, but I still consider that to be a fluke (at home, very exciting crowd, Norv Turner coaching a team in September, etc.). Indianapolis is much better than all three of those teams, even if they're 2-2.
2. The Colts are 13-3 since they played their first game in Lucas Oil Stadium back in 2008.
3. With Peyton Manning as QB, Indy has beaten the Chiefs in 5 out of 6 meetings.
4. The Chiefs are ranked 25th in passing defense, and that is in 3 games where the QBs they faced included Jake Delholmme and Alex Smith. Obviously, this is not good when you are about to face a team that is ranked 2nd in passing yards and a QB that hasn't thrown less than 250 yards in a game.
5. Indy will be fresh off an emotional, gut wrenching loss to the Jaguars. Expect to see them very motivated in this game and very much prepared to tear Kansas City apart.
The Colts do have a weak rushing defense, and I see Kansas City exploiting that to their advantage. Still, that's one thing that Kansas City has got going for to at least five advantages that the Colts have in their favor.
mj50's pick: Indianapolis
St. Louis Rams vs. Detroit Lions (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: St. Louis
In case you haven't heard, Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies became only the second pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter in the postseason. I love it whenever a pitcher throws either a no-hitter or a perfect game because there is nothing else that rivals it in all of sports. Think about it: is there any single game accomplishment in the NBA, NFL, or NHL that can possibly rival a no-hitter? In other words, is there anything that can make networks like ESPN and NFL Network interrupt their schedule program to give you the update or live feed on something that a player is doing during a football game just like when ESPN interrupts their programming with a live update on a pitcher's quest for a no-hitter or perfect game, or something that can make some once nobody lead the front pages of a sports website or a newspaper? And I'm not talking about a player breaking a career milestone, I'm talking about a milestone that occurs in a single game. There just isn't.
mj50's pick: St. Louis
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Atlanta
I was about to side with Cleveland for a while just because of their play in the last two weeks, the resurrection of Peyton Hillis and the fact that they are playing at home. But then I remembered that the Falcons have won three straight (and could have started the season 4-0 had it not been for the Rashad Mendenhall game-winning TD against them in week 1), should do a better job stopping Hillis since they have done a much better job stopping the run this season than the Bengals and Ravens this season, and have been better in almost every aspect of the game this season. So there you go.
mj50's pick: Cleveland
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Cincinnati
The Antonio Bryant Bowl that almost happened! How uneventful! Anyways, Tampa was carved up by Seneca Wallace this season and their rushing defense is ranked in the bottom ten, so expect to see Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson all with breakout games. Oh, and the defense for Cincinnati is ranked sixth. What I'm trying to say is that the 2-0 start for Tampa was an even bigger fluke than the 3-0 start by Kansas City.
mj50's pick: Cincinnati
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers (-1): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Chicago
Mike Martz is a stubborn ass! How can you keep seeing your QB continually get sacked and still call for seven step drops? Anyways, about the game...I really don't know what to tell you. A week ago, I said that there was no way that the Bears were going to lose. But then the O-line got torn a new one by the Giants front seven and Cutler got a concussion that would make him unable to play this game, an I have been going back and forth deciding my pick for this game. I guess I'm takingChicago because I value Todd Collin's experience over Jimmy Clausen's inexperience. Also, Julius Peppers is playing his former team, and don't tell me that he won't be very active in that game! Otherwise, it's really more of a toss up.
mj50's pick: Carolina
Green Bay Packers (2.5) vs. Washington Redskins: Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Green Bay
The injuries that the Packers have suffered are a bit of concern heading into this game. But, if there's one thing I have learned this season, is to never trust the Redskins after a victory, because there is a good chance that they will disappoint the next week. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers facing the 31st ranked passing defense? It's practically a match made in heaven for Green Bay!
mj50's pick: Washington
HALFTIME! This week, it's Zach Galifianakis's monologue the time he hosted "SNL" last season. It's a shame that for every monologue like this one, there are 10 others that are terrible. Makes you wonder why more comedians don't host the show.
New York Giants vs. Houston Texans (-3): Sunday- 12:00 p.m.
mj15's pick: Houston
Unlike last week's game of which I am hoping my mind forgets about it as soon as possible, the Giants will face a Houston team that is much better than Chicago in that their running game is one of the best in the league, their offensive line isn't terrible, and their main weapons are more explosive. Plus, the Giants are on the road where they have been outscored 82-21 in their last two games. Now, I'm not saying that the Giants are terrible. I'm just saying that, compared to Houston, they are not as good and, therefore, will lose and fall 2-3 in the season because of it.
mj50's pick: New York
New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals: Sunday- 3:05 p.m.
mj15's pick: New Orleans
Look, I know that the '10 Saints haven't looked like the '09 Saints so far and that they have yet to beat a team by more than 7 points. But they're still really good! Also, do you really expect me to pick them to lose to a team that got blown out 41-10 last week and has Max Hall of all people starting at QB for them? I don't think so.
mj50's pick: New Orleans
San Diego Chargers (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders: Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Diego
Another possible upset, only because the Chargers have yet to win on the road and it's a divisional matchup between longtime rivals. However, Phillip Rivers has yet to lose to the Raiders as a starting quarterback and the Chargers have not lost to Oakland at all since...week 4 of the 2003 season, when Drew Brees was their starting quarterback and Rivers into his senior year at North Carolina State. So just through recent history alone, I'm going with the Bolts.
mj50's pick: Oakland
Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7): Sunday- 3:15 p.m.
mj15's pick: Tennessee
Hey, got to pick some type of a true upset this week and this is the game where I'm leaning the most toward the underdog out of any other this week. Also, Chris Johnson is due for another big game this year after three disappointing games in a row and I don't think Vince Young has had a bad game in Texas soil since his junior year in Texas.
mj50's pick: Dallas
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-3): Sunday- 7:20 p.m.
mj15's pick: San Fransisco
Of course the fact that Michael Vick's isn't playing will be a huge difference maker. But another big injury that I think should also affect the Eagles this week will be the rib injury to RB LeSean McCoy. In 4 games, he has rushed for an average of 5.5 yards per carry and for 4 TDs, becoming one of the early pleasant surprises of the 2010 season. If he is also out from this game (right now, he is listed as questionable), expect to see the team's rushing game to suffer not as much, but more than the team's passing game with the start of the Kevin Kolb era version 2.0. Besides, San Fransisco has got to win at some point! And with them playing at home where they had their best game of the season (week 2 against New Orleans), this is the right stage to get it.
mj50's pick: San Fransisco
Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets (-4): Monday- 7:30 p.m.
mj15's pick: New York
We have some great storylines heading into this game. First, there's Randy Moss playing his first game back on the Vikings Then, there's Santonio Holmes coming back from his 4 game suspension and the shot Darell Revis took at Moss for not trying earlier this season against the Jets. And then..there's Brett Favre, playing his first game against his former team since leaving and his first game overall since Deadspin revealed the phone messages and cock photos that he sent to Jenn Sterger (note: don't click on this if you aren't comfortable with seeing Favre's dong). You could fill Monday Night Countdown with those storylines all by itself!
I will give you my explanation for why the Jets should win in a paragraph. But first, another LDT Update...and it's a good one! In this past Sunday's game against Buffalo, Tomlinson rushed for 19 carries, 133 yards and 2 TDs, making it his best rushing performance of the season. I don't know about you, but I think that this calls for some Electric Glide time. Hit it!
God, I hope he has as much of these good games as possible!
Anyways, I have four big keys going into New York's favor. First, since Favre has wanted to play with Moss for years, he should throw the ball to him as much as possible, which means that he should also throw a lot of INT friendly balls to Revis Island. Second, since stumbling out of the gates terribly, the Jets (and specifically Mark Sanchez) have bounced back three straight games and have looked like that Super Bowl favorites that many thought they would be whereas the Vikings have been nothing short of disappointing. Third, New York's rushing defense has been superb, ranked 4th in the league and has yet to allow a RB rush for over 123 yards under Rex Ryan, so expect to see Adrian Peterson's impact in this game diminish. Fourth, it's Brett Favre's first game playing against the Jets since the miserable ending to his one year on the team. I have a good feeling that that Jets crowd should be loud, hostile and very distracting when he gets on the field. In other words, expect the Vikings' 1-2 record to improve as much as ESPN will mention the Favre-Sterger story during the telecast: not at all.
mj50's pick: Minnesota
RECAP
The Undertaker at "WrestleMania" Lock of the Week: New Orleans over Arizona
The Upset Defeating Man O'War Upset of the Week: Tennessee over Dallas
The "Community" vs. "30 Rock" I'm Not Sure Pick: Chicago over Carolina
You can come back around the same time next week as I reveal to you my week 6 picks while recapping my final record in week 5. I will be back in a few hours for another installment of "End of the Week." Otherwise, enjoy the games, everyone!
Sincerely,
Your pal: mj15
If you have any opinions on today's post, or if you just have any suggestions or tips for my next blog entry, e-mail me at: mj1599@aol.com. Your e-mails are greatly appreciated.
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